Market Watch

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

June 14, 2013

A Little Bit Red

You can turn red from embarrassment, red from sunburn, or red from a paintball accident. The grain futures turned red this week, with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all posting negative net changes. It can be argued that they got a little sunburn, with the NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts consistently showing above normal temps for the bulk of the nation out through the end of June. That offers needed GDD accumulations for corn, and potentially drier fields to wrap up soybean plantings and allow more widespread wheat harvesting. Cotton might have rallied out of embarrassment, surging 7.7% after USDA confirmed that US ending stocks may only be 2.6 million bales. Hogs looked more like they had been shot out of that paintball gun, with June rallying to $102.30 before expiration on Friday. That was the highest trade in front month hogs since August 2011.

Corn futures lost 11 cents per bushel this week, a 1.7% loss which ended a string of 4 up weeks in a row. Ethanol plant margins are positive, although diminished by a retreat in futures prices. Weekly ethanol stocks dropped to 16 million barrels as consumption exceeded the net of production, imports and exports. Corn used by ethanol was about 95 million bushels for the week, depending on your assumed product yield. Corn export interest was poor. Since USDA lowered expected sales for the year to 700 million bushels, commitments YTD are now 98% of the forecast, and ahead of the 97% average pace for this date. Planting is still not completed. It should be around 98% on Sunday. The largest area of concern is the Dakotas, SE MN, Eastern IA, western IL and WI.

Soybeans lost 12 cents per bushel, after three up weeks. Meal futures were also down $1.80/ton in cautious pursuit of the corn market. Soybean meal export sales activity continues strong, with 144,800 MT booked in the most recent reporting week. Meal commitments are now 98% (typically only 92% by now) of the USDA forecast for the year, with soybean commitments at 101%.  The strong export sales pace for meal is raising concerns about availability of old crop beans for crushing in July and August. USDA did increase projected soybean imports another 5 million bushels in the Wednesday WASDE report. They left both old crop and new crop ending stocks UNCH, preferring to wait for better data from the June 28 reports.

Wheat futures were lower on all three exchanges, with Chicago down 2.21% and MPLS down "only" 1.9%. US weekly export sales for the first week of the new marketing year were 427,200 MT. MPLS was supported by ongoing wet weather. The last 5-10% of the crop may be too late to safely assume a yield if planted. USDA did report that 5% of the winter wheat crop has now been harvested. Our Brugler500 index was UNCH for winter wheat at 271 this week. USDA reported larger than expected winter wheat production at 1.509 billion bushels. Projected world stocks were trimmed 5 MMT to 181.25 MMT due to reduced expectations for Russia, Ukraine and the EU-27.

Cotton surged 656 points for a two week gain of 11.93 cents per pound. The US dollar continued to drop, and that made cotton cheaper in terms of importer currencies. USDA cut projected old crop ending stocks to a very snug 2.6 million bales on Wednesday. Global surplus supplies are still historically large at 92.49 million bales, but much of that inventory (58.93 million bales by August 2014) is in China and not available to global trade.  US weekly export sales were 198,400 running bales of upland and 3,500 RB for pima. Commitments YTD are now 100% of the newly revised USDA forecast for the year. That now lags the 109% average pace over the past 5 years.

Cattle futures lost $1.13 per cwt this week, about the same decline as the $1.18 from the previous week. Choice beef prices are reverting to the mean after their record levels in May. Wholesale beef prices were mixed this week, with Choice down 1.00% and Select up 0.2% on a Friday/Friday basis. There have been scattered cash cattle sales at $121, which would be $2 lower than last week. There is some resistance to the lower bids. US beef production YTD is 1.1% smaller than last year. Weekly slaughter was down 1.7% vs. 2012. Estimated carcass weight is 3# below last year’s actual of 788#.

Hog futures were up $.75 for the week, a continuation of a month long rally. Weekly export sales were much improved at 12,100 MT vs 6,600 MT the previous week. Estimated weekly slaughter was 1.949 million head. That was up 8.1% from the previous holiday week, and 0.6% larger than last year. Weekly pork production was down 3.5% from the prior week, and 10,000 head smaller than year ago. Average carcass weights were estimated to be a pound higher than year ago. Pork production YTD is 0.8% below last year at this time.  The pork carcass cutout value was up 8.09% for the week, with all of the primal cuts up by at least 3% and most up 10% or more.

 Market Watch

The main USDA reports for the week will be on the 21^st, with Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage on tap. There is of course good interest in the Crop Progress report on Monday afternoon, both for planting progress and for crop condition ratings. Export sales data will come on Monday (Inspections) and Thursday (Export Sales). For flavor, the Fed Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. July grain options expire on Friday as well. And, don’t forget, Friday will be the first official day of Summer!

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.  Visit our web site at https://www.bruglermarketing.com or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

Copyright 2013 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

June 7, 2013

 More of the Same

The weather was still too dry in the Plains and WCB, and too wet in states along the Missouri River. Cattle prices were still under pressure, and hog prices were still rising. It was more of the same. The one big change was in the value of the US dollar, which dropped sharply. In theory that raises prices of commodities in dollar terms, and facilitates export sales to countries whose currencies gained at the dollar's expense.

Corn futures rallied 4 cents per bushel this week, a 0.64% gain. That makes 4 up weeks in a row, even if progress is glacial. Ethanol plant margins are positive. Weekly ethanol production rose to a daily average of 885,000 bpd, the largest since June 2012. Corn use was about 95 million bushels for the week, depending on your assumed product yield. Corn export interest was poor, less than half of the trade estimate going into the report. However, we don’t think the trade had made an allowance for the Memorial Day holiday. Planting is still not completed. It should be around 95-96% on Sunday. The largest area of concern is the Dakotas, SE MN, Eastern IA, western IL and WI. There will definitely be a number of producers taking Prevented Planting in northern IA and SE MN, based on client conversations this week.  

Soybeans gained another 18 cents per bushel, and are up 79 cents in 3 week. Weekly soybean export sales were about as expected at 638,300 MT. Old crop bookings were stronger than expected at 48,400 MT. Soybean meal export sales activity continues strong, with 271,300 MT booked in the most recent reporting week. Meal commitments are now 102% (typically only 90% by now) of the USDA forecast for the year, with soybean commitments at 100%.  The strong export sales pace for meal is raising concerns about availability of old crop beans for crushing in July and August. Some South American beans may be available if logistics improve, but protein levels on Argentine beans appear to be below normal and thus unattractive for import if your plant needs to sell 48 pro meal.

Wheat futures were lower on all three exchanges, with Chicago down 1.31% and MPLS down only a fraction of a cent to again lead the market. US weekly export sales were a solid 631,700 MT, with rollovers of 33,200 MT out of old crop. MPLS was supported by ongoing wet weather. The last 5-10% of the crop may be too late to safely assume a yield if planted. Winter wheat heading is also running behind the average pace.

Cotton surged 537 points for the week after losing 217 points the previous week. The US dollar dropped more than 4% from the May 23 high to the low this week. That made cotton cheaper in terms of importer currencies. US export sales last week were excellent at 322,600 RB of upland. Total US export commitments are now 102% of the USDA forecast for the year. The 5 year average for this date is 106% (some sales are always carried over into the next marketing year). The marketing year ends July 31.

Cattle futures lost $1.18 per cwt this week.  Choice beef prices were weaker in the post-Memorial Day period. Wholesale beef prices were weaker, with Choice down 2.38% and Select down 2.27% on a Thursday/Thursday basis. There have been scattered cash cattle sales at $122, which would be $2 lower than last week, but feedlots know that numbers are tightening and packer margins are still good. There is some resistance to the lower bids. US beef production YTD is 1.1% smaller than last year. Weekly slaughter was down 2.47% vs. 2012. Estimated carcass weight is 1# below last year’s actual of 788#.

Hog futures were up $.75 for the week, a continuation of a month long rally. Weekly export sales were poor at 6,600 MT after a jump to 15,100 MT the week before Memorial Day. Estimated weekly slaughter was 2.018 million head. That was up 8.1% from the previous holiday week, and 0.6% larger than last year. Weekly pork production was up 7.9% from the prior week because of the holiday, but 0.6% larger than the same week in 2012. Average carcass weights were estimated to be a pound lighter than year ago. Pork production YTD is 0.9% below last year at this time.  The pork carcass cutout value was down 0.9% for the week despite a 1.2% rise in pork belly prices (Thurs/Thurs basis).

 Market Watch

The main event for the week will be the USDA WASDE supply/demand update on Wednesday. More changes are expected for the global numbers than for the US, but it is fresh insight ahead of the key June 28 Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. USDA will also update Crop Production for winter wheat. Cattle traders will begin the week reacting to any surprise futures positions resulting from the expiration of June cattle options on the 7^th. Index funds will be rolling long positions out of July and into September or December for the first found days of the week. This can occasionally affect the spreads, but is well advertised and to a degree those who would be most impacted have insulated themselves through options and pre-roll futures adjustments.

The market will also be interested in the weekly Crop Progress report on Monday evening, and in the weekly export Inspections report on Monday morning. That will be the final inspections total for old crop wheat, although not the official annual exports. That figure comes from the Commerce Department in July and will be adopted by USDA after release. USDA will also post weekly Export Sales on Thursday, with traders curious whether the 4% plunge in the US dollar index over a two week period has stirred up more buying interest.

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.  Visit our web site at https://www.bruglermarketing.com or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

Copyright 2013 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

May 31, 2013

An Inflation Bull or Just a Soggy Bull?

Most of the ag commodities were in bull mode this week, although cotton and rice were exceptions and so were soy oil and feeder cattle. The US dollar index was down 0.5% for the week to provide a little support on ideas of inflation. That was one possible interpretation of the bond decline as well. Or maybe the Fed skipped buying bonds for a few days because the guy in charge of printing money was on vacation? The more fundamental explanation for the rally in the grains was wet weather. Planting delays continue, and the weather forecast calls for more of the same. Areas with 10" or more take a long time to dry out. A number of states are past their Prevent Plant dates for corn, which means the producer loses 1% of his insurance coverage each day that he has to wait to plant, unless he gives up and takes the insurance payment.

Corn futures rallied 5 cents per bushel this week, a 0.72% gain. Ethanol plant margins are positive. Weekly ethanol production dropped 12,000 bpd to 863,000 bpd.  There were ethanol imports for the first time in 6 weeks. Ethanol stocks were drawn down anyway, to a snug 16 million barrels. Corn export interest was on the upper end of diminished trade expectations, but still tepid. US planting progress expanded to 86% as of May 26, with trade estimates in the 90% range for this week. The largest area of concern is the Dakotas, SE MN, Eastern IA, western IL and WI.  

Soybeans gained 34 cents per bushels for the week after a 28 cent gain the previous week. On a close to close basis, November futures have now rallied $1.10 per bushel from the low day of April 24. Weekly soybean export sales were about as expected at 648,600 MMT. Soybean meal export activity continues strong, with 190,100 MT booked in the most recent reporting week. Meal commitments are now 101% of the USDA forecast for the year, with soybean commitments at 100%. 

Wheat futures were higher on all three exchanges, with Chicago up 1.15% and MPLS up 1.77% to lead the market. US weekly export sales were a solid 764,200 MT, including 35,900 MT of old crop that needed to be shipped by today. MPLS was supported by ongoing wet weather in Montana, western ND and parts of Minnesota. Winter wheat heading is also running behind the average pace. Old crop export commitments are 98% of year ago. They would typically be 104%, so there is some risk of undershooting the USDA forecast for the year.

Cotton lost 217 points for the week or 2.66%. That was a smaller loss than the week before, but still meant the lowest July futures prices since January. US export sales last week were OK at 153,000 RB. Total US export commitments are now 101% of the USDA forecast for the year. The 5 year average for this date is 105% (some sales are always carried over into the next marketing year). The marketing year ends July 31.

Cattle futures gained $0.72 per cwt this week.  Wholesale beef prices were weaker, with Choice down 1.1% and Select down 1.7% after the former set a new all time record high the week before. Cash cattle trade was mostly $124 and $200 this week, above the futures but at a discount to the beef and about steady with the previous week. US beef production YTD is 1.1% smaller than last year. Weekly slaughter was down 1.7% vs. Memorial Day week in 2012. Estimated carcass weight is 9# below last year’s actual of 788#. USDA reported another sold week of solid weekly beef export sales @ 19,000 MT.

Hog futures were up $.75 for the week, a continuation of a month long rally. Weekly export sales were much improved at 15,100 MT, with Mexico the largest buyer. Estimated weekly slaughter was 1.867 million head. That was down 9.1% from the previous week, but 2.4% larger than last year. Weekly pork production was down 9.3% from the prior week because of the holiday, but 2.3% larger than the same week in 2012. Average carcass weights were estimated to be equal to year ago. Pork production YTD is 0.9% below last year at this time.  The pork carcass cutout value was down 0.12% for the week despite a 7% jump in pork belly prices.

 Market Watch

The calendar turns to June, with a pretty standard report line up for this week. USDA will release Export Inspections on Monday morning, with old crop wheat exports a focus. Will we ship enough to make hitting the USDA forecast likely? Soybean loadings will also be of interest, since recent weeks have tapered off to less than 4 million bushels. The usual Monday USDA Crop Progress report will be out in the afternoon, with the focus still on planting progress for spring wheat, corn and soybeans. USDA Weekly Export Sales will be released on Thursday. June cattle options will expire on Friday. Weather forecasts will also get some attention, due to the implications for completing planting.

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.  Visit our web site at https://www.bruglermarketing.com or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

Copyright 2013 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

May 24, 2013

Getting More Average Every Day 

Planting progress is catching up with the average pace (maturity measures will take longer), soil moisture is balancing out (drier west, wetter east, too wet north, too dry south), and temperatures are oscillating from unusually cool to unusually warm. In other words, becoming more average. I have said for years that we need to remember that the average yields we see at the end of the growing season are just a series of reductions from optimal. If everything went right all year, the US could probably average 180 bushels per acre for corn and 50 bushels per acre for beans with current genetics. Things are never that perfect. We subtract for wetness, dryness, hail, wind damage, insects, frost and hurricanes, and come up with something above or below trendline. That process is (surprise!) well underway for 2013.  

Corn futures rallied 4 cents per bushel this week, a 0.7% gain. Ethanol plant margins are positive, and weekly ethanol production responded with a jump in average daily production to 875,000 bpd.  Old crop corn consumption for the week was estimated at 92 million bushels for ethanol alone (excluding DDG net back). Ethanol imports were zero for the 6^th week of the past 7, and ethanol stocks were drawn down to a snug 16.182 million barrels. Corn export interest was on the upper end of diminished trade expectations, but still tepid. US planting progress expanded to 71% as of May 19, with trade estimates in the 85% range for this week. The largest area of concern is the Dakotas (already at the Prevent Plant dates for insurance), SE MN, Eastern IA, western IL and WI. 

Soybeans gained 28 cents per bushels for the week after a 49 cent gain the previous week and 33 cents the week before. Weekly soybean export sales were stronger than expected at 1.022 MMT. Soybean meal export activity continues strong. Crushers backed off on bids as July futures action grew more volatile and farmer selling picked up. Cash soybean prices hit the highest level since November before backing off at the end of the week.

Wheat futures were higher on all three exchanges, with Chicago up 2.09% to lead the market. US weekly export sales were a solid 953,000 MT, including 239,400 MT of old crop, so somebody still needs US origin wheat. China bought 180,000 MT of new crop SRW, a deal announced on Friday that will show up in next week’s Export Sales report. MPLS was the weakest market of the three, as a small planting window opened.

Cotton lost 488 points for the week, with moving average technical support crumbling and China confirming that total imports for the first four months of the year were smaller than in 2012. US export sales last week were stronger than some had expected at 138,100 RB for net sales and 232,900 RB for weekly export shipments. However, the stronger dollar is still raising doubts about next week’s sales. The dollar reached heights not seen since 2010. Total US export commitments are now 100% of the USDA forecast for the year. The marketing year ends July 31.

Cattle futures gained $1.18 per cwt this week, with all of the gain on Friday. It did more than erased the loss from the previous week. Wholesale beef prices were very strong. Choice boxed beef set a new all time high. Cash cattle trade was mostly $124-125.50 this week, well above the futures but at a discount to the beef and a dollar weaker than the previous week. US beef production YTD is 1.1% smaller than last year. Slaughter was up 1% vs. the same week in 2012. Estimated carcass weight was actually 2# below last year’s actual of 781#. USDA reported the best weekly beef export sales in many weeks at 20,400 MT.

Hog futures were up a strong $3.35 (3.66%) for the week. The skyrocketing value of the US dollar index caused concern about pork exports, which in recent years have been more than 20% of total production. Weekly export sales were a fairly routine 7,200 MT.  Rising prices for chicken provided support, along with reduced slaughter rates for hogs. Estimated weekly slaughter was 2.054 million head. That was up 1.2% from the previous week, but 0.8% smaller than last year. Weekly pork production was down 1.1% from the prior week, and 0.7% smaller than the same week in 2012. Average carcass weights were estimated to be equal to year ago. Pork production YTD is still 1% below last year at this time.

 Market Watch

This will be a short trading week, with markets closed for Memorial Day in the U.S. on May 27. The usual Monday USDA reports will be delayed until Tuesday, including Export Inspections and Crop Progress. USDA Weekly Export Sales will be delayed until Friday morning. The markets can be expected to have the usual end of month fund money shifts away from the winners and toward the losers. June grain options expired on Friday the 24^th, so there are also likely a few folks adjusting to new futures positions following exercise. One major index fund also will begin selling out of July long positions at the end of the week.

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.  Visit our web site at https://www.bruglermarketing.com or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

Copyright 2013 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

May 17, 2013

Roll On, Big P

That’s P as in Planter. We finally got a break in the weather for a few days, with a huge jump in average daily temperatures. That was accompanied by wind in some areas, amplifying the soil drying effect. Producers put their new GPS equipped planters to work 18 hours a day or more in some cases, and got a lot of seed in the ground. USDA will tell us on Monday what the overall progress was, but it was clearly substantial. The advance would have been larger if not for widespread shower activity breaking out all over the eastern 2/3 of the country from Wednesday evening on. 

Corn futures rallied 17 cents per bushel this week, a 2.5% gain after losing 1.7% the previous week. Ethanol plant margins are positive, and weekly ethanol production responded with a jump in average daily production.  Old crop corn consumption is up accordingly. Imports were zero for the 5^th week of the past 6, and ethanol stocks were drawn down to a snug 16.4 million barrels. Export interest, on the other hand, is very weak. Foreign buyers have been soaking up the limited export corn available out of South Africa, and also buying much cheaper Brazilian corn which they hope gets shipped before they need it. US planting progress expanded greatly this week, with trade estimates of total plantings in the 60-75% range for the Monday USDA report. Upper Midwest planting activity was halted by rain on Friday, as were a number of producers in IL and IN. A Memphis based consulting firm reduced its projection of US corn plantings to 96.827 million, about 455,000 fewer than the USDA Planting Intentions report showed in March.

Soybeans gained 49 cents per bushels for the week after a 33 cent gain the previous week. Weekly export sales were in line with trade estimates, but soybean meal export activity continues strong and that means higher meal prices if crushers can’t find enough beans. The NOPA crush for April was smaller than had been expected, a little over 120 million bushels. If you don’t crush the beans, you don’t sell the meal.  Meal futures were up 4.3% for the week. Soybean planting activity is just getting rolling, since it usually follows corn planting. Argentine sources indicated that neither exporters nor domestic processors have been able to buy as many beans from the farmer as they did a year ago. This raised crop size questions, but may also be a function of high inflation rates in Argentina and the necessity to keep some physical commodity as an inflation hedge. It does imply reduced export availability for the time being.

Wheat futures were lower on all three exchanges. The focus was on large global production for 2013, and not on the smaller US HRW crop. It was sort of a "you have a problem but we don’t need you anyway" attitude. That said, US weekly export sales were a solid 540,000 MT for the week, so somebody needs US origin wheat. MPLS was the firmest market, as a small planting window opened and then closed as rain chased producers back out of the field. A Memphis based analysis firm projected on Friday that US spring wheat acreage would total 12.401 million acres, apparently little affected by the flooding and planting delays.

Cotton lost a minuscule 11 points for the week, with nearby futures continuing to hover around the 86 cents per pound mark. US export sales last week were stronger than some had expected at 142,800 RB. However, the stronger dollar is raising doubts about next week’s sales. The dollar reached heights not seen since 2010. Total US export commitments are now about 99% of the USDA forecast for the year. The marketing year ends July 31.

Cattle futures lost $1.05 per cwt this week. That caused a lot of head scratching, as wholesale beef prices set new record highs and futures were still more than $12 below their 2013 high of $132.95. June futures only need to respect cash market values when they are in deliveries, which don’t begin until mid-June. In the mean time, speculative sellers or others are free to assume that cash cattle prices and those wholesale prices will decline from current levels by June. Cash cattle trade was mostly $125-126.50 this week, well above the futures but at a discount to the beef. As mentioned, wholesale beef prices were record high, with choice gaining 2.2% for the week. Select was up 0.8%.  Beef production YTD is 1.2% smaller than last year. The USDA Cattle on Feed report on Friday afternoon showed stronger than expected demand for feeders (placements 115.1% of year ago) but as a result there were more cattle in the lot on May 1 than expected (96.6% of year ago).

Hog futures were up $1.03 for the week, hurt a little by a dive on Friday. The skyrocketing value of the US dollar index caused concern about pork exports, which in recent years have been more than 20% of total production. The pork carcass cutout gained $3.61/cwt or 4.02% for the week.  Rising prices for chicken provided support, along with reduced slaughter rates for hogs. Estimated weekly slaughter was 2.035 million head. Weekly pork production was down 2.2% from the prior week, and 4.2% smaller than the same week in 2012. Some producers appeared to be focused on planting rather than marketing hogs. Average carcass weights were estimated to be equal to year ago, so slaughter was also down 2.1% from the prior week. Pork production YTD is still 1% below last year at this time.

 Market Watch

Livestock traders will begin the week assessing how much further prices need to drop to reflect the USDA Cattle on Feed report from Friday afternoon.  The USDA monthly Cold Storage report will be released on Wednesday afternoon. Grain market participants will focus on the Crop Progress report on Monday at 3 pm CDT, with a glance at weekly Export Inspections on Monday and Export Sales on Thursday morning. Friday will mark the expiration of June serial options in the grains, and the start of a long 3-day weekend because of Memorial Day in the U.S. on May 27.

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.  Visit our web site at https://www.bruglermarketing.com or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

Copyright 2013 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC