EHedger Grain Commentary 4/2/2012
Apr 02, 2012
Grains had some follow through trading from Friday’s report as we saw heavy "bull-spreading" in corn and "bear-spreading" in soybeans. Wheat was trading sharply lower for most of the day but rallied in the last few minutes to finish only 3 ¾ cents lower. May corn closed 11 cents higher at $6.55 and May soybeans 18 cents higher at $14.21.
Friday’s USDA report showed a decline in old crop corn supply which is helping May corn stay supported at $1.10 above December. They didn’t find a large drawdown in soybean supply although the market was surprised with a much lower soybean acreage number than expected. So far November soybeans have received the largest rally from this report finishing 80.5 cents higher today than where they were on Thursday. We saw soybean open interest jump 31,000+ contracts on Friday alone which means new money is flowing into beans. With the new crop corn-bean ratio now trading at 2.54 to 1, more areas may plant soybeans where possible. We have to remember that the planting intentions were as of March 1st. The fact that we won’t see the next acreage number until June may help keep soybeans supported to other markets like new crop corn until then. The next major resistance level should be at $14 (November) as we touched that level multiple times last September and fell from there. For December corn the 50 and 100 day moving averages are at $5.63 and $5.64 which may be the next areas of resistance.
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