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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

EU Meeting Downgraded Dollar Slides

Feb 15, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 15, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher in a quiet overnight session. The battle between Berlin and Athens continues. The EU Finance Ministers have downgraded the meeting set for today to a teleconference and set the next meeting for Monday. The ministers (or at least a few of them) concerns are that the concessions made by the Greek government may not be put into practice once the $132 billion euros is given to them. The ministers are waiting for a letter of commitment from Greece. The reluctance of EU to payout the money is supportive to the Euro and in turn negative to the dollar. Traders are waiting for the Chinese delegation to visit IA today in hopes that an announcement of a commitment to purchase US grain will be made. Export sales of beans have been announced by USDA earlier this week. Expect more choppy markets into Friday’s close as markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day. The USDA Outlook Forum next Thursday and Friday will be the next big event once the Chinese Delegation leaves the US. Cattle futures closed near contract highs on Tuesday which has supported the feedlots position to ask for more money this week, Texas is asking 126 to 127. The choice beef value increase of .73 and select up .62 will not help packer margins if they have to pay 2.00 higher for fed cattle this week. Tight supplies of market ready cattle and resistance at the retail counter by consumers is causing the squeeze on packers. Hog futures held support and bounced on technical buying. Watch for key resistance at 90.62 in April contract. Allendale 2012 Road Series will meet in Carrington ND on February 24, 2012 and in Riverside IA on March 6.
 
Markets as of 5:00AM
Corn    +1 to +2                      Live Cattle     +10 to +20                  US Dollar Index         -.30
Beans +3 to +5                      Lean Hogs      +05 to +15                  Crude Oil                    +.78
Wheat +2 to +4                      S&P Index      +7.50                           Gold                            +9.40
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Beans confirmed Monday’s breakout by holding above 38% and closing higher yesterday. We have to respect the uptrend for now. Next upside target has to be seen as 12.90 in March beans.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The National Oilseed Processors Association reports January soybean crush at 142.813 million bushels. This was a little less than expectations of 144.5 million and may be considered a little disappointing. Though the year to date (Sep – Jan) marketing year total is down 4.9% versus last year we will point out January levels were only 1% smaller. Crush needs to run equal with last year from February to August to meet USDA expectations.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.comwww.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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