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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Traders Willing to Take on Risk

Nov 03, 2011

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 3, 2011 at 5:30 am. Commodities are higher this morning. We will start this morning talking about the fundamentals of the grain complex. Weather in South America remains ideal for planting and crops are getting off to a good start. Southern Plains should receive rain in one of 2 systems moving through late this week and early next week. Informa yield estimates were the same as last month's and higher than USDA. Argentina says they are close to finalizing a deal to ship corn to China. In summary, you would have to say fundamentals are a little bearish now. We will get weekly export sales data at 7:30 this morning. We think the macro markets will still to determine the direction for commodities. Traders this morning have a risk-on attitude. Greece remains at center stage with Merkel and Sarkozy issuing a statement that they want a commitment to meet all the measures before any more financial help will be seen. The G-20 leaders’ meeting is now being watched for a solution to the crisis in the Eurozone. Late yesterday, the bankruptcy judge approved transfer of accounts from MF Global. However there still remains a shortfall of customer segregated funds. Beef and pork cutout values were lower. Cash markets are inactive since Tuesday trade. The dollar is down .13, crude is up .20, gold is up 5.40 and stock indexes are higher.
Markets as of 5:30AM
Corn is trading8 to 10 higher   Beans are trading19 to 22 higher  Wheat is trading4 to 6 higher
Live Cattle are trading25 to 50 higher            Lean Hogs are trading0 to 10 higher
Allendale Advanced Charts
Corn remains in a sideways trading range with 40 day moving average providing some resistance at 6.53 1/2. Major resistance crosses at 6.61. Support crosses at 6.33. The longer we stay in this trading range it is likely the velocity of the move in the direction of breakout will be significant.

Nelson Notes from desk of Rich Nelson
Chinese feed mills are showing increased interest in the weekly attempts to sell government wheat stocks. The chart here shows yesterday’s sale was the best yet. The Chinese government expects feed wheat to overshadow corn for another month.


For more grain and livestock market info, call us at 1-800-2MARKET (262-7538).


There is a risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts.


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