Sep 22, 2014
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Corn prices have dropped since early May, dampening the market mood. But just how bearish should you be? Bob Utterback offers his insight.

It's a good time to be a bear. And nobody knows that feeling better than the notorious market bear, Farm Journal Economist Bob Utterback.

December corn prices have dropped nearly 70 cents since they posted their last high in early May, which has left many traders feeling cautious about the market. But just how bearish should they be?

"There are seasonal times of the year where you can be a very aggressive bear and very comfortable, and other times where you've got to be very conservative," Utterback says.

With the formation of an El Nino in the forecast for this summer, Utterback says one of his big concerns right now is weather.

"But we've got to be careful about being too pessimistic," he says.

That's because a major factor in a weather market is timing, and it can turn around quickly at Mother Nature's discretion.

"If we have a weather event next spring," he explains, "it makes the market a more bullish, because everybody rushes in, than a bearish event."

"You have to write your technique to the fundamentals and the seasonal times in the market."

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