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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

More Yield Estimates to Digest

Sep 06, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 6, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed with corn and wheat higher, soybeans lower. It appears the recent rains are support for higher bean yield estimates. Yesterday afternoon several FCMs released their numbers for bean yields, RJO put bean yield at 35.6 and FC Stone put out a number of 36.7. The August USDA bean yield was 36.1. Their corn yield estimates were 120.3 (RJO) and 121.4 (FC Stone). We expect to see more estimates as we approach the Supply and Demand report next Wednesday. Weekly export sales will be released Friday morning due to Labor Day. The EIA ethanol data which will be released at 10:00 am today will be watch closely for clues to further demand deterioration. Rain in the US forecast is now seen as bullish with harvest delays and quality problems in drought stricken corn. The talk of dry conditions in South America may be a bit early to cause problems but there is no doubt it is a very sensitive issue. Western Australian wheat growing areas are becoming a concern due to dryness. Ukraine will discuss in October whether to limit exports. Corn and wheat sell-off is testing technical support on the charts. December corn should find support 7.86 1/2, December wheat support crosses at 8.58 ½. The Labor Dept. will give us unemployment figures on Friday morning. Cattle futures are being supported by tight supplies and hopes of higher cash prices this week. Boxed beef was higher on Wednesday. Choice was up .69 and select was up 1.14. Lean hog futures are under pressure from liquidation in the cash markets and a burdensome supply of pork. Cutout values were down 2.57 on Wednesday. Allendale believes we are getting near the end of this liquidation in Lean Hogs. Checkout Rich Nelson’s comments in the Allendale Advisory Report.
Markets as of 5:10AM
Dec Corn    +5
Nov Beans   -2 1/2
Sep Wheat   +12
Oct Cattle -.05
Oct Hogs    -.10
Sep S&P     +8.00
Sep Dlr     -.05
Oct Crude   +1.02
Dec Gold    +16.90
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday in the Oct Lean Hogs we broke out above $74.50 but failed to close above this level and in fact closed lower on the day. A failure on a recovery attempt does reconfirm the bear trend and now the contract lows of $72.07 1/2 should be in the market’s crosshairs...Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Harvest of the US corn crop advanced from 6% to now 10% complete. This was just under the trade expectation of 12%. It is still well above the five year average of 3%. Good to excellent ratings, of diminished importance now, were left unchanged at 22%.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.


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