Jul 30, 2014
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Market Strategy


By Jerry Gulke

  • A Study in Price Projection
    You’ve probably heard the statement, “No one knows where prices are going, and if someone tells you they do, they are misleading.”
  • Acreage Mix Repercussions
    A lot rests on whether or not we will sufficiently cut corn acres. Research firms go through this exercise every year to try to guess what we farmers will do.
  • Market Strategy: Crop Insurance 101
    Crop insurance has evolved from the basic catastrophic coverage to a complicated revenue insurance vehicle, backed by USDA’s Risk Management Agency, to save the farmer from himself and his banker.
  • Market Strategy: How Much Is Enough?
    With December 2014 corn futures $2.50 per bushel lower and soybeans $6 per bushel lower than most farmers were offered two years ago, the financial incentive to produce corn has disappeared.
  • Market Strategy: Marketing Flexibility
    A cat-and-mouse scenario might be brewing. If end users develop a sense of urgency, prices could form a V-bottom.
  • Gulke: January Stocks a Market Mover
    Be prepared. If tomorrow's USDA report shows demand has not been sufficiently rationed, the market will perceive that prices are not high enough.
  • January Stocks a Market Mover
    If the January report shows demand has not been sufficiently rationed, the market will perceive that prices are not high enough.
  • Qualifying Corn Demand
    With almost 2 billion bushels less corn on hand compared with last year and 3 billion less than estimated in June, sufficiently reducing demand won’t be easy.
  • Market Strategy: Supply and Demand Balancing Act
    There is a fine line between necessary demand reduction and the possibility of demand destruction. Matching demand with supply will be a difficult task.
  • Market Strategy: What Put Options Don't Tell You
    Options, especially puts, establish a floor under prices. This safety net might help some sleep better at night—but at what cost?

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Gulke winterMeet Jerry Gulke

Jerry Gulke farms in Illinois and North Dakota and is president of Gulke Group Inc., a market advisory firm with offices at the Chicago Board of Trade. Gulke Group recently published "Technical Analysis: Fundamentally Easy."

For information, send an e-mail to info@gulkegroup.com or call 815-520-4227.


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