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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Crop Conditions Now In Focus

Jul 22, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 22, 2013 at 5:10 am.  Grain futures are mixed. The outside markets are providing support as world investors have a risk-on attitude this morning. Some areas of the cornbelt did not get enough rain but there is more expected this week. The GFS and Euro models are in agreement for the beginning of the week. Cool temperatures should support corn pollination this week. Tonight’s Ag Leaders Webinar will discuss pollination weather and yields. Crop conditions are anticipated by traders to be down 2 to 3% in the GTE category. Technical support in Dec corn is 4.90 ½ which a close below that level could trigger additional selling. Spreading remains the major feature as tight cash markets provide support for the nearby contracts. CFTC commitment of traders showed managed money covered shorts last week in corn and wheat. Their net positions went from -55,767 to -37,262 in corn and from -47,844 to -34,261 in wheat. They added 12,244 to their already long position in soybeans. Funds in lean hogs were near record net long position levels. Market ready hog numbers typically build from now into fall. With pork prices plowing lower since late June and cash hog prices holding their ground, you don’t have much of an incentive for packers to go after the extra numbers. Something has to give, cash pork has to gain or cash hogs have to drop. Seasonally, cash prices slip into the fall. The Cattle on Feed report was neutral on the surface. However when drilling down into the number, a negative highlight arises where we found heavyweight feeder placements (those over 800 lbs.) were 27% over last year. These cattle should finish out in October. This is suggesting cattle feeders are already taking advantage of cheaper feed prices on the horizon. Register here for the tonight’s Ag Leaders Webinar: Stalking Yields. As the issue of acreage is settled, at least for now, with the June 28th acreage report, we turn our attention to the potential yield setup for this year’s crop. Join us as Rich Nelson and a special guest agronomist break down what we could have in store.

Where do you think the "Fall Low" for December Corn will be? Take our Weekly Poll Here

Markets as of 5:10 AM

  • Dec #Corn    -2 1/2
  • Nov #Beans   +2
  • Sep #Wheat   +1 3/4
  • Aug #Cattle  Steady-Higher
  • Aug #Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Sep Dlr     -.29
  • Sep S&P     +2.00
  • Aug Crude   +.61
  • Aug Gold    +21.70


View Today’s Chart of the Day

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