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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Mar 6

Mar 06, 2013

Wednesday, March 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The buzz of the market place Wednesday morning is the new
all-time record high posted by the Dow Jones Industrial
Average on Tuesday. The general media picked up on that news
and featured it heavily Tuesday evening. When the general
media picks up on a trending market move, it’s an early clue
that market move has probably just about run its course.
Stock markets in Asia and Australia rallied Wednesday, in
the aftermath of the U.S. stock market rally. European
stocks were also mostly firmer Wednesday. A German five-year
bond auction Wednesday produced the lowest yields so far
this year, which shows European investors are still wary
regarding a flare-up in the EU sovereign debt crisis
following the recent Italian elections that produced no
clear victor. Fresh EU economic data released overnight
showed EU exports dropped by 0.9% in the fourth quarter,
compared to the third quarter. That’s the fastest quarterly
drop in almost four years. Reports overnight said South
Korea’s central bank added around 20 metric tons of gold to
its official reserves in February. That’s around a 25%
increase in holdings by South Korea, as the country’s
central bank does some value-buying. Arguably the most
important U.S. economic report of the month, the employment
situation report for February, is due out Friday morning.
The key non-farm payroll number is expected to come in at up
157,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast at 7.8%.
The European Central Bank also holds its monthly meeting and
press conference on Thursday. While the ECB is expected to
announce no major changes to its monetary policy, traders
will closely scrutinize ECB chief Mario Draghi’s remarks at
his press conference following the meeting. U.S. economic
data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA
mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment
report, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, the weekly
DOE energy stocks report, and the Federal Reserve’s beige
book.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit
another fresh five-year high overnight. The bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,550.00 and then at 1,565.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,537.20 and then
at Tuesday’s low of 1,524.60. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading and
hit a fresh five-month high overnight. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 2,809.25 and then at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the 2,780.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of
2,761.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh
all-time record high overnight. The bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 14,250 and then at
14,200. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 14,300 and then at 14,350. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower again early today. Bulls
are fading amid the rallying U.S. stock market and better
investor risk appetite. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 143 21/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 143 even and then at 142 16/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls
still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage
but are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 131.17.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 131.23.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
131.09.0 and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The greenback
bulls still have the near-term technical advantage as prices
hover near a six-month high. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of
82.515 and then at last week’s high of 82.795. Shorter-term
support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 82.165 and then at
82.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Prices are
not that far above Monday’s nine-week low. Bears still have
downside technical momentum. In April Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight
high of $91.17 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at $90.00 and then at this week’s
low of $89.30. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. There have been
better moisture patterns in the central U.S. that are
working to alleviate the severe soil shortages in the
region and that’s and underlying bearish factor for the
grain markets. Traders pausing at mid-week, awaiting Friday
morning’s USDA supply and demand report.
 

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