Corn Planting Eight Days ahead of Average
May 01, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 1, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybeans futures are lower as planting rate exceeds expectations. Producers were busy last week as planting progress for corn was 53% which was 10% more than trade was expecting. Soybean planting was 12% compared to the trade estimate of 13%. IL and IN were 79 and 70% respectively which is 50% above average. Next USDA supply and demand report on May 10 will include adjustments from March 30th
planting intention and quarterly stocks data. The surprise could be in yield where the USDA used the 164 bushels per acre in Feb and in 6 of the past 14 years where plantings were ahead of average they raised yield. An average increase was 1.3% which would mean this year could be 166.2 bushels per acre. There also is a big question of how much of recent demand will be included in the May monthly export estimate. The Eurozone continues to enjoy a rainier pattern while even some of the drier regions in the Ukraine and Russia look to have better chances of rains next week. May Day Holiday in Europe and China will likely keep the macro markets quiet today. Japan is on holiday for the rest of week as they celebrate Golden Week. Significant show list carryover from last week could mean lower cash this week. Packer demand could offset weakness as production should pick-up due to an improvement in margins. Product is showing signs of topping after sharp rally in recent weeks. The cash cattle premium over June contract should provide support to futures. Product values were mixed. Choice was up .13 and select was down .11. Pork Cutout finally showed some strength being up 1.05 on Monday. Just announced were the dates for the Allendale Ag Leader’s Webinar Series
, go to www.allendale-inc.com
and get signed up today.
Markets as of 5:10AM
Jly Corn -4 3/4
Jly Beans -9 1/2
Jly Wheat -8
Jun Cattle -.40
Jun Hogs +.35
Jun S&P -1.25
Jun Dlr -.01
May Crude -.29
June Gold -3.30
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on for our subscribers:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Wheat found strength today and created a double top with last Friday’s high at 6.55 ½. The long-term down trend remains in place until we get a close above 6.60.
Our subscribers have access to technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
In the next day and a half Southern Missouri and the Eastern Corn belt will see rains of 0.25 to 0.75 inch. On Wednesday the Northern third of the Midwest will see 0.30 to 0.80 inch rains. The third system will hit all areas over the weekend with 0.35 to 1.00 inch. This week will see ample rains and improved soil moisture. This will be considered beneficial for the crop. A slight drying pattern is seen next week.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.