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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 19

Nov 19, 2012

Monday, November 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

There is a bit more of a “risk-on” trader and investor
mentality in the market place to start the new trading week
Monday. European and Asian stock markets were higher and the
Euro currency also rallied on notions the Obama
administration and the U.S. congress are moving closer to a
deal to avoid the “fiscal cliff” implementation of tax
increases and spending cuts that would be implemented in
January, should no agreement be reached. The better investor
risk appetite comes despite still-high tensions in the
Middle East. Israel is taking a very hard line against
Hamas, including heavy air strikes in the Gaza Strip over
the weekend and the possibility of moving ground troops into
Gaza. Such could agitate Egypt and further inflame Iran. The
situation could escalate quickly, which would in turn likely
produce significant safe-haven demand for gold. Recent
history shows that the gold market tends to lag when
potentially destabilizing geopolitical events occur, but
when those events then escalate a bit, gold then kicks into
a higher safe-haven demand gear and rallies. There were
reports Monday that there may be negotiations occurring
between Israel and Egypt on de-escalating the present
situation. There is a meeting of Euro zone officials Tuesday
on when to disburse the next tranche of bailout money to
cash-starved Greece, and on what terms Greece will be held
in order to receive the money. If EU officials write off
Greek debt, then other financially troubled EU countries
would likely want the same. German officials Monday
reiterated opposition to any Greek debt write-down. The
overall European Union sovereign debt crisis remains a major
uncertainty and major worry in the market place.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at 1,375.00 and then at 1,386.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,360.40 and then at 1,350.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering in a bear market. The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,560.00 and then at 2,575.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,534.50 and then at 2,525.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today on short covering
in a bear market. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 12,600 and then at 12,570. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,650 and
then at 12,700. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and are
seeing some profit taking after hitting a 3.5-month high on
Friday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 151 31/32 and then at Friday’s high of 152 21/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of 151
14/32 and then at 151 even. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on
profit taking. The bulls still maintain the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 134.04.5 and then
at Friday’s high of 134.11.5. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 133.27.5 and then at last week’s low
of 133.22.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading today, on some profit taking. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 81.28 and then at last week’s high of 81.51.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.03
and then at last week’s low of 80.94. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today on the Middle East
tensions. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage as a two-month-old downtrend is in place on the
daily bar chart. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at $89.00 and then at
$90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$87.00 and then at $86.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading on some short
covering and bargain hunting. The key “outside markets” are
in a bullish posture for the grains today as the U.S.
dollar index is weaker and crude oil prices are lower.
Near-term chart damage has been inflicted in soybean, corn
and wheat futures recently.
 

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