First Notice Day Creates Spread Adjustments
Apr 27, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 27, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybeans futures are higher with May contracts leading the rally. We expect spreading to be a major factor again today. Yesterday it is estimated that 70,000 May/July corn were traded. World Weather Inc.’s forecast says, "There is no risk of seriously threatening cold for wheat and corn in the Midwest and the general theme of weather continues tilted toward a boost in precipitation for the northern and central Plains and Midwest." Old crop corn basis was stronger on Thursday at export terminals due to new export demand. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowers soybean crop from 44 to 43 mmt. European wheat traders are concerned about the dryness in Eastern Europe with a forecast for no moisture in the next ten days. Kansas Wheat tour starts next week and we should be seeing some results on May 3rd
. First notice day for May contracts in corn, wheat and soy-products is Monday. The trade is expecting large wheat deliveries. The Senate Agriculture Committee approved a proposed 5 year farm bill on Thursday that would cut subsidies and expand crop insurance. The outside markets are quiet this morning. The BSE/Mad Cow story doesn’t want to go away. The USDA is reportedly looking for offspring of the infected cow however there is no threat to food supplies. Cash cattle traded at 119 in the south as choice beef was .25 higher and select down .04 on Thursday. A strong close for the week would boost hopes for bulls. April cattle’s last trading day is Monday at noon. Pork cutout values continue to slide down .12. We would expect choppy trade going into the end of month. Stay tuned to Allendale research by going to www.allendale-inc.com
Markets as of 5:10AM
May Corn +4 1/2
May Beans +8 1/2
May Wheat +1 3/4
Jun Cattle +.02
Jun Hogs +.02
Jun S&P -1.75
Jun Dlr +.03
May Crude -.48
June Gold -6.60
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on for our subscribers:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Feeders attempted to rally on Thursday, but ran into resistance at the 20 day moving average. The low from two days ago at 147.85 is key support. A close below it could push markets toward 146.20.
Our subscribers have access to technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Wednesday’s weekly ethanol production report indicated production last week totaled 865,000 barrels per day. That was lower than the previous week’s 884,000 tonnes and also from last year in the same week of year at 883,000. This is rough news but slipping production rates are entirely expected by the government and the market. Unless production falls a full 4% below last year, from now through August, we will end the year over USDA hopes.
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