Expect More Volatility Due To Long Weekend
May 24, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 24, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are mostly higher 0n short covering. Weather forecasts for next week are putting significant moisture northwest of a line from Omaha to Minneapolis. Southwest of the line .5 to 1 inches should fall and less the further east you go. The high temps pushing into the Midwest this weekend will intensify concerns for rainfall on the Monday night forecast. Weekly export sales data will be released at 7:30 this morning. Traders are expecting strong sales estimates for corn and soybeans. Trade estimate for corn 1.000 mmt to 1.300 mmt, soybeans 1.000 mmt to 1.250 mmt, meal 100 to 200 tmt, soyoil 15 to 20 tmt and wheat 350 to 550 tmt. Traders will be combing this report for switching or canceling of purchases by China. Traders are concerned about China’s reserve soybean auction today and how much more will they sell. Wheat yields are coming in from Kansas at 40 to 50 which are below expected a few weeks ago. The entire commodity markets have been under liquidation pressure this week due to macro market influences. The informal meeting in Brussels with European leaders will be discussing the possible exit of Greece from the EU. The political structure in Europe is shifting to an anti-austerity sentiment. This is causing investors looking for less risky investment. The CME Ag markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day. However the opening time for grains Monday evening will be 7:00 pm instead of the regular 5:00 pm. CME held a meeting yesterday afternoon on extending trading hours of open outcry during USDA reports, but no comments or decisions yet. We expect some short covering before the long weekend and more fireworks Monday evening. Cash cattle traded at 121.00 yesterday which is 2.00 lower than last week. Boxed beef was higher as choice was up 1.09and select was up .61. Pork values slide another 2.09. Lean hog futures have continued under pressure due to the strong dollar which suggests fewer exports. Get the Export data results by listening to the Allendale "Morning Coffee"
on YouTube at 8:00AM.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn +1 3/4
Jly Beans +11
Jly Wheat +5 1/4
Jun Cattle -.22
Jun Hogs +.07
Jun S&P +4.75
Jun Dlr +.01
Jun Crude +.72
June Gold +14.00
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Wednesday’s weak trade in live cattle has confirmed the 5/21/12 high that this market must trade above in order to resume its uptrend. The uptrend in Live Cattle is still intact as long as the 5/11 low of $114.80 holds
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
There is talk that China has cancelled some purchases of US soybeans due to negative crush margins. We currently have 1.854 million tonnes of sold old crop soybeans that have not been shipped yet for China. Our new crop bookings for China total 8.027 million tonnes.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.