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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Mar 5

Mar 05, 2013

Tuesday, March 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Overnight China announced a new spending/stimulus initiative
to keep its economy on an upward glide. China officials are
expecting their GDP to be at 7.5% growth in 2013. This news
is a bullish factor for the raw commodity sector and for
world stock markets. There was more weak economic data
coming out of the European Union Tuesday. The Markit firm
said its composite purchasing managers’ index for the Euro
zone declined to 47.9 in February from 48.6 in January. Any
reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. Many expected the
Market PMI to come in worse than it did. Also, the PMI
report was somewhat offset by news that the German
purchasing managers index rose to 54.7 in February from 54.1
in an earlier estimate. There is a meeting of European Union
leaders in Brussels early this week to address their
sovereign debt crisis and other economic matters.
Discussions will likely include Italy, following last week’s
elections that showed the country is wavering on its
pervious austerity commitments. So far, no major
pronouncements have come from that meeting. Arguably the
most important U.S. economic report of the month, the
employment situation report, is due out Friday morning. The
European central bank also holds its monthly meeting and
press conference on Thursday. U.S. economic data due for
release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and
Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the IBD/TIPP economic
optimism index, the ISM non-manufacturing report on
business, and the global services PMI.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit a
fresh five-year high overnight. The bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,540.00 and
then at 1,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at 1,515.00 and then at 1,500.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the February
high of 2,786.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,761.00 and then at
2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh
five-year high overnight. The bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 14,100 and then at 14,050. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
14,200 and then at 14,250. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bulls are
fading and need to show fresh power soon. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at 144 even and then at 144
13/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
143 15/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls
still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of
131.23.0 and then at 131.27.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 131.14.5 and then at 131.11.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today on profit
taking. The greenback bulls still have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 82.500 and then at last week’s high
of 82.795. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 82.165 and then at 82.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Prices are
hovering near a nine-week low. Bears still have downside
technical momentum. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of
$90.70 and then at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $90.00 and then at $89.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. The key “outside
markets” are in a modestly bullish posture for the grains
today, as the U.S. dollar index is weaker and crude oil
prices are slightly higher. There have been better moisture
patterns in the central U.S. that are working to alleviate
the severe soil shortages in the region and that’s and
underlying bearish factor for the grain markets. Traders
are awaiting Friday morning’s USDA supply and demand
report.
 

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