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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Can Sunday Night’s Trade Be Higher Again?

Sep 06, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 6, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are higher this morning in a light volume, overnight trade. Warm temps are headed back into the cornbelt with the latest models reducing rainfall until late next week. Soybean traders will be adjusting positions accordingly to the noon weather forecast as we go into the close. Could it be another wild one on Sunday night?

Through August 30, ethanol production for the year is 7.0% under last year. That beats USDA’s goal of corn for ethanol of a 7.2% decline year over year. USDA was projecting 4.650 billion bushels for old crop corn for ethanol. It appears they are right on target.

Weekly export sales data will be released at 7:30 this morning.

                           Estimates                       Estimates      
                            2012/13                         2013/14                    
Corn           (-100,000)-100,000         450,000-650,000 
Soybeans    (-100,000)-50,000          550,000-800,000
Soymeal           25,000-75,000          100,000-175,000
Soyoil                   zero-20,000                zero-5,000
Wheat                      ******                  425,000-600,000 

Statistics Canada will report this morning at 7:30 on  the canola and wheat ending stocks for the 2012/13 marketing year.  Trade estimates are for all wheat 5.13 mmt, Durum 1.11 mmt, and canola .73 mmt.

Corn basis is tumbling as elevators and processors have enough to carry them over until harvest gets into full swing. Western elevators dropped bids sharply yesterday while eastern end-users are remaining firm. The strong basis is enticing farmers to harvest early to take advantage of premiums. Example: mid-October basis is 1.00 to 1.20 lower than current prices. Bean basis has stabilized as harvest is still several weeks away.

Looking ahead into next week, traders will be monitoring weekend rainfall in the midsection of the cornbelt and preparing for the USDA Crop Production Report on Thursday at 11:00.

Lean hog futures remain firm as futures and cash index narrow the gap. Fund buying has stepped in to support October futures and push them into new contract highs. This also is causing the confident shorts to liquidate. Pork cutout values were down 1.11 on Thursday.

A few cattle traded in NE at 194 to 195 and in IA at 193 to 196 yesterday afternoon.  Today is the last day Tyson will take Zilmax fed cattle. Beef cutout values were lower with choice down .70 and select -.22. CME Feeder Index was up .08 at 156.08.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +1 1/2
  • Nov Beans   +1 3/4
  • Sep Wheat   +3
  • Oct Cattle  -.17
  • Oct Hogs    +.00
  • Sep Dlr     -.08
  • Sep S&P     -.75
  • Oct Crude   +.22
  • Oct Gold    -3.80


View the Chart of the Day

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