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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 20

Feb 20, 2013

Wednesday, February 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is awaiting Wednesday afternoon’s release
of the latest minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC
meeting from early January. These minutes in the past few
months have been market-movers. Traders and investors will
scrutinize the minutes for clues regarding upcoming Federal
Reserve monetary policy moves. The U.S. Treasury markets,
with their recent rising bond yields, are hinting that the
Fed’s very accommodative monetary policy of the past few
years will start to wind down in the not-too-distant future.
That’s also an underlying bearish factor for the raw
commodity sector. Other U.S. economic data due for release
Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications
survey, the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail
sales reports, the producer price index, and new residential
construction.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today and hit
another fresh five-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last
1,535.00 and then at 1,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Monday’s low of 1,515.30 and then at
1,500.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early
trading and poked to a fresh four-month high overnight.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 2,786.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 2,758.25 and
then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are near steady today and hovering near
a five-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Tuesday’s low of 13,975 and then at
13,900. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Tuesday’s high of 14,021 and then at 14,100.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Prices
are still not far above the recent contract low. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even
with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 143 4/32 and then
at 143 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 142 19/32 and then at last week’s low of 142 9/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.13.0 and then
at Tuesday’s high of 131.21.5. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 131.05.0 and then at 131.00.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher early today and
hovering near a six-week high. The greenback bulls are
showing power recently to suggest a market bottom is in
place. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at last week’s high of 80.83 and then at the
January high of 80.99. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.50
and then at the overnight low of 80.35. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today on mild
profit taking, and are seeing limited buying interest from a
firmer U.S. dollar. The bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. In April Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high
of $97.49 and then at $98.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $96.82 and then at
$96.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. Corn and wheat were near
slightly lower and soybeans were higher. Bean bulls are
seeing buying interest on fresh demand news from China and
dry weather in Argentina. Bulls are hoping this will be the
week that grain futures prices pull out of their “February
Break” funk. My bias is that soybeans cannot continue to
separate from the other two grain markets on price action.
That means the present soybean market rally is just short
covering and is about to run out of gas, or that the corn
and wheat markets are about to turn the corner and rally,
to put in market lows. How the grain markets close on
Friday could provide a solid clue on which of the above
scenarios is the case in the grain futures markets.


 

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