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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Traders Get Positioned for USDA Report

Jun 27, 2012



Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 27, 2012 at 5:05 am. Corn and soybean futures are mixed this morning as corn sets new highs for the recent move. The supply side of the equation is still the focus. Many traders are concerned about crop stress over the next few days where triple digit temperatures move through a very parched Midwest. The GFS weather model put more rain in the forecast for July 4th through July 11th. However meteorologists are struggling to pinpoint where this moisture is coming from and are in disagreement with the model. We expect some evening of positions ahead of the USDA report on Friday morning. Corn basis for domestic use and export is softening. Export business for US corn has competition from South America. Margin clerks will have their input as the end of month and end of quarter nears. The CME increased margin requirements for most grain futures which takes effect today. The EU leader summit scheduled for later this week is not given much hope for any concrete decisions on their financial crisis. Boxed beef values were higher on Tuesday with choice up 1.31 and select up .19. Pork cutout fell 1.83. Livestock futures are struggling with the weight of the world’s economic situation and battling higher feed costs and poor profit margins. Thanks to all who attended the Ag Leaders webinar last evening. The recorded session will be available online tomorrow morning.
Markets as of 5:05 AM
Jly Corn    +5 1/2
Jly Beans   +13 1/4
Jly Wheat   -3 1/2
Aug Cattle +.12
Jly Hogs    -.45
Sep S&P     +1.25
Sep Dlr     +.01
Auq Crude   -.24
Aug Gold    -4.90
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s price action creates a scenario in which longs could have a false sense of security. A close below the $92.50 level could create a scenario in which we correct lower with support at the $91.00 level.

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Monday afternoon Crop Progress report showed corn ratings for the good and excellent categories fell 7% to now 56%. This was lower than the trade’s expectation for a 2% decline. This is the second lowest rating for this particular week since USDA began this system in 1986.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


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