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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 9

May 09, 2012

Wednesday, May 9--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The European Union sovereign debt and financial crisis has
gone from the back burner of the market place, to the front
burner, and from a simmer to a medium boil. Greece’s
political leaders are scrambling to form a government, with
the liberal wing leader saying he wants to scrap austerity
measures. Meantime, Spanish bonds are trading back above
the critical 6% level as a major Spanish bank is in
trouble. These latest, serious developments in the EU debt
saga are as troubling as any that have occurred over the
two-plus year ordeal. It’s becoming apparent to many market
watchers, including this one, that Greece will have trouble
staying a member of the EU. Many are more worried about
Spain than Greece. Investor confidence in the EU financial
markets (save for Germany) is rapidly waning. What could
have been the lazy, hazy days of summer approaching for
traders and investors may now turn out to be a summer of
discontent for the market place.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,360.00 and then at this week’s high of 1,370.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at this week’s low of
1,342.10 and then at the March low of 1,338.80. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 2,626.25 and then at this week’s high of 2,648.25. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of
2,583.25 and then at 2,575.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Tuesday’s low of 12,760 and then 12,700. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,800 and then at 12,850. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh contract high
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight contract high of 145 4/32 and then at 145 16/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 144 16/43 and then at the
overnight low of 144 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh contract high
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
contract high of 133.08.0 and then at 133.16.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.26.5 and
then at this week’s low of 132.19.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are higher and hit a fresh three-week high overnight
on more safe-haven buying interest and more short covering.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the April high of 80.38 and then at 80.50.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.97
and then at this week’s low of 79.63. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today as bears have
downside technical momentum on their side after prices hit a
4.5-month low Monday. A bearish pennant pattern may now be
forming on the daily bar chart. In June crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high
of $97.39 and then at this week’s high of $98.24. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $96.00 and then
at this week’s low of $95.34. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were weaker in overnight trading as it’s another
commodity-market-bearish “risk off” trading day today. The
key “outside markets” are bearish for grains--lower crude
oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar index. Focus of grain
traders is now on Thursday’s latest USDA supply and demand
report, and on Corn Belt weather forecasts.
 

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