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EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 4/20/11
Apr 20, 2011
It was a large turnaround for grains today with new crop corn taking a major setback after making new highs. May corn finished 16 ¼ cents lower at $7.32 ¾ and December corn finished 20 ½ cents lower at $6.55 ½. Soybeans held support but traded well of the highs at 15 ¾ cents higher in the May contract. November beans finished 12 cents higher at $13.66. May Chicago wheat finished ¾ of a cent lower at $7.85.
We started out the day strong with most commodities sharply higher and the US dollar lower. The weekly Ethanol Production Report was surprisingly negative down 42 thousand barrels a day vs last week. This put a little pressure on the corn market but the larger break came after the Mid-day weather model took some moisture out of the 11-14 day range. Once the market turned below yesterday's lows stops were triggered and we were sharply lower. Wheat and soybeans followed corn's weakness and came off their highs. Inter-commodity spreading was also part of the reason beans kept strong and corn sold off as many traders were exiting that spread.
This setback in December corn completes a key reversal and may attract more technical sell pressure. If the forecast continues to come in more favorable we could see a much larger setback than the one today.
Weekly export sales expectations for tomorrow morning (in 1000 MTs):
Corn: 800 - 1,100
Wheat: 400 - 800
Beans: 200 - 400
Tomorrow is option expiration day for May grain options. Friday the markets will be closed for the holiday. If you would like to go over your current sales/positions please be sure to check with your broker before things get too busy in the coming weeks.
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