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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Three Factors Directing Grain Prices

Jun 19, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 19, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grains futures are mostly lower on profit taking after yesterday’s rally. The weather market seems to winding down as current forecasts should be considered as positive to the production and bearish for price. However a forecast for extreme high temps for the Midwest would change trader sentiment in a hurry. The next several trading sessions will be dominated by talk of planted acreage shifts between corn and soybeans, quarterly stocks data estimates and technical support/resistance points. A much more in-depth discussion on these issues can be found in the Allendale Advisory Report. We are continually asked about the July contracts and their impact on new crop values. The trade treats the old crop and new crop contracts as 2 different animals. However farmer selling can impact both contracts when they sweep their bins clean or when they price this year’s harvest. There have been reports of some farmer selling in old crop corn on the recent rally as the positive basis makes cash prices enticing. We were hearing soybean basis up as much as 20 cents and corn up 8 cents in some locations late yesterday. Traders continue to struggle with how the USDA will handle the seemingly aggressive demand for soybeans for domestic use and export deliveries. Listen to the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar on Tuesday evening when Rich Nelson will shed light on the issue. The USDA will release the June Cattle on Feed Report on Friday afternoon at 2 P.M. Allendale’s estimates for this report are: On Feed 97.1, Placed 99 and Marketed 97.5% when compared to a year ago. Cold storage data is likely to show a drawdown of pork and an increase of beef in storage. Boxed beef values were mixed on Tuesday with choice down .95 and select up .36. Pork cutout values were up 2.61. The CME feeder cattle index settled at 136.45.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Jul #Corn    -5
  • Jul #Beans   + 1/2
  • Jul #Wheat   – 1/4
  • Aug #Cattle  +.27
  • Jul #Hogs    +1.02
  • Sep Dlr     +.05
  • Sep S&P     +3.00
  • Jul Crude   +.47
  • Aug Gold    +.60


View Today’s Chart of the Day

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