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EHedger Report

RSS By: Dustin Johnson

Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 5/9/12

May 09, 2012

Grains sold off today ahead of the USDA report tomorrow morning.  July corn lead the way closing 15 ¾ cents lower at $6.07 ¼.  July soybeans closed 8 cents lower at $14.30 ¼, and July wheat 15 cents lower at $6.00.

The day session started with a massive selloff in July soybeans.  The July contract traded down to a low of $14.13 ¼ (down 27 cents) within the first minute of trading!  Outside markets were extremely weak at the time and the technical selloff was enough to get more liquidation.  The bean market quickly bounced back and corn turned out to be the weakest product of the day.  December corn tied the low of the year at $5.15 (for the 3rd time now).  This was the first time in 8 days that we did not have a morning sale announcement by the USDA.

Soybeans are getting what looks to be fund liquidation ahead of a major USDA report as well as on technical sell signals.  I have pointed out in the last couple of reports the key reversal in July soybeans as well as the close below the trendline support in November soybeans.  Any major surprises on the report can obviously change the course of the trend again, but for now it still looks technically negative.  I have included the report estimates in the table below.  This will be the first USDA estimate for "new crop" supply and demand.  This will also be the last major USDA report we will be able to see while the market is still closed as the new 22-hour trading schedule will begin on Monday, May 21st.  The difference in opinions seems rather large on this report so we could see some major swings tomorrow.  For now we like staying with the current EHedger recommendations.  To receive a free trial of the EHedger research including hedge recommendations, please sign up using the link below. Have a great week!

Chart: July Soybeans

July Beans

Chart: November Soybeans

Nov Beans

USDA Estimates:

USDA 2011/12 U.S. Grain and Soybean Ending Stocks
  Average of analysts' estimates Range of analysts' estimates USDA April 2011/12 end-stocks estimates
Wheat 0.778 0.756-0.800 0.793
Corn 0.749 0.660-0.801 0.801
Soybeans 0.214 0.165-0.250 0.250
       
USDA 2011/12 Global Grain and Soybean Ending Stocks
  Average of analysts' estimates Range of analysts' estimates USDA April 2011/12 end-stocks estimates
Wheat 205.402 204.000-206.300 206.270
Corn 122.036 119.800-130.000 122.710
Soybeans 53.304 50.550-55.000 55.520
       
USDA 2012/13 U.S. Grain and Soybean Ending Stocks
  Average of analysts' estimates Range of analysts' estimates  
Wheat 0.782 0.609-0.916  
Corn 1.714 1.209-2.072  
Soybeans 0.164 0.087-0.250  

 

 

 

 

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EHedger 

866-433-4371

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Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

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