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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Mar 7

Mar 07, 2013

Thursday, March 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The Euro currency and European stock markets were boosted
Thursday by a successful Spanish bond auction that saw good
investor demand and lower yields. The European Central Bank
holds its monthly meeting and press conference on Thursday.
While the ECB is expected to announce no major changes to
its monetary policy, traders will closely scrutinize ECB
chief Mario Draghi’s remarks at his press conference
following the meeting. The Bank of England’s monthly meeting
Thursday saw no change in interest rates or monetary policy,
as expected. The Bank of Japan also held a policy meeting
Thursday that saw no major changes. The most important U.S.
economic report of the month, the employment situation
report for February, is due out Friday morning. The key non-
farm payroll number is expected to come in at up 157,000,
while the unemployment rate is forecast at 7.8%. China
issues its monthly trade data on Friday, and that data, too,
will be closely monitored. U.S. economic data due for
release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report,
the Challenger job cuts report, the U.S. trade report, and
ICSC chain store sales trends.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today and
hovering near a five-year high. The bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,550.00 and then at 1,565.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,537.20 and then at
Tuesday’s low of 1,524.60. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading and
hovering near a five-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at Wednesday’s high of
2,809.25 and then at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the 2,780.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 2,761.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near
the all-time record high. The bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 14,255 and
then at 14,200. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Wednesday’s record high of 14,305 and then at
14,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early today.
Bulls have faded amid the rallying U.S. stock market and
better investor risk appetite this week. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 143 5/32 and then at 143 16/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at this week’s low of 142 23/32 and
then at 142 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today.
Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 131.10.5 and then at Wednesday’s high of 131.17.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at this week’s low of 131.04.0
and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today on a corrective,
profit-taking pullback. The greenback bulls still have the
near-term technical advantage as prices hover near a six-
month high. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at this week’s high of 82.865 and then
at 83.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 82.500 and then
at this week’s low of 82.165. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today, on short
covering. Prices are not that far above this week’s nine-
week low. Bears still have some downside technical momentum.
In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at this week’s high of $91.17 and then at
$92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$90.00 and then at this week’s low of $89.33. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on short covering. The key
“outside markets” are also modestly bullish for the grains
early today, as the U.S. dollar index is weaker and crude
oil prices are firmer. Traders will scrutinize this
morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Traders are also
awaiting Friday morning’s USDA supply and demand report.
 

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