Lots to Watch Today
Jan 04, 2013
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 4, 2013 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed in early trade. We have a lot to digest this morning with export sales at 7:30, EIA data at 10:00 and an update on production numbers from Informa sometime during the session. The weekly export sales estimates are: corn 200 to 300 tmt, wheat 350 to 550 tmt, soybeans 250 to 450 tmt, soymeal 100 to 250 tmt and soyoil 10 to 30 tmt. The cancellation of 315,000 tonnes of soybeans by China yesterday has traders concerned if there is more cancellations to come. Brazil’s harvest is getting started which should be in full swing by late January. The USDA attaché has bumped up his forecast for Brazilian bean crop to 83.0 mmt. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says that Argentina’s soybean plantings are equal to last year at 85% complete. And corn plantings are at 82% complete only 1.5% behind last year. Weather forecast for Argentina is conducive to getting the balance planted. The BA exchange put wheat harvest at 79% which is 15% behind last year. Index Fund rebalancing begins next week and it is expected they have to sell about 20,000 contracts of corn. We have to view the rebalancing as "market noise". The real focus will be the USDA final production numbers for 2012 and their supply and demand estimates. This report will be released next Friday at 11:00 AM. Those of you looking for marketing advice go to
www.allendale-inc.com and click on the "Call to Action" button. We have put out some recommendations to subscribers. Mississippi River levels could fall to restricted levels by next week. However the Army Corp of Engineers expect to have rock pinnacles cleared by them giving an additional 2 feet of draft. March corn futures have technical support at 6.83 ½. A close below that level sets the stage for a move to 6.50. Livestock traders widened the spread between cash and futures on Thursday. Boxed beef values were higher with choice up .97 and select up .66. Cash cattle trade has bids at 125 and asking prices at 130. We are expecting product values to strengthen due to recent slowdown in slaughter level. Cash hogs are firm as packers bid for next week’s needs. Pork cutout values were up 1.71 on Thursday. If you are in the DeKalb, IL area next Wednesday I will be giving a pre-USDA Report outlook at the Northern IL Farm Show at 10:00 am. Look forward to seeing you there.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
- Mar Corn -2
- Jan Beans +3 1/4
- Mar Wheat -1
- Feb Cattle +.07
- Feb Hogs +.025
- Mar Dlr +.43
- Mar S&P +.50
- Jan Crude -1.19
- Feb Gold -44.30
