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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 20

Nov 20, 2012

Tuesday, November 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the market place showed little reaction
to a move by credit rating agency Moody’s to downgrade
France’s sovereign credit rating. Given other major
countries have also been downgraded the past couple years,
and the fact that the credit rating agencies, themselves,
have seen their own credibility eroded, the market place
just yawned at the news. There is a meeting of Euro zone
officials in Brussels on Tuesday on when to disburse the
next tranche of bailout money to Greece, and on what terms
Greece will be held in order to receive the money. It’s
widely expected Greece will get the bailout money, as the EU
doesn’t have much choice if the bloc wants the financially
troubled EU country to stay afloat and stay in the union.
Spanish and Italian bond yields have been stable to falling,
which hints the EU debt crisis is at least not worsening at
present. Traders and investors continue to keep one eye on
the simmering situation between Israel and Hamas. Any
further escalation in that situation could drive oil prices
higher and see fresh flight-to-safety buying of gold, the
U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries. U.S. economic data due for
release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and
Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and new residential
construction. Fed Chairman Bernanke gives a speech in New
York.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at 1,393.00 and then at 1,400.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,363.70 and
then at 1,350.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
Monday’s high of 2,594.25 and then at 2,600.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 2,575.00 and then at 2,550.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 12,700
and then at Monday’s low of 12,640. Buy stops likely reside
just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of 12,755
and then at 12,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today and are
seeing more profit taking. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 151 23/32 and then at Monday’s high of 151 31/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of 151 1/32
and then at 150 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on
more profit taking. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 134.00.5 and then
at Monday’s high of 134.04.5. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
last week’s low of 133.22.0 and then at 133.16.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading today, on a corrective bounce from Monday’s
selling pressure. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.05 and then
at Monday’s high of 81.28. Shorter-term support is seen at
Monday’s low of 80.83 and then at 80.68. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today on a corrective
pullback from solid gains scored on Monday. The Middle East
tensions will continue to limit selling pressure in crude.
In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $90.00 and then at $91.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $88.00 and then at
$87.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Expect quieter
trading conditions the rest of the week due to the U.S.
Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Near-term chart damage
has been inflicted in soybean, corn and wheat futures
recently. My bias is still that there is not strong
downside price pressure left in corn and soybeans.
 

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