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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

China Delegation Comes to Iowa

Feb 14, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 14, 2012 at 5:20 am. Grains mixed on profit taking and China’s visit to the US. The events in Greece and the bombing of Israeli embassies yesterday have heightened the potential volatility for commodities. Crude oil is very sensitive to Iran’s retaliation as shipping companies are not willing to load oil out of Iranian ports. The EU finance ministers will meet on Wednesday to decide on releasing the monies to Greece. There are comments out of EU that suggest this will not be a slam dunk approval. NOPA will release their January crush report this morning and is expected to come in at 144.5 million bu. with soyoil stocks expected at 1.977 billion lbs. The Vice President of China will be traveling with his delegation on Wednesday to Iowa at which time he is expect to announce and ink a new export deal for soybeans. Rich Nelson did a nice job of explaining the likelihood of this agreement at Allendale’s Monday Research meeting. We can email those comments to you just click here and request Nelson’s Comments. Ukraine Ag Minister reported the winter wheat crop is 67% good and 33% poor. That is a far cry from the meteorologist last week saying 40 to 60% of Ukraine’s wheat was dead from winter kill. Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc. comments on weather in the latest GFS Model has changed the timing of rainfall in the first week but second week of forecast is advertising greater amounts of rain for Argentina and Southern Brazil. Meat product continues to be the problem that haunts packers and feedlots. The packers are unable to get retail prices up to a level which can support stronger fed cattle prices during this tight fed supply period. Choice product was up .57 and select was up .09. Futures continue to follow the direction of stock indexes. Traders assume higher stock prices suggest things are getting better and that means retail can support higher levels. Pork cutout values were lower on Monday. Futures slipped below chart support on the close Monday as well. Can turn around Tuesday get the hog market back in an uptrend? Allendale 2012 Road Series will meet in Carrington ND on February 24, 2012 and in Riverside IA on March 6.
 
Markets as of 5:20AM
Corn    -1 to -2                        Live Cattle     +10 to +20                  US Dollar Index         +.10
Beans +3 to +5                      Lean Hogs      +10 to +20                  Crude Oil                    +.54
Wheat -2 to -4                        S&P Index      +1.00                           Gold                            -6.20
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Hogs settled below the 50 day moving average, a bearish technical signal. There is not much to support this market immediately below until the 86.50 area.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Our favored forecaster, Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc., tells us of concern about this weekend’s temperatures in the far Northern Plains. Temps hit down from -10 to -25 degrees in parts of South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana with no insulating snow cover.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.comwww.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

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