Jul 10, 2014
Sign UpLogin


The Ted Spread

RSS By: Ted Seifried, AgWeb.com

Ted is the Chief Market Strategist and Vice President in charge of the Zaner Ag Hedge Group and specializes in agricultural hedging employing various strategies using futures, futures spreads, outright options and option combinations. He believes it is paramount to be able to use different strategies to adapt to market conditions. Ted works with large to mid size grain and livestock producers and end users in North, Central and South America.

Grains End a Long-Short Week on a Sour Note

Jul 03, 2014

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.       

This holiday shortened week has not been kind to corn and soybean prices.  The week started with a shocking USDA Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks report and has not been able to recover.  Weather has also been mostly ideal, adding to the pressure.  For the week December corn was down 33 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 94 1/2 cents.  As we step away from market to celebrate America it may be a good time to think about the months to come.  

On Monday the USDA shocked the market with a much larger then expected soybean acreage number.  The bearishness did not end there as grain stocks number were also higher then expected for both corn and soybeans.  To make a long story short, this suggests that not only could we grow more soybeans then expected but demand for both corn and soybeans may not be as strong as we thought.  This could all add up to some massive corn and soybean stocks and maybe lower prices for next year.  

When we return from the holiday weekend however weather will become the main focus again.  So far weather has been mostly good with some flooding, hail and small pockets of dryness being the exceptions.  All together we are looking at very good crops on a national scale with corn at 75% good to excellent and soybeans at 72% good to excellent.  These are both historically high ratings.  

Sign up for our Morning Ag Hedge newsletter!  Sign up here: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=17  

But, there is still a lot of weather to get through before corn and soybean crops are "made".  Again, weather so far has been good for most with the biggest complaint being too much rain.  Weather forecasts are now starting to dry out a bit, which is welcomed by most areas and seen as beneficial for crops for now.  However, after a few days of drying down we may start to wonder when the rain will return and if this could be a change in the weather pattern to more of a hot and dry pattern.  This most likely will not become a real threat to crops but as we approach the key moisture sensitive stages the market could begin to get nervous that we may not reach the record yields the USDA is looking for.  

We have awesome CRB wall charts to give out!  They are weekly bar charts that go back 10 years to Oct, 2003 and are about the size of a poster.  If you'd like one sign up here - Corn: http://www.zaner.com/offers/index.asp?page=20  

Producers may want to carefully consider selling corn and soybeans on any bounce at this point.  If weather stays favorable on a national scale and crop conditions remain very good we could be looking at some massive crops and massive stocks come harvest.  This USDA report was a game changer in a few ways but all of them are negative for prices going forward unless there is a real weather event that reduces yield potentials.   

Happy Birthday America!!!  And thanks to all the folks that are the heartbeat of this wonderful country!!  

Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.     

December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  This commentary should be conveyed as a solicitation for entry into derivitives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.  The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.

Where do Grains go from Here?

Jul 01, 2014

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.       

As the dust settles after a shocking USDA report the grains were able to find some footing and bounce off the lows.  The Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports may have now changed the tone in grains for good.  However, after the sharp declines we have seen since the report where do grains go from here?  

Soybeans were sharply lower following the USDA Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks report.  In the biggest surprise of the report the USDA increased soybean acreage well more then even the highest trade guess.  This now puts soybean acreage at a new record by a long shot.  Old crop soybeans were not spared from the bearish report either as stocks came in well above the trade guess as well.  This all amounted to a sharp drop in soybeans with the hardest hit new crop November soybeans down $1.00 in less then 24 hours.  The report was not as bearish for corn as acreage came in near estimates but stocks were 128 million bushels above the trade guess.  Lower corn acreage still means we will need a very good corn crop this year but larger then expected stocks could mean bigger beginning stocks going into next year and demand may not be as strong as expected.  This takes some of the pressure off and prices reflected that.  Wheat also was not spared from the bearishness as stocks came in as expected but acreage was larger then the trade guess.  

Sign up for our Morning Ag Hedge newsletter!  Sign up here: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=17  

So, it was a bearish report (especially for soybeans) and the market reacted to it.  Now that prices have come down where do we go from here?  Corn and wheat already had made big moves lower so the bearish USDA report may have just been the icing on the cake.  At this point US wheat is getting closer to being competitively priced and harvest pressure from the winter wheat crop could be subsiding.  Corn has had good reason to see lower prices and the larger stocks number was a reflection of many analysts suggesting that feed demand was too high.  So much of this could have already been factored into the corn and wheat markets.  The big surprise was soybeans.  Larger then expected old crop stocks take much of the tight balance sheet talk off the table and huge planted acreage figures suggest that we could be swimming in soybeans next year.  However, in the case of corn, soybeans and spring wheat we still have to grow this crop.  

Now that the dust has begun to settle from this report the fact remains that the harvest lows this year could now be lower then what we were thinking just days ago.  Corn, wheat and especially soybeans could be looking at bigger ending stocks now.  However, the key to both statements is "could".  Crops are not made in June and we still need to finish out this growing season and weather will still be key in determining production and prices.  So now that this report is out of the way weather may be the biggest determining factor going forward.  

Crops look very good at this point, but we still have to get through the key moisture sensitive reproductive stages in corn and soybeans.  While this report may have added downside potential to grains markets a weather event could change that.  If there are any weather concerns that pop up in future forecasts the market may be quick to build in weather premium.  With the huge soybean acreage soybeans may not be quite as sensitive, but corn needs to see record yield this year and could react sharply to any hint of  a weather issue. 

We have awesome CRB wall charts to give out!  They are weekly bar charts that go back 10 years to Oct, 2003 and are about the size of a poster.  If you'd like one sign up here - Corn: http://www.zaner.com/offers/index.asp?page=20     

Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.     

December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  This commentary should be conveyed as a solicitation for entry into derivitives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.  The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.

Old Crop Soybean Sales and the QGS Report

Jun 26, 2014

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.       

For the week ended June 19th the USDA reported  317,000 metric tons, or 11.7 million bushels of old crop soybeans sold for export.  This number surprised the market as expectations were around 50,000 metric tons.  The unexpectedly high weekly export sales number was bullish as the USDA is already estimating a tight balance sheet and is still estimating soybean exports well behind total commitments.  This re-ignites the question - is the US going to run out of soybeans this year?  

The USDA is currently estimating soybeans exports for the 2013/2014 marketing year at 1.6 billion bushels.  After the 11.7 million bushels sold last week total commitments are now 1.671 billion bushels, 71 million bushels above the current USDA estimate.  If all of the total commitments were shipped this marketing year it could cut the already tight USDA ending stocks estimate in less then half.  The current USDA ending stocks estimate is 125 million bushels and if export shipments are in fact 1.671 billion bushels as opposed to the current USDA estimate of 1.6 billion this would leave us with ending stocks of only 54 million bushels.  This would be the tightest soybean ending stocks on record.  If this were the case it could suggest that soybean prices should go sharply higher to cut out any further demand.  

However, there are some disconnects between the USDA's estimates and what is happening in the cash market.  Cash soybeans just are not as strong as they were this time last year and last year ending stocks were estimated at 141 million bushels compared to the current USDA estimate for this year of 125 million bushels and the potential 54 million bushels carry over we could see if all of the export sales commitments on the board ship out.  The other question is - why would we still be selling soybeans if there was really nothing left to sell?  It seems like there could either be more soybeans out there then the USDA knows about or end users are waiting till the last minute to book their needs.  If the later is the case there could still be a sharp rally in soybeans before the new crop is harvested.  

Sign up for our Morning Ag Hedge newsletter!  Sign up here: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=17  

The USDA will shed some light on this burning question with the Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday, June 30th.  If the soybean situation is as tight as the USDA's numbers are suggesting then the Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers should be well below this time last year.  If, however stocks are near or higher then this time last year it suggests that there were more soybeans out there then the USDA saw.  If this were true it could be the product of the USDA not getting last years production right.  In a way the USDA has a "get out of jail free" card on this because they were closed by the government shut down last year when they needed to be out in the fields collecting yield data.  By the time they were able to get out into fields and collect data it was the tail end of the harvest and they may have only seen the lower producing acres as we generally harvest the best fields first.  

Either way this Quarterly Grain Stocks report is shaping up to be one of the biggest reports of the year, especially for old crop soybeans.  If stocks are tight it could mean that soybean prices still need to go sharply higher to shut down demand.  How high is a great question.  Earlier this year soybeans rallied above $15.30 to try to slow down the record pace of export sales with little effect until South American soybeans became available.  So prices could go even higher yet if the very tight soybean situation verifies.  However, if there are more soybeans out there as the cash market and continued export sales suggest then soybean prices could fall under pressure.  With record planted acreage this year and good weather to start the growing season it may not be so important to have much of a carry in for next year.  This means that as long as the old crop situation isn't dire enough to cause soybeans to sharply rally in order to completely cut out any further demand prices could come down even with the balance sheet being fairly tight.  

We have awesome CRB wall charts to give out!  They are weekly bar charts that go back 10 years to Oct, 2003 and are about the size of a poster.  If you'd like one sign up here - Soybeans: http://www.zaner.com/offers/index.asp?page=21

Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.     

July Corn Daily chart:

July Soybeans Daily chart:

July Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  This commentary should be conveyed as a solicitation for entry into derivitives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.  The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.

How Good is this Soybean Crop So Far?

Jun 24, 2014

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.       

According to the USDA soybean crop conditions are very good with 72% of the crop in good to excellent condition.  With the USDA looking for a record yield soybean conditions will need to stay good throughout the growing season.  It's still early in the growing season but how does this soybean crop stack up so far?  

With 72% of the soybean crop in good to excellent condition we are certainly off to a great start.  In fact, this is the best conditions rating for soybeans at this time of year since the NASS started publishing crop conditions in 1986.  The only other years that were 70% G-E or better at this time were 1994 and 2003.  In 1994 we ended up setting a record national average yield of 41.4.  At the time this was a record by a huge margin (the previous record set in 1992 was 37.6).  This was almost a 4 bushel per acre improvement on the previous national average yield.  Currently the USDA is looking for a record yield for their balance sheet.  They are expecting a 45.2 which would be 1.2 bushels and acre above the previous record of 44 bushels an acre set in 2009.  

We have awesome CRB wall charts to give out!  They are weekly bar charts that go back 10 years to Oct, 2003 and are about the size of a poster.  If you'd like one sign up here - Soybeans: http://www.zaner.com/offers/index.asp?page=21

The other year soybeans conditions were 70% G-E or better was 2003.  The national average yield in 2003 ended up at 33.9 bushels per acre.  This was 7.5 bushels below the previous record national average yield (again 1994)!  If that were to happen this year the USDA's balance sheet would be dramatically tighter even with the record planted acreage.  

So, the soybean crop so far looks great.  Soybeans are 72% good to excellent compared to a 5-year average of 63% and an all time average of 61% for this time of year.  This is the best rated crop for this time of year that we have seen.  However, as we saw in 2003 a lot can change between now and harvest. This may help explain why November soybeans have held their range so well despite the fantastic crop conditions.  

The bottom line is that soybeans are on a good track to set record yields this year and maybe by a long shot.  However at this point in the growing season we can not take anything for granted.  Soybeans will need good rains in August to produce huge yields.  So, while soybeans might not need to rally with good conditions it may take at least a few more weeks like this before the trade believes the crop will be a record breaker.  

Sign up for our Morning Ag Hedge newsletter!  Sign up here: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=17  

Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.     

July Corn Daily chart:

July Soybeans Daily chart:

July Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  This commentary should be conveyed as a solicitation for entry into derivitives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.  The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.

Is Corn Threatening to Rally?

Jun 19, 2014

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.       

Just as many analysts jump on the $3.50 bandwagon corn has its biggest 2-day rally since the first week of May.  In the last few trading seasons corn has managed to hold key support and now close over resistance.  Is this the beginning of a bigger bounce in corn?  

In many years corn has put in a high in June or July.  This June, so far, has been dominated by pressure in the corn market with corn contracts making new recent lows earlier this week.  Weather has been near ideal for the start of the growing season and crop conditions are near record highs.  This has fueled thoughts that corn yields this year may not only be a record but maybe a record by a long shot.  However, it is very early in the growing season to be making such assumptions.  The problem is weather and crop conditions are about as good as it gets, so either weather and conditions remain the same or they get worse.   

As I wrote in an article last Thursday, there have been 5 years in the last 20 years where crop conditions have been at least 72% good to excellent at this time of year.  Only one of those years ended up setting a new record yield.  My point then, as it is now, is that although we are on track to hit record yields a very good looking crop at this point doesn't always translate into a record breaker.  It is very possible, and maybe likely that something in a weather forecast going forward calls the idea of record yields into question.  

We have awesome CRB wall charts to give out!  They are weekly bar charts that go back 10 years to Oct, 2003 and are about the size of a poster.  If you'd like one sign up here - Corn: http://www.zaner.com/offers/index.asp?page=20   (US only please)

This year it is record yield or bust (for the USDA balance sheet at least).  The USDA is looking for a record yield and anything short of a record changes the balance sheet dramatically.  With fewer planted acres in corn this year (down almost 6 Million acres from the 2012 high, and maybe more) it becomes vital for the acres that are planted to do well and for the national average yield to be high.  If yields were to slip even just a few acres a bushel the USDA balance sheet starts to get tight under their current demand/usage estimates.  If we ended up with the same yield as last year ending stocks would slip to about 1.1 billion bushels.  Shave another bushel or two off and were are well below a billion bushels.  This sort of scenario could cause a need for price rationing (higher prices) to curb demand.  

So, corn conditions and weather so far have been very good, but the crop is not made yet.  The corn market has good reason to be very sensitive to any hint of adverse weather this year.  With weather being nearly ideal so far it wouldn't take much to spook the market.   At this point we may have taken too much weather premium out of the corn market and corn could be poised for a bounce, even without a major weather issue.  If there were a major weather issue however, for example it got hot and dry in July, corn could really find some strength.  

Sign up for our Morning Ag Hedge newsletter!  Sign up here: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=17  

Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.     

July Corn Daily chart:

July Soybeans Daily chart:

July Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  This commentary should be conveyed as a solicitation for entry into derivitives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.  The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

MARKETS

CROPSLIVESTOCKFINANCEENERGYMETALS
Market Data provided by Barchart.com
Enter Zip Code below to view live local results:
bayer
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions