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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 30

Jan 30, 2013

Wednesday, January 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The two-day U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting ends Wednesday
afternoon with its official policy statement to follow. Most
market watchers expect the Fed to keep U.S. monetary policy
unchanged—meaning continuing asset purchases and a very
accommodative stance. However, traders will also be watching
for any nuances that are included in the Fed statement,
which could provide early clues on when the Fed will stop
its asset purchases. Traders Wednesday morning will also
closely scrutinize the U.S. fourth-quarter advance gross
domestic product estimate. Analysts expect that figure to
come in at up a paltry 1% on an annual basis. European
stocks were mostly near unchanged Wednesday, save for a
weaker Italian stock market. Euro zone consumer sentiment
continues to creep higher, according to the latest figures
released from the European Commission Wednesday. The Euro
currency continues to rally and hit a fresh 13-month high
against the U.S. dollar amid better investor sentiment
toward the European Union and its handling of its sovereign
debt crisis. Other U.S. economic data due for release
Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications
survey, the ADP national employment report, and the weekly
DOE energy stocks report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady in early trading
today and did poke to another five-year high overnight.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,515.00 and then at
1,525.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
1,500.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1,491.20. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
2,750.00 and then at last week’s high of 2,768.75. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,740.75
and then at 2,725.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 13,850 and
then at Tuesday’s low of 13,820. Buy stops likely reside
just above technical resistance at 13,950 and then at
14,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and
careened to a fresh contract low. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 143 even and then at the overnight high
of 143 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
contract low of 142 19/32 and then at 142 8/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 3.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have downside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.06.0 and then
at this week’s high of 131.16.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 130.30.0 and then at 130.24.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today and hit a
fresh five-week low overnight. Greenback bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 79.66 and then at 79.80. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 79.40 and then at
79.20. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today and hit another
fresh 4.5-month high overnight. Bulls have upside momentum
as a seven-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at the overnight high of $98.24 and
then at $99.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $97.32 and then at $97.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher overnight. It’s another “risk on” day
in the market place Wednesday as most commodity futures
markets are trading firmer and the key outside markets are
bullish—weaker U.S. dollar and firmer crude oil. Dry
weather in Argentina and the U.S. Plains and Corn Belt is
still bullish for the grains.
 

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