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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 31

Jan 31, 2013

Thursday, January 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

(Note: I’ve been posting daily dispatches on Twitter for
quite some time. I invite you to follow me, and it’s free:
@jimwyckoff )

European stocks were weaker Thursday and the Euro currency
fell following a reported drop in German retail sales and
rise in German unemployment. Italian government bond yields
rose Thursday to multi-week highs. Still, the Euro currency
is on a bull run versus the U.S. dollar and investor
sentiment toward the European Union is on the upswing.
Markets are still digesting the FOMC meeting that ended
Wednesday afternoon with its official policy statement
indicating a still very easy U.S. monetary policy—meaning
continuing bond purchases by the Fed on a monthly basis.
Wednesday’s surprisingly weak U.S. GDP report which showed
economic contraction for the first time in over three years
is also on traders’ and investors’ minds. Many in the market
place are calling the GDP report an anomaly and saying the
next quarter U.S. GDP number will show economic growth. A
fresh batch of U.S. economic data Thursday will be examined
for further clues on the health of the U.S. economy. The
market place is also focusing on Friday morning’s U.S.
employment report for January. The key non-farm payrolls
figure is forecast to come in at up 165,000 versus up
155,000 the previous month. The unemployment rate is
forecast at 7.8%, which is unchanged from the previous
month. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes
the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job cuts
report, the employment cost index, personal income and
outlays, and the ISM Chicago business survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady in early trading
today and are hovering near a five-year high. Bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at this week’s high of 1,505.90 and then
at 1,515.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at this week’s low of 1,491.20 and then at 1,475.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today on
profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,736.25 and
then at this week’s high of 2,751.75. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at this week’s low of 2,716.25 and then at
2,707.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 13,800 and
then at 13,750. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Wednesday’s high of 13,900 and then at 13,950.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and are
seeing a short-covering bounce after hitting a fresh
contract low on Wednesday. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 143 24/32 and
then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 143 7/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on short
covering. Bears still have some downside near-term
technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 131.18.0 and then at 131.24.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.08.0 and
then at this week’s low of 130.30.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer early today
on tepid short covering in a bear market. Greenback bears
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 79.40 and then at 79.66.
Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 79.21 and
then at 79.01. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today on some mild profit
taking after prices hit a 4.5-month high on Wednesday. Bulls
still have some upside momentum as a seven-week-old uptrend
is in place on the daily bar chart. In March Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
Wednesday’s high of $98.24 and then at $99.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of
$97.32 and then at $97.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were weaker overnight on corrective pullbacks from
recent gains. The key outside markets are mildly bearish
today—firmer U.S. dollar and weaker crude oil. Traders will
closely scrutinize today’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Dry weather in Argentina and the U.S. Plains and Corn Belt
is still bullish for the grains.
 

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