Jul 22, 2014
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EHedger Report

RSS By: Dustin Johnson

Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 8-1-2011

Aug 01, 2011

Corn staged a large rally today despite a break in the outside markets.  December corn ended 17 cents higher at $6.85 ¾, November soybeans up 4 ¾ cents at $13.62, and December wheat up 5 cents at $$7.20 ¾.  

Markets are still highly focused on the US debt deal.  Since yesterday it has been expected that congress has reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, and as a result the markets rallied sharply overnight.  Coming into the day however, the markets opened sharply lower after the ISM index came in sharply below expectations.  Despite a sharp break in the equities, a rally in the US dollar, and a sharp break in crude oil, grains still managed to hold support.  Part of this support could be beginning of the month reallocation, or possibly pre- crop ratings purchasing. 

Crop ratings were out at 3 pm and to the market’s surprise corn ratings were unchanged from last week.  Here is the following breakdown:

Corn                Current                        5-Year-Average

Silking:             83%                             84%

Doughing:        18%                             23%    

Dented:           4%                               5%

Crop condition at 62% good-excellent.  This is unchanged from last year, and right at the 10 year average of 62%

Soybeans        Current                        5-Year-Average

Blooming:        77%                             81%

Setting pods:   34%                             45%

Crop condition at 60% good-excellent.  This is down 2% from last week, and right at the 10 year average of 60%.

Winter wheat is 81% harvested compared to 86% on average.

Spring wheat crop condition dropped 4% from last week to 70% good-excellent.

This report was slightly "bearish" for corn and "bullish" for soybeans based on market expectations and we may see this on tonight’s opening trade at 6:00pm.  Since we are still at the 10 year average for corn and bean ratings, and weather looks favorable in the near future, we may see this start to weigh on prices.  We still have the August 11th Supply and Demand (next Thursday).  We feel that it is a good idea to get well protected between now and then.  We have some strategies in place to get extra hedged on the downside, please call your broker if you would like to go over these and how they may help your operational risk.

Best Regards,

EHedger

 

For a free trial of EHedger services including the morning automated phone call, daily afternoon market commentary, and/or a free consultation, please contact EHedger at 866-433-4371. You can also visit us at www.EHedger.com.

 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents.

 

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COMMENTS (1 Comments)

NAGEL
TELL ME IF I AM WRONG HERE. ILLINOIS DOWN 6%,IOWA DOWN 5%, NEBRASKA DOWN 3%, SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN 3%, INDIANA DOWN 5%, MISSOURI DOWN 9%. MINNESOTA UP 2%, OHIO UP 6%, WISCONSIN UP 5% AND KANSAS WAS UNCHANGED. AND WE STAY UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEK! I DON'T WANT TO BE SHORT CORN EVEN IF USDA CAN SHOW UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEK.
5:19 PM Aug 1st
 

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