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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Year End Selling on Holiday Volume

Dec 20, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 20, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are lower on follow through selling. The sharp sell-off is driven by fund liquidation, technical selling and poor demand. Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Chief Strategist says, "We have clear unavoidable problems with old crop corn demand. And no matter what you plug in for new crop it would lead to a huge increase in supply. Although this market has fallen below our 7.15 target for nearby corn, this move is not out of bounds in the big picture." Funds sold an estimated net 13,000 corn contracts, 2,000 wheat contracts and 9,000 soybean contracts on Wednesday. Informa has estimated 2013 corn acres at 99.02 compared to their previous 97.7 million acres. They reduced soybean acres slightly to 78.96 versus 80.1 million acres last month.  Cotton acres were increased by 2 million compared to last estimate. Weekly export estimates for this morning’s 7:30 release are: corn 250 to 550 tmt, soybeans 650 to 850 tmt, soymeal 200 to 300 tmt, soyoil 20 to 40 tmt and wheat 450 to 650 tmt. Shipping rates decline slightly as water levels rise on the Mississippi. Corn and soybean basis was unchanged late yesterday on the biggest decline in futures since mid-November. Farmer selling is nil. Grain and livestock markets will close early on Monday and reopen on Wednesday morning at 9:30 and 9:05, respectively. USDA Dec Cattle on Feed report will be released at 2:00 pm on Friday. Trader average estimates are: On Feed 93.4%, Placements 91.2% and Marketed 100.2%. We will be watching for results of the winter storm moving across the central US. How much impact will it have on movement of livestock and product to and from packing plants?  Boxed beef was mixed with choice down .38 and select up 1.49. Pork cutout values were down .64 on Wednesday. Tomorrow morning will be the last "Wake-up Call" this year. We will resume producing the "Wake-up Call" on January 3, 2013. You will be able to get Allendale market commentary by listening to the "Morning Coffee" or by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report. All of us at Allendale want to wish our readers a Happy Holiday Season and a Prosperous New Year!
Markets as of 5:10 AM
  • Mar Corn    -6 3/4
  • Jan Beans   -11 1/2
  • Mar Wheat   -11 1/4
  • Feb Cattle  -.10
  • Feb Hogs    +.10
  • Mar Dlr     -.10
  • Mar S&P     -.50
  • Jan Crude   +1.58
  • Feb Gold    +1.30
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538

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