What Should I Watch While USDA Is Closed?
Oct 02, 2013
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 2, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are slightly lower in a quiet session.
Traders are dealing with harvest result news while anticipating what the USDA might change on next week’s supply and demand balance sheet. It is expected they will make an adjustment on planted/harvested acres for corn and soybeans. Early estimates from analysts are increasing yields from last month’s numbers. There also is a concern of whether or not the report will be released on Oct 11th at 11:00 or postponed due to the government shutdown.
Harvest results continue to amaze producers in eastern half of the Midwest. Corn yields continue to run 20 to 40 bushels more than expected with many reporting 200+ bushels per acre on average. Soybean yields are average to below average in the same area due to lack of late season rains.
The western cornbelt is getting average to above average yields on corn but are being surprised by soybean results. NW IA producers report 72 to 80 bushels per acre on soybeans. MN producers are getting larger yields than they were expecting in August.
Stats Canada will release their wheat production number on Friday morning.
Weather conditions in Argentina have producers holding on to old crop wheat supplies which has processors scrambling to buy near-term needs. Brazil wheat harvest quality has the importers looking for high food quality supplies around the world and especially from its neighbor to the south. Argentina wheat premiums have skyrocketed in recent weeks.
China remains on Golden Week Holiday until next Monday. The Goldman Roll begins early next week in the November contracts. Washington politics will impact markets as no data will be released and USDA has shutdown its website.
Smithfield said it will determine the price it pays for cash hogs based on USDA market hog prices from Sept 30 for each day until the government reopens through Oct 4. After Oct 4 they will evaluate market conditions and determine a fair value. The CME in a letter to customers said the Government shutdown could have an impact on cash settled contracts such as feeder cattle and lean hog futures.
Traders are turning to technical indicators for direction as fundamental news is limited. December hog chart is showing a potential double top formation which would be confirmed on a close below 85.90. The downside target would project to near the 83.00.
December live cattle have support at 131.00 and remains in an uptrend. Call 800-262-7538 or email your questions to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Markets as of 5:00 AM
- Dec Corn -3 1/4
- Nov Beans -1 3/4
- Dec Wheat -1 3/4
- Oct Cattle -.02
- Oct Hogs +.07
- Dec Dlr -.05
- Dec S&P -13.00
- Nov Crude -.41
- Dec Gold +5.90
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