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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 29

Jan 29, 2013

Tuesday, January 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early electronic trading.
Asian and European stocks were firmer overnight in
uneventful dealings. There was upbeat German consumer
confidence data released Tuesday, which gave the European
investors some better risk appetite. It’s been a quieter
trading week so far. However, the U.S. economic data pace
picks up starting Wednesday. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC
meeting and interest rate announcement occurs on Wednesday
along with the fourth-quarter advance gross domestic product
estimate. The U.S. employment report is out Friday morning.
Look for the markets to react to the aforementioned reports.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the
weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales
reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the consumer
confidence index, and the FOMC meeting starts.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker in early trading today on
some profit taking after on Monday hitting a five-year high.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 1,500.00
and then at 1,510.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at 1,486.80 and then at last week’s low of 1,475.10.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early on some profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,740.25 and
then at 2,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at last
week’s low of 2,707.75 and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today on profit taking.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
13,780 and then at 13,750. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 13,830 and then at Monday’s
high of 13,858. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering in a bear market. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage and have recently gained downside
momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 144 even and then at this week’s high of 144 11/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of 143
14/32 and then at this week’s low of 143 3/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering. Bears still have some downside near-term
technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this
week’s high of 131.16.5 and then at 131.22.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.04.5 and
then at this week’s low of 130.30.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. Not
much new. Greenback bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 80.00 and then at 80.17. Shorter-
term support is seen at Monday’s low of 79.78 and then at
79.61. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today and hit a
fresh 4.5-month high overnight. Bulls have some upside
momentum as a seven-week-old uptrend is in place on the
daily bar chart. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $96.97
and then at $97.50. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $96.00 and then at Monday’s low of $95.47.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were slightly higher overnight. It’s modest “risk
on” day in the market place Tuesday as most commodity
futures markets are trading firmer. Dry weather in
Argentina and the U.S. Plains and Corn Belt is still
bullish for the grains. The markets are in a pause mode at
present, which is not bearish.
 

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