EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 3-14-2012
Mar 14, 2012
After trading sharply higher for much of the day grains finished rather weak. May corn finished 3 ¼ cents lower at $6.58 ¾, May soybeans up 1 ½ at $13.50 ¼ and May wheat down 5 ¼ cents at $6.43 ¾.
March grain contracts went off the board today at noon, but not without some massive spread movements first. March – May corn spreads moved in a range from +2 ½ cents to +17 cents. March – May wheat spreads had a range of -15 cents to +5 cents! We will see if there were any deliveries tomorrow.
February NOPA crush came in a little higher than expected this morning which was slightly favorable for soybeans. Old crop beans held the most support throughout the day even making new highs for the move. At this point the 50 day moving average is almost a whole dollar below current levels for May soybeans! Soybean volatility is still running quite low and long options may be a good way to hedge this market.
For corn the Weekly Ethanol data was out today and showed a slight decline in ethanol stocks as well as production. They have been building ethanol stocks to record levels and this is the first week-to-week decline in stocks since December (though not a significant decline by any means).
Weekly Export Sales will be released tomorrow morning. Expectations are as follows:
Corn: 600,000 – 850,000 MTs
Soybeans: 650,000 – 900,000 MTs
Wheat: 400,000 – 600,000 MTs
We will have the actual export sales in the morning letter.
We expect March to be a volatile month as traders gear up for the Planting Intentions report and Quarterly stocks data. We like staying with the current EHedger recommendations. If you have any questions, please contact your broker. Thanks and have a great rest of the week!!!
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