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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Rains Help Wheat Prospects

Sep 05, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 5, 2012 at 5:20 am. Grain futures are lower this morning. Allendale released the results of the 23rd Yield Survey of farmers which put the national average corn yield at 118.2 and soybeans at 34.9 bushels per acre. There were farmers from 32 states who participated in this year’s survey and Allendale wants to thank all who shared their information. When putting the production data into the USDA balance one has to wonder how they can make it work. We believe the USDA will likely reduce demand by 90% of any supply reduction which will leave the ending stock with only a minor change. Crop conditions had very little change from last week although soybeans improve 1% from very poor to fair. Soybeans posted new contract highs on Tuesday then sold off. Bear spreads were also a feature yesterday. This may be a signal the Bull Run in soybeans maybe coming to an end. Of course it will take more than one day but is a reason to watch for further signs. Talk of dry weather in South America is providing some interest in the contracts after March 2013. Argentina is expected to be releasing more corn export licenses, China’s economic data continues to show slowing and an ECB meeting will be held on Thursday. Mario Draghi will be making an announcement on Thursday which either could have real meaning or more of "kicking-the-can". Unemployment data will be released by the Labor Department on Friday morning. USDA supply and Demand report next Wednesday and FOMC meeting next Wednesday should give reason for grain futures increase volatility. Chart support today in December corn is 7.93 and 7.87. Live cattle futures are poised to continue the trend higher but need some help from the product market. On Tuesday choice beef was up .83 and select was up 1.23. Pork cutout values remain under pressure with a .85 lower price on Tuesday. We are looking for hog supplies to slow down in a few weeks which should support pork product going into October "Pork Month".
 
 
Markets as of 5:20AM
Dec Corn    -6 1/2
Nov Beans   -7 1/2
Sep Wheat   -3
Oct Cattle +.15
Oct Hogs    -.25
Sep S&P     -2.75
Sep Dlr     +.10
Oct Crude   -.16
Dec Gold    -1.60
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s new contract high of $17.89 in Nov. Soybeans comes with a few concerns. 1.) We made new highs on selling. 2.) We left a gap on the chart from Friday’s close to Monday night’s open that was filled during the day session. These negative ideas considered, we still have not seen a close below the 8/28 pivot low of $17.01 that would confirm a short term break in momentum. If we do see a close below $17.01 we would not be surprised by the looming peak and reversal threat that such a close would imply…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Allendale Inc. released the results of its two week nationwide Farmer Yield Survey Tuesday morning. The firm found corn yields to be 118.2 bushels per acre which would put production at 10.326 billion bushels. Soybean yields, at 34.9, would produce at 2.602 billion bushel crop. These numbers are lower than USDA’s 10.779 and 2.692 billion August estimates. Allendale surveyed producers in 32 states.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538  www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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