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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Harvest Nears Completion In Soybeans

Nov 13, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 13, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are mostly unchanged in a very quiet overnight session.

China has raised their wheat import estimate for this year from 7.5 mmt to 8 mmt due to this year’s poor harvest.

In the US, soybean harvest as of Sunday is 91% complete compared to 86% last week and 92% average. Corn harvest is 84% complete versus 79% average. Winter Wheat planting was 95% planted versus 93% average. Winter wheat condition improved 2% to 65% good/excellent compared to 36% last year.

The weather forecast is favorable for soybean harvest at least through the weekend.

Funds sold an estimated net 6,000 corn contracts and bought 6,000 soybean contracts. They were even on wheat.

Bloomberg News ran a story that America’s diet changes are causing questions about wheat flour demand. They cited 1 out 3 Americans are reducing wheat flour consumption while only 1% is affected by a gluten-free dietary disorder.

USDA will update the FSA acreage data for October and November later today. The October data was delayed due to the government shutdown.

Gulf basis for soybeans was weaker on Tuesday while corn was steady. Our customers were telling us of stronger bids at interior markets.

President Obama picks new CFTC Chairman Timothy Massad to replace Gary Gensler. He comes from the Treasury Department and as no background whatsoever in Ag Commodities.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said Tuesday he believes the economy will need substantial central bank stimulus for some time to come in a speech he repeated from Friday.

The CME says they will lower the margin requirement for soybean and wheat contracts which will be effective after the close today.

Cash hog weakness pressures futures as IA-MN runs were larger than expected while weights continue to climb. This trend is "pulling the rug" from under those expecting reduced slaughter due to PEDv. Pork cutout value is up .39 to 95.24. The cash hog index remains below the Dec futures contract.

Cash cattle hopes of a higher trade this week have now moved to looking for steady prices. The showlists are a little larger this week and packer margins are in the red. Fed cattle supplies are expected to get tighter in December and through the 1st quarter of 2014. Beef cutout values are lower with choice down .53 and select down 1.20. the CME feeder Index is 165.43.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +0
  • Jan Beans   – 1/4
  • Dec Wheat   +0
  • Dec Cattle  -.02
  • Dec Hogs    -.15
  • Dec Dlr     +.01
  • Dec S&P     -3.25
  • Dec Crude   +.29
  • Dec Gold    +3.40


Chart of the Day

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