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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Traders Tense Ahead of Macro Events

Jun 14, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 14, 2012 at 5:30 am. Corn and soybean futures are mixed as soybeans continues to decline. Traders are adjusting positions as the next 2 weeks are filled with key events. This morning we have the Weekly Export Sales, the Greek Parliamentary Election this weekend, G20 Meeting in Mexico on Monday and Tuesday and FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. By the time we trade through these reports will we be in the middle of estimates for the Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acreage report which will be released on June 29th. Weather forecasting models have added more rain for the Midwest starting the middle of next week. Crops will see more stress before any moisture arrives. Basis has strengthened at the gulf and at ethanol plants in the Midwest. This is providing support for July corn futures as cash markets are now 80 over is some areas. The new crop corn is being pressured by fund and technical selling. The 5.00 area is now major support for Dec corn. Export sales estimates for the 7:30 report are: corn 350 to 700 tmt, beans 450 to 750 tmt, wheat 150 to 350 tmt. The Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar scheduled for June 26 will answer specific questions on production and acreage before the USDA report. Cash cattle traded yesterday afternoon at 118 to 119 which is 3 to 4 dollars lower than last week. Boxed beef values were mixed with choice up .28 and select down .19. Pork continues to separate itself from cattle as the cash hog and product markets has started a seasonal rally. Pork Cutout was up .93. Morning Coffee will be updated by 8:00 am
 
 
Markets as of 5:30 AM
Jly Corn    +6 1/4
Jly Beans   -5 1/4
Jly Wheat   +4
Aug Cattle -.15
Jly Hogs    +.50
Sep S&P     +2.00
Sep Dlr     +.10
Jly Crude   +.14
Aug Gold    +1.50
 
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s extremely weak performance in June Live Cattle has now made the $116.15 pivot low a level of critical importance. A close below $116.15 would confirm a double top which would project a move $4.25 lower to $111.90. 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Allendale estimated corn and bean yields at 159.7 and 43.96. USDA kept its 166.0 and 43.9 estimates unchanged from the May release. They typically do not adjust yields to current conditions until the July report.
 
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

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