When Will The Government Start Releasing Data Again?
Oct 17, 2013
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 17, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher as traders wait for USDA to update the export and production data. The equity markets have retracted some of early week gains as they digest the government’s move to do it all again in 3 months. The US Dollar is down sharply this morning.
A producer said yesterday “If we are getting these yields in a bad year what would we get in a normal weather year?” His yields are running well over 200 and more than 40% harvested.
We will not be getting a USDA Weekly export sales report this morning but some exporters are saying that soybean sales could be as much as 3 mmt since last data was reported.
Gulf basis for exportable corn is steady as many think China could have bought another 2 cargos on top of the 300,000 tonnes purchased earlier. Currently US corn is $30 to $35 per tonne cheaper than Chinese corn. Could be a reason for their buying interest?
The USDA says they will decide by the end of the week whether or not to cancel the October Crop Report.
After years of deliberation, a judge in Mexico has placed an indefinite ban on growing genetically-engineered corn. However this does not mean they cannot purchase GMO grain, they just cannot produce it.
The top negotiators for the Farm Bill suggest they could have a full Senate/House meeting before end of October.
Informa is expected to be putting out estimates for 2014 acreage and production on Friday at 10:30.
December Lean Hog futures posted new contract highs of 89.05 before settling moderately under that price on Wednesday. Comparing October futures settlement to Dec price suggests futures are pricing in almost no drop in cash hog prices. Long time hog market watchers know a discount is certainly needed. Supplies normally continue to rise until their weekly peak sometime in mid-November to mid-December. USDA data would help clear up the concern.
Cattle traders had a favorable response to the government getting back to work by retesting highs made just 2 day ago. A cattle on feed report is due to be released on Friday but likely will be re-scheduled by USDA.
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Markets as of 5:00 AM
- Dec Corn +3
- Nov Beans +3 3/4
- Dec Wheat +6
- Dec Cattle -.02
- Dec Hogs -.10
- Dec Dlr -.56
- Dec S&P =3.50
- Nov Crude -.52
- Dec Gold +24.70
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