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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 5

Feb 05, 2013

Tuesday, February 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European stock markets and the Euro
currency were firmer despite news that Euro zone retail
sales fell sharply in December, at down 0.8% on the month
and down 3.4% on an annual basis. This data underscores the
European Union has a tough road of economic recovery ahead.
Other EU data released Tuesday did continue to show slight
improvement as the Euro Zone PMI rose to 48.6 in January
from 47.2 in December. Escalating political scandal in Spain
has hit the local IBEX stock market recently. Spanish bond
yields have also been on the rise recently. There are also
concerns about an upcoming election in Italy. Still, Spanish
and Italian bond yields are not near the critical 6% or
above levels that prompted such concerns just a few months
ago. Italian bond yields are presently around 4.4% and
Spanish bond yields are near 5.25%. On Thursday the European
Central Bank holds its monthly meeting, including a press
conference by ECB chief Mario Draghi. Also later this week
China will issue a fresh batch of economic data, including
inflation and trade balance reports. The market place will
closely scrutinize the ECB meeting results and the data
coming out of China. U.S. economic data due for release
Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson
Redbook retail sales reports, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism
index, the ISM non-manufacturing report on business, and the
global services PMI.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today
and are hovering near a five-year high. Bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
last week’s high of 1,510.00 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,490.50
and then at 1,475.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent
choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
2,750.00 and then at last week’s high of 2,764.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 2,709.00 and
then at 2,698.50. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near
a five-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 13,867 and then at Monday’s low of
13,810. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at last week’s high of 13,960 and then at 14,000.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and
hovering near Monday’s contract low. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 143 even and then at 143 16/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the contract low of 142 5/32 and
then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today and
hovering near a 4.5-month low. Bears have downside near-
term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 131.15.0 and then at the overnight high
of 131.21.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.00.0 and
then at Monday’s low of 130.23.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady early today.
Greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 79.81 and then at 80.00.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.49
and then at Monday’s low of 79.17. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today and hovering near a
4.5-month high. Bulls still have some upside momentum as a
two-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In
March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $97.50 and then at $98.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at Monday’s low of $95.89 and
then at $95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. Corn and soybean
bulls still have some technical momentum on their side but
need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Wheat bulls are
fading. Dry weather in Argentina is still a bullish factor
for corn and soybeans. Grain traders are also awaiting
Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.
 

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