AgDay TV

Grains See Profit Taking on Doubts on China Deal, Crude Oil Collapse

Wed, 20 May 2026 22:44:59 GMT

Grain and livestock futures were lower on Wednesday except for feeder cattle.

Grains and Cotton Futures Fall as China Denies Purchase Amounts
Grain and cotton markets saw profit taking and speculative selling on Wednesday after China’s Commerce Ministry denied the the $17 billion of agricultural purchase amounts released in a White House fact sheet on Sunday.

Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says the market was skeptical about the lack of specifics in the framework before China denied the purchase amounts.

He says that likely triggered some speculative long liquidation. “I think the other part of it is it’s now day number three since we’ve had the announcement that they were going to do some more business with the U.S. And we have yet to see any type of purchases being made of any sort being announced. Maybe the trade looked around and said, we’ve got three days. We got a lot of length in this market. No confirmation.”

Why Would China Confirm the Deal?
Why would China top their hand and confirm what they were going to buy? That would just make prices go up and make U.S. ag products more expensive for them to buy.

Schultz says, “I would hold that card closer to my chest all the way along as well. I would not relinquish what we agreed to. If the U.S. wants to tell what we did, fine. But I don’t need to make that as a forecast of what we did as well.

So will the purchases start showing up as flash sales or quietly under the radar in the weekly export sales?

“Well, you could see that happen, but I would say right now the trades probably wants to see something being announced. And if you go back, I mean, we haven’t, other than 150,000 metric tons of meal to Italy in the last two weeks, we haven’t seen anything in the daily reporting service of any kind from any country. So all of a sudden our export business has just shut down quietly,” he says.

He attributes that to the high energy prices making shipping more expensive.

Crude Oil Collapse Also Pressures Market
The crude oil market also collapsed later in the day with President Trump sounding once again like a peace deal with Iran may be close at hand.

He says, “Today, with the energy dropping 20, 22 cents on gas and diesel and crude down $6 a barrel, I mean, it just also cast a little bit more of a negative tone across the board.”

Will Funds Liquidate More?
So if there is a peace deal in Iran and energy prices fall and China sales don’t start to materialize soon will the funds liquidate? They currently old a near record long position in the grain complex combined.

“Well, they could,” Schultz speculates, “I thought last week’s technical action for the corn and the beans did cast a negative tone. Now, we’re still some eight to nine cents higher than we were last Friday on the corn, December corn from the close.”

He says soybeans have had a longer rally. “The soybean market has made a pretty good push. I think it’s 17 or 18 weeks. We put the bottom in on this January 12th report. We’ve been going up every since. I think we only closed lower three or four times during that. 17 to 18 weeks and barely had a correction of 20 cents was the biggest correction we saw. So I just think that market’s been, if you look at it on a weekly basis, it looks like it’s just been another market straight up on here. So I just think when you get up to this level and the funds have this much length into the market, you have to keep having friendly to bullish news almost on a daily basis to sustain the rally.”

Weather and Fast Planting
Also adding some pressure is the fast U.S. planting pace at 76% on corn and 63% on soybeans, which is ahead of average.

While there are some problem areas, the weather forecast is non-threatening.

“Yeah, it’s getting favorable because most of this crop is now going to be in the ground. It looks like the heavy rains are going to track further South into the Delta and the Ohio River Valley. Now, that’s an area that probably would entertain having more moisture because they’re still pretty dry underneath. And there, too, the crop is much further along than it is up in the upper Midwest. So they can handle the water. They need more of the water,” he explains.

The upper Midwest would like to see more warmer, drier conditions, at least for the short term and Schultz says that is what they’re going to get.

“It was affecting maybe up to 40% to 50% of the safinha corn. That has been narrowed down to maybe 20%. But the rest of it has got picked up enough moisture that I think it offsets whatever that 20% is going to lose on yield,” he adds.

Problem Areas
There are a few problem areas that have had too much rain in the Eastern Corn Belt and there is even some frost damage in the North that will force replant.

However, he thinks that is a small percentage of the crop.

Wheat Crop Still Shrinking?
The one exception may be the hard red winter wheat crop which saw the worst crop ratings this week since 1989.

Still, much of that may be factored into prices he says because there isn’t much of a problem elsewhere in the world.

“Now, how that changes is if by chance, all of a sudden, the Chinese or somebody else comes in and starts buying U.S. wheat. We’re the most expensive wheat in the world, so that’s going to be a little bit tough to do. But if there is some type of a purchase, then I can see where that becomes a bigger issue,” he says.

He is also watching for disease and quality problems in the soft red winter wheat crop where they have had excessive rains. “Better chance of quality issues going into feed quality wheat,” he says.

Plus he’s watching the spring wheat in Canada and the Dakotas for dryness that could start to curb yield

Live Cattle See Pressure
Feeder cattle futures rebounded to close higher with the lower corn market. However, the live cattle futures closed lower.

The headline of the lockout at the Fort Morgan, CO beef plant may have triggered some early fund selling. However, the plant has been dark for nearly a month without a market reaction.

He says, “Well, it didn’t care, and it certainly hasn’t cared about a shortage or a plant being shut down because the rest of the packers were still out and bidding up last week for cattle.”

Cash Trade Improves Wednesday
Last week cattle traded at record levels but some early week sales were steady to lower. “I heard a few cattle going yesterday in Nebraska, $264, maybe a buck lower, steady to a buck lower. The bid’s out yesterday at $260, not much for takers.”

So by Wednesday cash improved to $264 to $265 live in the North and $415, which pulled cattle off their lows.

Futures are trading at a huge discount to the cash, which is not uncommon, but that will narrow closer to June 5 or June 6.

Cattle on Feed Coming with Bearish Expectations
The market was also positioning ahead of the USDA Cattle on Feed Report on Friday with expectations for larger on feed numbers and placements compared to a year ago when the border was closed to Mexican cattle.

“That is correct. So it is finally crisscrossed over and we should start seeing where the placements start to get a little bit larger, on feed starts to
get a little bit more,” he says.

Improved Beef Demand
The key for him is when demand will start to get better, especially with China relisting 425 U.S. beef plants.

“They basically shut the exports down and we’re only doing about 1.5 million pounds of muscle meat per month going out to China where
they were up as much as 18 and 20 million pounds. So that’s dropped off,” he says.

Increased Beef Imports?
On the flip side of that the market is seeing increased imports from Argentina, Brazil, and even Mexico has now stepped up on the imports
of beef.

Mexican officials say they are going to double beef exports to the U.S. in 2027 because they are feeding more cattle in their country and shipping the meat to the U.S.

“If we shut down the border and we don’t bring the cattle in, it’s not like the cattle died. They are still going to be fed. They’re just going to be fed down in Mexico. And yeah, if the Mexicans aren’t going to eat that much beef, eventually they’re just going to bring the finished product back to the United States,” he says.

Lean Hogs Hit New Lows....Again
Lean hog futures were lower again and seeing some new lows for the move in the June contract.

Is a bottom in sight?

Schultz says, “We haven’t brought the cash market or the pork cutout, for that matter. In seven months, we have been sitting here and doing nothing. It just chops in a sideways pattern. The hog slaughter has finally slipped for at least two of the last three weeks. You better start seeing less numbers.”

He says when the numbers start to drop the pork cutout should respond. “But that is not happening yet as globally, the world is still awash in pork. And obviously, we need something on demand. And thus far, it appears, though, we don’t have that demand showing up.”

Plus, he says consumers only buy pork if it’s cheap because they still have an appetite for beef.

Northeast Iowa Farmer Says Fertilizer Sticker Shock Limited Corn Acre Shifts This Spring

Wed, 20 May 2026 19:08:58 GMT

In northeast Iowa, the first green spikes of corn are finally pushing through the soil this week. And for farmer Darrick Burnikel, the emergence is a welcome sight after a spring defined less by moisture concerns and more by a stubborn lack of warmth.

“I don’t think you could ask for anything better than this,” Burnikel says as he inspects his corn stands just north of Cresco, Iowa.

This spring, moisture in the seedbed wasn’t the limiting factor. Instead, it was the cool conditions that slowed everything down just enough to make farmers watch and wait.

“We had adequate moisture down there in the seedbed,” Burnikel says. “This was fall stripped and then just planted on. So we had moisture to germinate. We were just lacking the heat.”

Dry Conditions Helped Fields Stay Fit

Across northeast Iowa, conditions have been unusual. While dryness helped keep fields workable, temperatures repeatedly lagged behind seasonal norms.

“It is definitely not average,” Burnikel says. “We were dry and cool.”

Even as planting season approached, the region continued to deal with persistent cold snaps, including patchy frost and soil temperatures that refused to climb.

“It was pretty steady,” Burnikel says. “We were still having forecasts of low thirties. You would wake up in the morning and there would be some patchy frost. Soil temperatures were just cold. We were dry though, which made guys feel a little better as far as seed chilling.”

That stretch of cool weather even reached fields just one mile from the Minnesota border, where temperature swings remained more dramatic than normal. Still, there were brief windows of relief.

“And over the weekend we scored some really good heat units, pushing 80 to 85,” Burnikel says.

But those warmer periods were short-lived, sandwiched between cooler days that defined most of early spring.

“We welcomed the dryness, everybody was getting excited,” Burnikel says. “But our temperatures were so cold. We were still seeing frost, low 30s at night, highs in the 50s, and a couple teaser 70 to 80 degree days. Soil conditions were great.”

Planting Progress Moved Quickly

Once May arrived, however, planting momentum took over. Even with lingering cool conditions, equipment rolled and stayed rolling across much of the region.

“It was just a steady race,” Burnikel says. “From May 1st to May 10th, it was about wrapped up, corn and beans. A lot of guys commented that it was one of the smoothest springs they had.”

With most acres planted early, emergence timing became the next concern. But in many cases, that delay actually worked in farmers’ favor, allowing crops to avoid the worst of spring’s scattered frost events.

“This was planted, I believe, May 9th. Today is the 18th, so nine days,” Burnikel says. “That is pretty nice up here to get it out of the ground. That means it did not have any struggles.”

Fields planted just days apart are now showing clear differences in growth stages, all influenced by when warmth finally arrived.

“There is corn planted a week earlier that is about right here at this stage,” Burnikel says. “Nothing was really coming up much prior to the Friday night rain. We had a really warm weekend. It just gave it enough heat and loosened up the soil on top to push it through.”

“But honestly, this next few days, you see a lot of emerged corn. Four or five days ago, you could hardly find any,” he adds.

Fertilizer Costs Limited Acre Shifts

Typically, such a smooth and rapid planting window would prompt farmers to plant more corn instead of switching to soybeans. But he says that wasn’t the case this year. Input costs, and the price of fertilizer, kept farmers from making that switch.

“Personally, I had my fertilizer booked for all corn acres,” Burnikel says. “Early spring guys would contact me about switching acres to corn, but then they would talk to their fertilizer retailer or catch wind of what that is going to cost and it kind of steered them away. I really do not feel I lost any acres to beans.”

Rain and Warmth Push Crop Ahead

Now, as emergence lines up across the region, Burnikel says the crop looks strong — and timely moisture helped seal the deal.

“This emergence, I could not ask for anything better than this,” Burnikel says.

Recent rainfall arrived just as some fields were beginning to dry out, helping ensure seedlings had what they needed to push through.

“We were fortunate enough to get a little half inch on Friday night and another half inch,” Burnikel says. “Just right to get it out of the ground.”

Optimism Remains Despite Market Swings

After one of the more efficient planting windows in recent memory, optimism is cautiously building that both the crop and market conditions can continue in a positive direction.

“Oh, we are always optimistic,” Burnikel says. “It is one thing that keeps myself and all the rest of the farmers going.”

“I mean, the markets, they have been up and down. Today we have seen a nice rebound. That makes people happy. We caught a little rain. So if Mother Nature and the markets can be nice to us, that is what we are asking for.”

Follow along on the Wyffels Plant Your Independence Tour as growers give updates through the planting and harvest season.

A $60-Per-Acre Risk: The High Cost Of Switching Corn Hybrids Too Early

Wed, 20 May 2026 18:10:37 GMT

According to the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress Report released on May 18, 2026, the nationwide planting pace for both corn and soybeans is running well ahead of historical averages:

The national snapshot shows:

Corn: 76% complete nationwide (6 points ahead of the 5-year average of 70%).
Soybeans: 67% complete nationwide (14 points ahead of the 5-year average of 53%).

While farmers in much of the country are cruising through planting, in several regions farmers are battling with weather. Rain and wet soils have created at least three logjams across the Corn Belt:

1. The Great Lakes Region, specifically Michigan & Northwest Ohio
2. Mid-Mississippi Valley, especially Missouri
3. Isolated Pockets of parts of Illinois

At the other extreme: much of the western U.S. and the Southeast are still being hammered by drought conditions.

Corn Strategy: Stick To The Plan (For Now)

As calendar pressure builds, farmers will start to consider switching corn hybrids and soybean maturities. However, Mike Hannewald, field agronomist for Beck’s Hybrids, warns that abandoning your original corn and soybean plans could be the biggest mistake you can make right now.

“We want to stick with the original plan, unless we’re really doing something extreme with 115‑day corn, or something excessive like that,” says Ohio-based Hannewald.

Here is why the data says you should hold the line through the rest of May, if you are in the Corn Belt:

The GDU “Cheat” Code: Research from Ohio State and Purdue University shows that for every day after May 1, there is a 6.8 Growing Degree Unit (GDU) reduction in the total number of GDUs corn needs to reach black layer. The corn detects it is late and actually accelerates its vegetative growth, writes Bob Nielsen, former Purdue University Extension corn specialist and professor emeritus.
The ROI on Full-Season Genetics: Granted, late-planted corn will be wetter at harvest, but Practical Farm Research (PFR) data shows the yield advantage of fuller-season hybrids will cover the drying costs and then some. The 3-year study factoring in drying costs at 4 cents per point revealed significant penalties for switching to early maturities too soon. As indicated in the chart below, going from a 112-day hybrid to a 105-day hybrid reduced net return by $63. Some of the other options show more extreme results.

(Beck’s Hybrids)

Hannewald draws the line at June 1. Once June arrives, he says it’s time to run GDU calculations to ensure your corn crop can reach black layer before the first fall frost for your area.

Soybean Strategy: Keep Maturity, Push Populations

For soybeans, Hannewald’s advice is identical on maturity but carries a critical management twist: leave your varieties in place, but crank up the seeding rate.

He says the data shows full-season bean varieties consistently out-yield short-season options because they have more calendar time to grow. However, late-planted beans lose time to build critical nodes and pods. To compensate for that issue, he tells farmers to pull the population lever.

Starting about now (May 20), he advises increasing your soybean planting population by 10,000 seeds per acre, per week. For example:

Week of May 20: If your base is 130,000, bump to 140,000.
Following Week: Bump to 150,000, and so on.
The Ceiling: Top out around 200,000 for a planter, or 220,000 for a drill if planting drags deep into June.

Shawn Conley, Extension soybean and small grains specialist at the University of Wisconsin, has a different perspective. He says most farmers should stay with about 100,000 to 140,000 seeds per acre if planting late but to narrow up your rows, if possible.

Optimal seeding rate for planting would be 100,000 seeds per acre, even in mid-May, according to Shawn Conley. “But, that really doesn’t take into effect delayed canopy and management of waterhemp,” he notes. For replanting considerations, Conley says he tells farmers that unless they have under 60,000 plants per acre and actively growing, his advice is “don’t do anything.”

(Shawn Conley)

The Golden Rule: Conditions Trump The Calendar

Even though the clock is ticking, Hannewald reminds growers that “mudding it in” is a losing proposition for planting either crop.

“Planting too wet into poor conditions and causing uneven emergence actually costs us more later in the season than what it did early, and that plays true for both corn and beans,” he says.

Learn more of Hannewald’s take on how to evaluate whether to switch corn hybrids and soybean maturities at the video here .

Grains Pressured as China Denies $17 Billion Trade Deal, Weather, Lower Crude Oil

Wed, 20 May 2026 15:54:58 GMT

Grain and livestock futures were mostly lower early Wednesday

Grains Pressured as China Denies $17 Billion Purchases
Corn and soybeans saw early pressure with doubts about the trade deal with China casting a shadow over prices.

In a statement Wednesday, China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed there had been a “guiding target” set between the two countries with the goal of “expanding two-way agricultural trade,” but made no mention of the U.S. government’s claimed $17 billion number for U.S. ag product purchases from China.

Meanwhile, China has indicated it would accept some increase in U.S. tariffs to a level agreed upon last year and would continue talks to extend a trade truce. The Commerce Ministry in Beijing said trade teams from both countries would discuss extending the one-year agreement worked out at negotiations in Kuala Lumpur, said a Bloomberg report.

Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart says the market was already doubting the deal yesterday wanting to see proof of sales.

However, China is unlikely to tip its hand with purchases the early he says, not wanting prices to rally and make U.S. commodities more expensive for them to buy.

China Hold Off or Not Fulfill the Deal?
China may be holding off for cheaper prices at harvest or Newsom says they may make smaller purchases that may not show up on the daily reporting and instead accumlate in the weekly purchases.

He adds that he is doubtful China will uphold the deal anyway based on their past actions.

The other key to when and if China makes purchases of U.S. goods, especially soybeans, will be what happens with weather and Brazil’s crop.

He thinks China may wait to see if Brazil gets their new crops planted and if the fear of a Super El Nino trimming yields will push them to have to buy U.S. products.

Weather, Fast Planting
Newsom also thinks the fast planting pace and no major threats to U.S. production area also pressuring the grain markets.

In the case of corn and soybeans, there are some spots of the Eastern Corn Belt that are too wet for planting, and some of the Western Corn Belt is still too dry. However, he thinks overall the crop is in good shape and that is also causing some fund liquidation.

Lower Crude Oil
An additional factor weighing on the grain markets is lower crude oil prices.

There is some profit taking in the crude oil market despite no resolution in the Iran war and that is spilling over into the corn, soybean and bean oil markets.

Wheat the Exception
The wheat market saw some early strength with recent rains missing some of the driest areas of the hard red winter wheat belt. However, there are more chances in the extended forecast.

Plus, wheat is getting pulled down with corn and soybeans and crude oil.

While the HRW crop may be getting smaller, Newsom says there is still no shortage of wheat in the world.

Bond Market Shows Inflationary Fear
The one part of the marketplace that is showing inflation fear tied to high energy prices is the bond or treasury market.

Newsom says the 30-year treasury bond hit 5.165% and is at a 19-year high.

This is driving up long term interest rates and the cost to borrow money for everyone, including farmers.

This could eventually spill over to curb consumer demand for beef as they see credit card interest rates rise. That could hurt the cattle market even though all the other supply fundamentals remain extremely bullish.

Cargill Initiates Lockout at Fort Morgan Beef Plant After Contract Rejection

Wed, 20 May 2026 14:35:02 GMT

A spokesperson for Cargill confirms the company initiated a lockout on May 20, 2026, at its Fort Morgan, Colo., beef facility following months of bargaining and an employee vote against the latest contract offer.

The Fort Morgan plant has not been harvesting since April 23 due to these ongoing labor negotiations with Teamsters Local 455 and the concern of a potential work stoppage. Beef processing involves live animals and highly coordinate operations. Cargill explains a sudden stoppage during production could create risks related to food safety, animals welfare and could result in extensive food waste.

“This was a difficult decision and not the outcome we wanted,” the Cargill spokesperson says. “The lockout was initiated because continued uncertainty around a potential work stoppage creates challenges for operating safely, responsibly and reliably. We respect employees’ right to vote and remain committed to reaching a ratified agreement with the union.”

Cargill reports the halt in processing in Fort Morgan is not impacting its weekly harvest numbers, just shifting production to other plants. At full capacity, Fort Morgan harvests 4,700 per day; prior to the halt it was averaging 4,000 head.

“We believe our proposal is fair and competitive, representing an estimated $33.4 million investment over five years,” the spokesperson stresses. “While negotiations continue, our focus remains on maintaining safety, managing operations responsibly and using Cargill’s broader supply chain network to continue serving customers. Under our current plans, we do not expect material impacts to producers or customers.”

On social media , a union leader says: “The members at Cargill have spoken loud and clear — by an overwhelming 85% vote, the company’s offer was rejected. Unity and solidarity sent a strong message that the membership deserves better.”

According to Teamsters , more than 1,700 teamsters were locked out after months of fighting for a new collective bargaining agreement.

“Shame on this company for shutting out our members. Cargill can afford to give these workers a fair deal that reflects their hard work and dedication,” says Dean Modecker, Teamsters Local 455
secretary-treasurer. “This was a disgraceful move by a company that has long taken its workers for granted. We won’t stand for it.”

Your Next Read:

Cargill Invests in Beef Business and Employees

Grains Fail Awaiting China Buys and Details: Cattle Bounce

Tue, 19 May 2026 21:38:36 GMT

Grain and cotton markets ended mostly lower on Tuesday except SRW wheat. In the livestock hogs were lower, cattle higher.

Grains End Mostly Lower Tuesday
Grain markets were higher overnight and early Tuesday following the big rally to start the week on news of China buying $17 billion of U.S. ag goods annually through 2028 on top of committed soybean purchases of 25 MMT.

However, the markets failed early into the day session with some profit taking as traders will now need to see proof of China purchases to continue buying according to Brian Grete with CommStock Investments.

“I think that the market’s just kind of waiting at this point in time, waiting on details to come on, more details on the trade side of things and or any confirmation from China on some of those purchase levels,” he adds.

When Will China Start Buying?
There were no flash sales on Tuesday morning, so when will China start buying?

Grete says, “Timing is one of the uncertainties that we don’t know with the deal. And I’m going to use soybeans as an example, because everything from the U.S. side of things so far has indicated that they would buy later in the year, and that would indicate new crop purchases.
So China could come in now and book new crop purchases. That wouldn’t be unusual for this time of year, but they could also wait if they want to.”

He says China has time on their side and will likely wait.

Tariff Rollbacks?
The market is also waiting to see if China is going to roll back the 10% tariffs on U.S. soybean exports and other products.

“One of the other uncertainties is whether this will be open to commercial-based purchases by China,” according to Grete, “And the key to that is whether there will be tariff rollbacks. The Foreign Ministry said that there would be some tariff reciprocity, but we shall see. If the U.S. takes off the 10% fentanyl tariff on China, then they’ll roll back their 10% on soybeans.”

That would make U.S. soybeans more economically feasible but right now Brazil’s soybean price is much lower than the U.S.

Marketing Year or Calendar Year?
Grete says the market would also like clarity on if the purchases or based on a marketing year versus calendar year.

“And if you remember back to October, there was all the confusion there. U.S. officials came out and said, well, they’d make the 12 million tons of purchases by the end of 2025 calendar year. And then it was all by the end of January or February. And all kinds of confusion on that. What we saw is the 12 million tons was purchased. It was by the end of March, basically. We don’t know if it’s calendar year, which governments work on calendar years or fiscal years, but markets work on marketing years,” he adds.

Grete says China’s marketing year is October through September, while in the United States, it’s September through August.

Enforcement Mechanism?
The other unknown is if there is an enforcement mechanism with the framework?

Grete says, “There needs to be, because if you remember back to Phase one, under the first Trump presidency, China bought gangbusters the first couple of years that culminated in 2022. And after that point in time, they started to drop off pretty significantly and they never did get to their end goal of what was agreed to under Phase one.”

The deal does run through the end of 2028, so through the end of the Trump administration.

“But three years is a long period of time to govern or keep track of whether China is on track to make its purchase agreed to purchases. So I think there needs to be some sort of compliance mechanism in this one.”

Does the U.S. Have Enough Ag Products to Sell China?
Another debate that has arose among some market analysts is whether or not the U.S. has enough U.S. ag products to supply $17 billion a year in addition to 25 million metric tons of soybeans.

Grete says, “Absolutely. There may be some changes in trade flows around the world. So let’s take soybeans, for example. If we send a bunch of soybeans to China, that may mean that somebody else has to step up and buy Brazilian beans that are displaced by U.S. soybeans going into China and those types of things. So whatever we’re talking about, whether it’s corn, wheat, sorghum, meat products, it’s going to take all those to get to that $17 billion beyond the soybeans.”

That will dictate a change in trade flows but he adds the U.S. will supply them with their needs.

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks
So if the U.S. sells China the whole 25 million metric tons of soybeans where does that take ending stocks?

“Oh, it would tighten them up,” says Grete, “Keep in mind, 2026 is prorated. So we’ll be working with a different set of numbers as we move into 2026-27.”

He says USDA lowered its ending stocks projection for 2026-27 from where they are in the current marketing year.

“So things might get tight, but I’m sure there will be something there. On the soybean side of things, any exports that go to China, we are now seeing more domestic use because of biofuels. And so that brings up an interesting conundrum because we will support the domestic biofuels,” he adds.

Hit Chart Resistance?
Grain markets also ran up into the top end of recent trading ranges on Tuesday and hit chart resistance.

He says that created some profit taking and farmer selling. “There is a big double top on the July corn chart that needs to be cleared. And so questions there, can it happen or not? Who knows? Farmer selling. I believe there probably was some farmer selling. No real way to confirm that but if farmers aren’t selling they probably need to be especially if they’re behind on their sales right now,” he adds.

Fast Planting
U.S. corn planting was at 76% on Monday and soybean planting at 67%, which are both well ahead of the five year average, which also pressured the market.

“I think if you look at the plantings and overlay that with topsoil and subsoil and drought conditions and all that, it’s setting up as a haves versus the have-nots. And right now, just rough numbers, about two-thirds are halves where they have plentiful moisture and the crop’s off to a good start. About one-third is the have-nots where drought conditions, =soil moisture conditions are very dry and they need to have some timely rain. So we’ll see how that evolves,” he adds.

Wheat Conditions Fall
U.S. winter wheat conditions were only 27% good to excellent and 43% poor to very poor, so some of the worst in history.

Is that all priced into the market?

Grete says, “Those are the second worst since USDA has been doing national weekly ratings since 1986. And only 1989 was worse than this year at this point in time in mid-May. And so, you know, 43% is poor to very poor, that has a real risk of not being harvested this year.”

That will mean a high level of abandonment in the plains HRW states.

“I do think that that’s mostly factored in the market. Anybody that doesn’t know about how poor the HRW crop is this year just hasn’t been paying attention, to be honest,” he explains.

Money Flow
Money flow has also had a large impact on the grain markets according to Grete.

“Ultimately, no matter what the reason is, whether it’s fundamental, technical, whatever, money flow at the end of the day determines what happens on a price structure. And we saw last Thursday and Friday just massive money flowing out of long positions. And it was a massive net
long. So they shed a bunch of that. But then they come back in on Monday and buy a bunch. And so the money flow will be a key price determinant as we move forward here near term.”

Cattle Bounce But Disconnect With Cash
Cattle futures were higher on Tuesday seeing a technical bounce with the big discount to record cash trade.

That spread is abnormally wide. So why aren’t the futures responding?

Grete says, “I think that the trader at this point in time is just saying, hey, cash, you do your thing and we’re going to sit here and wait on the cash market to eventually roll over and it eventually will and come back to the futures. And so they’ve just decided they’re not going to aggressively chase to the upside.”

That doesn’t mean the futures won’t make new highs, it just means the discount is going to remain wide especially in the back months.

“USDA’s forecast for the fourth quarter, average cash price is $255, and the futures are trading well below that at this point in time.”

Funds Liquidating
The funds have been slow shedding length but are they spooked by headlines of higher beef imports, the DOJ probe or other headline risk?

He says that is possible. “If you remember back earlier in the spring, it seemed like late in the week, every time that they chased to the upside because the cash market was on fire, there would be a rumor that started about something, whether it’s the border reopening or some other market factor. And it just kind of tripped up the futures. And I think that, quite honestly, they’re tired of it and they don’t want to deal with the whipsaw back and forth. And so they’ve decided not to chase anymore.”

Cattle on Feed on Friday
The market is also positioning ahead of the Cattle on Feed report, although placements could be higher because it is being compared to much lower numbers of a year ago.

He says, “Yeah, huge range in the estimates on placements. So that will be the read, so to speak, on the report. The feedlot inventory is expected to be up about 1.5%, a little bit more than that from a year ago. And like you said, we are now comparing apples to apples because the border was fully shut at this point in time in 2025.”

Lean Hogs Fail Again
The lean hog futures were down again on Tuesday failing to establish a solid low in the market.

Grete says the futures premium to the cash index is part of the problem.

“If you remember back to late winter timeframe, in early March, we caught fire and we rallied and everything looked really bullish at that point in time. The cash market just literally leveled out since that point and futures have been doing nothing but removing a bunch of that premium.
So basically the cash market sideways and the futures down since early March when we had the high in both the cash index and the futures,” he states.

He says the slaughter numbers actually line up really well with what the last H&P report said. However, with the talk of disease there could be some revisions in the June report.

CattleFax 2025 Survey: Record $2,246 Calf Revenue Drives Historic Cow-Calf Profits

Tue, 19 May 2026 19:51:55 GMT

Cow-calf producers navigated a high-stakes market in 2025, according to the latest CattleFax survey. The latest survey reveals a paradox in the 2025 cattle market: while it has never been more expensive to keep a cow, it has also rarely been more profitable to sell a calf. With data representing 300,000 cows across 40 states, the report provides a definitive benchmark for producers navigating today’s volatile environment.

“Surging calf prices in 2025 far outpaced the increase in cow costs leading to the strongest cow-calf profits recorded since CattleFax has been conducting this survey,” says CattleFax Analyst Matthew McQuagge.

The average herd size within this sample increased to 391 cows, which McQuagge explains is primarily due to a decrease in participants with 100 or fewer head.

Record Cash Cow Costs vs. Surging Calf Revenue

Cash cow costs increased $27 per head to $780 for a new record in the CattleFax database. However, higher calf prices have continued to offset the elevated costs. Participants reported an average revenue of $2,246 per calf in 2025, up $631 from 2024. Adjusting for weaning percentages, average cow-calf profit margins increased by $614 per head compared to 2024. Steer weaning weights were 7 lb. higher at 563 lb. and heifers were also up 7 lb. to 528 lb. The weaned calf crop percentage saw a small improvement in 2025 with an average of 87.9%.

	U.S. Average
2025 Cow Costs vs. Calf Revenue
Calf Value	$2,246
Cow Cost (as reported)	$780
Weaned Calf Crop %	87.9%
Cow Cost (% calf crop adjusted)	$897
Profit (% calf crop adjusted)	$1,361
Estimated Cost for Unpaid Labor & Depreciation	$288
Estimated Net Margin	$1,073
Weaning Weights
Steers	563
Heifers	528
Pounds Weaned per Exposed Female	478
Other Factors
Cow Herd Size	391
Bull Purchase Price	$7,542
Planned expansion from 2025 to 2026
Increase herd by 10% or more	33%
Increase herd by less than 10%	18%
No change or minimal change in herd size	38%
Reduce herd by less than 10%	6%
Reduce herd by 10% or more	5%

(CattleFax)

Benchmarking High-Return vs. Low-Return Operations

“Producer profitability continued to show wide ranges, driven by differences in costs, revenues, weaning rates and calf weights,” McQuagge says. “High-return producers consistently generate 10% more pounds weaned per exposed female than average and low-return operations. This is driven in large part by a tighter calving season length which, in turn, supports both heavier calf weights at weaning as well as a larger overall weaning percentage.”

Every year, CattleFax sorts survey responses into three equal-sized categories based on weaning-adjusted profit status to further evaluate what sets “high-return” producers apart from “average” or “low-return” operators. High-return operations recorded an average net return of $1,726 per head while low-return ones received an average of $1,001 per head, which McQuagge says is still a historically strong margin.

While the entire sector saw historically strong margins, “high-return” operations separated themselves through vaccination, weaning programs and superior calf crop percentages.

“The last two years have noted a more uniform spread of both cow costs and calf values between return groups, likely attributed to higher calf prices creating a greater, more even distribution in profits among operations,” he says. “High-return operations were characterized as placing greater emphasis on managerial practices that result in a larger weaned calf crop percentage of 90% compared to low- and average-return producers with 85% and 88% calf crops respectively.”

High-return producers were also more likely to implement value-added production practices such as vaccination and weaning programs.

High-return producers were also more likely to implement value-added production practices such as vaccination and weaning programs.

(CattleFax)

Key Management Correlations for High Returns

McQuagge says other management practices that stand out across time for increasing an operations’ net margin is having two-plus rounds of vaccinations and weaning for over 45 days. The 2025 data identifies three critical areas where management directly impacts the bottom line:

Calving Season Length: Shorter calving intervals (0 to 45 days) resulted in the highest weaning weights (averaging 555 lb.) compared to 90-plus day intervals (484 lb.).
Vaccination Protocols: Calf value peaked for producers who vaccinated three to four times, adding hundreds of dollars in value compared to zero-vaccination programs.
Bull Investment: There is a direct correlation between bull purchase price and calf revenue. Bulls purchased for more than $9,500 consistently produced the highest-value calves.

(CattleFax)

How Much Does it Cost to Keep a Cow?

Cash cow costs reached a new record in the CattleFax database.

Average Cash Cow Cost: $780 per head (up $27 from the previous year).
Cost Breakdown: Feed and hay remain the largest expenses (34%), followed by pasture (32%) and hired labor (14%).
Regional Highs: The Northern Plains reported the highest cash costs at $861 per head, while the Southeast remained the lowest at $703.

Is the U.S. Cattle Herd Expanding?

The survey suggests a strong intent to grow the national herd through 2027:

2026 Expansion: 33% of U.S. producers plan to increase their herd by 10% or more.
2027 Outlook: 29% of producers expect to continue expanding by 10% or more, indicating long-term confidence in the market.

Regional Performance Benchmarks

The survey highlights significant differences in production across the U.S. regions:

Northern Plains: Led the nation in steer weaning weights (576 lb.) and pregnancy percentage (93%).
Southern Plains: Reported a 571-lb. steer weaning weight and a 55-day average calving interval.
Southeast: While weaning weights were lower (536 lb. for steers), the region benefited from the lowest cash costs in the country.
Corn Belt: Reported the smallest average herd size at 143 head, compared to the West’s 669 head.

Market Outlook: Will Tight Calf Supplies Maintain Producer Leverage?

Patrick Linnell, CattleFax director of market research, summarizes, “Ultimately, the current market environment has supported the average cow-calf producer in making record profits over the past few years with strong likelihood that this sector will continue to maintain favorable leverage over the next couple of years as domestic calf supplies remain tight.”

He adds, while every operation’s situation is unique, opportunities exist through increasing efficiencies or managing cost to improve profitability, regardless of the current market environment.

The CattleFax 2025 Cow-Calf Survey was sponsored by Crystalyx and Sweetlix. CattleFax will host a free webinar reviewing the survey as well as a market outlook on May 20 at 5:30 p.m. MT.

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Farmers Voice Deep Frustration Over Disconnect With Washington Ahead of Midterms, New Poll Finds

Tue, 19 May 2026 18:58:13 GMT

From drought plaguing producers in the Plains and South to planters finally getting several uninterrupted days to roll, farmers across the country are focused on growing this year’s crop and weathering the extremes. But with the midterm elections now just six months away, a new survey is offering insight into how farmers and ranchers are feeling politically and financially heading into campaign season.

A Farm Journal poll commissioned by Amato Advisors surveyed nearly 1,000 farmers and ranchers across the U.S., with a heavy focus on swing states. The results point to mounting frustration over rising costs, economic uncertainty and what many producers describe as a growing disconnect with Washington.

“I don’t know if I would say surprise. I think they’re concerning, and I think there are some real alarm bells going off across the countryside,” says Mike Amato of Amato Advisors.

Farmers Say Washington Doesn’t Understand Agriculture Today

One of the most striking findings in the survey was the overwhelming number of farmers who believe elected officials do not understand the realities facing agriculture today.

“I think it also stood out to me that, I think in some ways farmers feel a little not heard in Washington, DC, and this is not a political statement. I think, it’s from both parties,” Amato says. “73% of farmers said that their elected officials don’t understand what it’s like to be a farmer or what’s happening on the farm. Uh and that and that to me was a strong signal that um there’s a disconnect between what’s really happening on the land and what’s happening in Washington DC.”

(Farm Journal)

The poll found nearly three out of four farmers surveyed said elected officials do not understand the realities they face. Only 19% responded that elected officials understood somewhat well, while just under 4% said they felt very well understood.

Global Conflict Adds to Cost Concerns

The survey also examined how geopolitical tensions are affecting producers’ outlooks. When asked how the conflict in Iran could impact their operations, farmers overwhelmingly pointed to concerns over rising fuel and fertilizer costs.

“94% said that it would affect fuel or fertilizer prices. And about 80% said it would effect both. So this is nearly all farmers being hit by this conflict,” Amato says.

When asked about the biggest challenges facing their operations today, 78% of respondents identified machinery and input costs as top concerns.

(Farm Journal)

Tyson Redpath, chairman of the Russell Group, a Washington-area government relations firm, says many of those concerns are tied directly to trade policy and tariffs.

“In the concern about input costs and machinery cost, this cost price squeeze that we hear so much about, I don’t wonder Tyne if a little bit of that, maybe a lot of that in terms of concerns over input costs and machinery costs are tied to tariffs, are tied to tariff policy in our trade policy currently,” Redpath says.

Affordability Becomes the Central Political Issue

Redpath says affordability will likely dominate campaign messaging heading into the midterms.

“Affordability, one way or the other, is the defining buzzword of this campaign,” Redpath says. “The administration, the president, his team, started the year on that note. And so the opposition is all too eager to use that and to call into question that.”

He adds inflation continues to weigh heavily on both rural and urban voters.

“It’s really been the central issue since we pumped $8 trillion into the economy during COVID and post-COVID,” Redpath says. “And when you pump $8 trillion into an economy, as we saw over the last four and a half years, inflation is not transient. It’s not transitory. It’s sticky and it’s stubborn.”

A Mixed Financial Picture in Agriculture

The survey found mixed sentiment regarding farm finances. Nearly 43% of respondents described their farm’s financial condition over the past 12 months as good. However, when asked to compare their current condition to three years ago, 34% said things were somewhat worse, while only 20% said somewhat better.

Callie Eideberg, principal at the Vogel Group, says those results are not surprising given the economic pressures producers have faced.

“It doesn’t surprise me because there have been quite a number of policy decisions over the last year and a half that have put pressure on both cost in raising those costs and the prices that folks are paying for everyday goods,” Eideberg says.

“So if you’re a farmer who is trying to produce a crop, every single line item in your budget is getting more expensive,” she says. “But you’re also seeing the price that you’re getting paid for those crops decrease. And that is not a winning equation.”

Redpath says the survey results also reflect growing divisions within the ag economy itself.

“The thing that stands out foremost is that to quote Charles Dickens, it is somewhat of a tale of two cities,” Redpath says. “It’s the best of times if you’re sort of on the livestock side and it’s not the greatest of times for row crops, though improving.”

He points to improving grain prices but notes overall sentiment remains divided.

“We have seen prices for corn, for wheat especially, and for beans continue to escalate. So moving in a positive direction,” he says. “But I think that’s reflected in just sort of, you know, the 50-50 split that you see between, frankly, the forecast and sentiment for farmers.”

Will Farmers Change Their Vote?

Despite frustrations over policy and economics, Redpath says the survey showed relatively little appetite among producers to dramatically change voting behavior.

“Only 7%, and I go from the bottom of the polling results up, right? Cause it’s easy to say 60% this or 70% this, but take a look at it’s sort of the bottom piece,” Redpath says. “Only seven percent, seven percent single digits said that they were prepared today to vote for someone else.”

The survey found 61% of respondents said they planned to vote for the same party they supported in the last election, while 17% said they were reconsidering switching parties or voting independent.

(Farm Journal)

Eideberg notes that historically, midterm elections often challenge the party in power.

“Usually the midterm election right after the presidential election does not go well for the incumbent presidential party,” Eideberg says. “And in this case, we have what we call a Republican trifecta, where the Republicans hold the White House, the House, and the Senate.”

“So it’s very, very difficult for any incumbent right now, especially an incumbent in the majority, to blame somebody else because all of the policies that farmers, consumers, and all Americans are facing right now are a direct result of policy decisions made by the current leadership in Washington,” she says.

Why E15 Is Gaining Political Importance

Eideberg says one issue gaining traction among rural voters is year-round E15 approval. especially in key swing states.

“E15 has really risen in importance,” Eideberg says. “At least in the DC circles and outside in the heartland too, is being seen as a way to save farmers from bankruptcy at this point.”

She says weakening export markets have increased the urgency around finding additional domestic demand.

“We need, farmers need a secondary market to sell into,” Eideberg says. “And so E15 has really risen in importance.”

But the bigger theme emerging from the poll released this week specifically dissecting the ag vote may be not only the dwindling trust in government among those in agriculture, but also the overwhelming number of farmers who say those in Washington simply do not understand what is happening on farms and ranches across the country.

When asked whether that frustration is actually being heard in Washington, Tyson Redpath says he believes policymakers are paying attention, but structural challenges are making rural voices harder to hear. But for Redpath, the notion of farmers not being heard is something that’s known in Washington.

“I think so,” Redpath says. “As we’re talking about redistricting and the brushfire that has swept the country in terms of trying to redistrict state maps, even this close before an election, you had a landmark ruling on the Voting Rights Act out of the Supreme Court the week before last. You had the Virginia Supreme Court overrule their redistricting effort late last week.”

“Why do I bring all that up?” he says. “The typical congressional district today represents 728,000 people. It was the reapportionment process was never supposed to lead to a House of Representatives where each congressional district represents 720,000. What that means is the voice of the farmer, the voice of rural America gets lost when you have congressional districts.”

https://www.agweb.com/news/policy/ag-economy/paying-1-500-day-fuel-two-tractors-farmer-calls-input-costs-worst-1980s

For Redpath, that raises concerns that farmers and ranchers are increasingly being pushed farther from the center of the political conversation, despite agriculture’s critical role in the U.S. economy.

“We are victims of our own success,” Redpath says. “We are the most incredibly productive system of agriculture and farming that the world has ever known. You combine that with the fact that a congressional district now represents over 700,000 people, and it’s just really hard for Ag’s voice to be heard. More importantly, hard for AG’s voice to be understood.”

Agriculture’s Voice in Washington

That growing disconnect mirrors what political scientist Nicholas Jacobs says has become a decades-long erosion of trust, particularly in rural America.

“Trust in government, trust in what government says, the data that it puts out, the data that informs its policies, and since the 1970s it has just plummeted nationwide in this country,” Jacobs says.

“As fast as it’s fallen nationwide, it has hit rock bottom in rural areas,” he says.

For Jacobs, rebuilding that trust may ultimately be one of the country’s greatest political challenges.

“When I think about our political problems, I sort of end and begin with this question of trust, how we work together and how we solve problems together,” Jacobs says. “You can be conservative, you can be progressive, libertarian, but if you don’t have trust in the people around you, you ain’t getting anything done.”

The Growing Divide Between Rural and Urban America

The growing political importance of rural America has also drawn attention from academics studying voting trends.

Nicholas Jacobs, a professor at Colby College and co-author of The Rural Voter: The Politics of Place and the Disuniting of America , says the divide between rural and urban voters has been building for decades.

“We went all the way back until the early 1820s to understand whether or not this divide between cities and rural spaces is historically unprecedented,” Jacobs says. “You don’t have to buy the book. I’ll just tell you, it is.”

Jacobs says rural voters often prioritize local concerns differently than urban voters.

“Those issues tend to be very different than the issues that are talked about in national media,” Jacobs says. “People are thinking about their local community. I think people are thinking about what’s going on with the local school. Is my town government working? Are small businesses able to succeed?”

He says one of the biggest distinctions is how rural voters define progress.

“What we really need to ask them is, is your community better off than it was four years ago?” Jacobs says. “That is one of the biggest differences that we find between rural voters and urban voters is a different orientation to the political world.”

“What matters is the place, not always just the person,” he says.

Jacobs also notes that while fewer rural Americans work directly in agriculture today, farming still holds enormous cultural influence in rural communities.

“While a small and smaller still number of rural individuals are directly employed in agricultural industries, it’s like these industries are symbolically powerful and culturally meaningful,” Jacobs says.

Seismic Shift Unlikely in Midterms

He cautions against assuming any one issue or candidate will suddenly reshape rural voting patterns.

“This partisan realignment or this growing gap between rural and urban areas predates 2016,” Jacobs says. “It is decades in the making. And I think I’m not ever confident that a single issue or even a single candidate is really going to bring about a seismic shift in what has been a decades long transformation.”

Still, the broader message emerging from the survey may be less about partisan politics and more about trust.

“Trust in government, trust in what government says, the data that it puts out, the data that informs its policies, and since the 1970s it has just plummeted nationwide in this country,” Jacobs says.

“As fast as it’s fallen nationwide, it has hit rock bottom in rural areas,” he says.

For Jacobs, rebuilding that trust may ultimately be one of the country’s greatest political challenges.

“When I think about our political problems, I sort of end and begin with this question of trust, how we work together and how we solve problems together,” Jacobs says. “You can be conservative, you can be progressive, libertarian, but if you don’t have trust in the people around you, you ain’t getting anything done.”

Asian Copperleaf On The Move In Iowa And Illinois

Tue, 19 May 2026 17:11:08 GMT

Asian copperleaf isn’t a household name in the Midwest, but in a growing cluster of Iowa fields the weed is starting to reshape farmers’ herbicide plans and harvest decisions, according to Meaghan Anderson, Iowa State University Extension field agronomist.

She reports the weed is now confirmed in 10 Iowa counties: Black Hawk (first confirmation was in 2016), Boone, Buchanan, Calhoun, Fayette, Franklin, Grundy, Hardin, Humboldt and Wright.

Farmers who have identified the weed in their fields are taking measures to control it this season, Anderson says. Others may not realize they have the weed, as it is such a newcomer in the state and no one has determined how it arrived.

Key Corridor Of Concern

Asian copperleaf is non-native to the United States. The first confirmed populations of this species were documented in New York in 1990. Currently, in Iowa, the weed’s known footprint cuts a narrow but significant swath across the center of the state.

“What’s particularly interesting to me is that Highway 20 runs through that area,” Anderson says. “There’s something about that corridor, whether it’s that the environment is well-suited for the weed or whether there’s actually something to do with the highway, we’ve really got no idea.”

The weed expanded across state boundaries this past year. University of Illinois crop scientists confirmed Asian copperleaf in Stephenson County, northwest Illinois, following corn harvest last fall. This finding is the first confirmed Asian copperleaf population in the state.

The Risk To Crop Yields

As of now, there is no concrete data from Midwest fields on yield impact from the weed in corn and soybeans yet, but Anderson does not dismiss the risk.

“There is a paper from South Korea that said with extremely high populations of Asian copperleaf, (farmers there) could see anywhere from about a 17% to 29% yield reduction in soybean,” she says.

The weed often shows up in patches along field edges, in gaps in the crop canopy, and in wetter, slow-to-grow cropping areas within fields. Those patterns make formal yield trials tricky, but growing infestations in Buchanan and Fayette counties are big enough for in-field studies this year, she notes.

“As awful and unlucky as it is for some of these farmers, it means we can now do some research in the field,” Anderson says. “Hopefully we’ll gather some more useful information, and we may be able to gather some of the yield data as well.”

Management And Control Measures

For growers currently managing the weed, Anderson says the priority is to minimize seed movement and prevent the weed’s spread. On the chemistry front for control, she stresses that the recommendations are early and based on greenhouse screening plus limited farmer experience. Even so, some trends are emerging.

“When we sprayed one of the populations with post herbicides, it was quite clear that the contact products like our Group 14s and Liberty (glufosinate) were superior to basically any of the other options we screened for post-emergence control,” she says.

She adds that growth regulator herbicides and glyphosate appear to do “OK,” but she reiterates the strongest performance has come from Group 14 contact herbicides.

“It has a really long emergence pattern, so people can, for better or worse, think of it kind of like waterhemp right now,” Anderson adds. “It’s going to emerge fairly late into the summer, as long as it’s got enough sunlight and moisture.”

New Publication Details More Insights

The biggest immediate risk for farmers in areas where the weed has been found may be simple misidentification. Crop scientists from Iowa and Illinois have put together a new flyer to provide more insignts on the new weed species: Asian copperleaf publication .

Anderson urges farmers and agronomists to push pause whenever scouting weed pressure and something looks out of the ordinary.

“This time of year, the weed will be emerging through pre-herbicides. If you’re seeing a thick mat of something that looks like waterhemp but isn’t behaving like it, let us know,” she says. “We need as many eyes on this weed as we can get.”

Grains Stall After China Rally: Cattle Bounce

Tue, 19 May 2026 16:14:37 GMT

Grains are slightly higher Tuesday morning, with livestock mostly higher.

Grains Firm Looking for China Purchases
Grain futures were seeing follow through buy on Tuesday after sharply higher prices on Monday tied to a White House fact sheet confirming China would buy $17 billion of ag goods annually through 2028, on top of the 25 MMT of soybean purchases announced in October of 2025.

Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer, says much of this news is priced into grain futures so to continue to see momentum the market will need to see some proof of China purchases.

He says, “We saw that big selling last Thursday and Friday and we made up a big chunk of those losses but you have to remember Wednesday was saw for the move high closes and then we gave up a lot of that. So, we’re kind of back into what I would consider to be an equilibrium.”

The market has taken out the negative catalyst but continues to look forward says Akre.

“I don’t think it’s going to be easy for this market to work higher without some actual purchases from China or just some additional rhetoric on what this framework deal actually means,” he states.

Plus, there were no flash sales announced on Tuesday according to Akre, “But we haven’t seen any daily sales yet. Maybe they’re making some purchases that are below those daily thresholds, but they’re just not popping up quite yet. And until we see what products they actually start buying. I think it’s going to be hard to put in some fresh highs just based on this China demand news.”

How Soon Before Sales Show Up?
Akre expects some flash sales in the next week for many crops, except soybeans.

“We might be waiting until new crop for soybeans. And we don’t have abundant stocks by any means. We only had 81 million acres of soybeans last year and our ending stocks, they’re healthy, but they’re not overly abundant. And I think the way that the market’s pricing things right now, it’s going to be a while before China really reenters that book.”

However, Akre was disappointed there were no flash sales from China last week as historically China has made goodwill purchases ahead of the big trade summits.

“And I think that kind of played into a lot of that negative rhetoric that we saw on Thursday and Friday. Maybe we’ll see some sales pop up next Thursday if they’re buying under those daily thresholds and we’ve also seen that the export reporting system hasn’t exactly been what it was pre-DOGE so we’ve seen a lot of export adjustments,” he says.

No China Confirmation
China has not confirmed this $17 billion of additional ag business yet but Akre says there was early rhetoric saying that China is interested in
buying these U.S. goods.

“USTR Greer, he had talked about that U.S. agriculture is going to be very happy. And there’s still some positive signs to look forward to and this really does indicate that last Thursday and Friday was an overreaction. But when you hype up this meeting saying agriculture is going to be very happy and then you don’t mention agriculture at all in the first few days, there’s going to be a lot of frustrations,” he adds.

Does the U.S. Have 25 MMT of Soybeans or Other Crops to Sell?
Under the framework the U.S. is going to have to make 25 MMT of sales to China or 918 million bu. by the end of the calendar year.

Does the U.S. even have enough new crop soybeans to sell to China?

Akre says, “China is historically in the market for U.S. beans very early in the season especially new crop. Generally, about this time of the year, they’re already buying.”

He says that has been different under this administration but Chinese soybean shipments usually peak in November through January.

“So I think 25 million metric tons isn’t out of the realm of possibility for soybeans. For the other crops, this is going to be a very interesting year just because of the way the inputs have been and the shifts in acreages.”

The last two years sorghum and cotton acreage has fallen and cotton has been under 10 million two years in a row.

“And that’s largely because China hasn’t been a big player in the U.S. market. Well now we’ve got the $17 billion worth of purchases to kind of work through and a good chunk of that could go to corn but our corn export demand is already phenomenal. Some of that could go to wheat but we’re not going to have a ton of wheat this year just the way that the weather has played out and the wheat wheat book could end up getting very tight towards the end of the year,” he explains.

The extension of the Iran war is also constraining acreage around the world due to high input prices.

Crude Oil Cools
One of the factors limiting bigger gains in the grain markets on Tuesday was the cooling of the crude oil market with President Trump backing off his threat to escalate military action.

Akre says, “Yeah, crude is kind of near the recent highs from the past couple of weeks. We’ve really snuck up to this like $108 mark, and the deferred contracts are now starting to show some more signs of strength. I think the market’s starting to price in this conflict lasting longer than expected. We’re already in the third month and I’ve said it before the market has not respected the impact that this is going to have
long term on the crude market.”

The summer driving season is also ramping up and so demand will not be slowing down.

That will continue to support corn and ethanol grind though as well as strong exports of U.S. ethanol.

Fast Planting Pace
The market is also digesting the fast planting pace reported by USDA on Monday.

U.S. corn planting is at 76% on corn and 67% on beans. That’s well ahead of the five-year average.

“Soybean planting is basically setting records every year as guys have been getting in the fields earlier. So, not too big of a surprise there,” he says.

Yet there are concerns with cold temperature in the Northwestern Corn Belt and too much rain in Eastern Iowa and areas of Illinois which are forcing some replant.

Winter Wheat Rating Drops
Winter wheat ratings dropped 1% on Monday to 27% good to excellent and were at 43% poor to very poor.

These are historically, very low numbers, and so Akre thinks the market has some work to do to price that in.

“The wheat market currently isn’t lacking any bullish catalysts and the U.S. crops are facing a lot of headwinds. Yields are going to be sharply lower. We saw that sharply lower from last year. We saw that with the Kansas and Oklahoma wheat tours, projecting half a crop in Oklahoma,” he describes.

Akre says three years ago late season rain boosted the winter wheat crop from the low expectations.

However, with El Nino getting delayed that may mean the dry conditions will persist and cut the crop even further.

“the U.S. balance sheet is going to be getting tight and wheat we’re going to have to be very careful with where we’re sending our wheat because especially as the world wheat stocks are tightening, plantings are are shifting and 2027 isn’t shaping up to be an abundant year for wheat stocks by any means,” he adds.

Grains Hitting Technical Resistance
The grain markets are all hitting chart resistance at the upper end of the trading ranges and will need more bullish news to break out.

“Corn is basically butting up against the top end of the downtrend that we saw from last month’s highs. And if we can get a close July above $4.80, that’d be a really positive sign. Wheat has also it’s been making up those losses from last week. On the soybean side of things, we need just a little bit of a bump demand-wise, I think.”

Closing new crop Dec corn above $5 and keeping Nov soybeans above $12 is also important.

Cattle Relucantly Follow Cash
Cattle futures were slightly higher on Tuesday but have been lagging the record cash market.

Cash cattle trade averaged a new record of $262.85 last week, up $4.33 from the previous week.

Akre thinks some of it is traders rolling out of the front month contract but it is also concern about higher gas prices pinching food budgets.

Plus, the DOJ packer investigation and fear of higher beef imports are also planting a role.

“And that’s just driving funds to kind of expand these discounts to the cash market,” he adds.

Funds are also liquidating and taking profits with the bull market starting to mature, despite strong fundamentals.

“Right now I think we’re seeing one of those more irrational times where the fundamentals remain very strong. The cash market is obviously very strong. Demand remains very strong, but we’re seeing bigger than normal discounts. And I just, I think it’s one of those more irrational periods more than anything.”

Hogs Trying to Bottom?
Lean hog futures were lower Monday on higher grain and feed prices and seemingly unimpressed with the China deal leading to any additional U.S. pork export business.

The market is holding last week’s lows says Akre but is still trying to confirm a bottom.

“We’ve been having contra-seasonal cash market weakness in the CME Lean Hog Index, and that’s been undercutting futures for late spring and now early summer. And I think that’s been a lot to do with the weakness that we’ve seen,” he says.

However, he thinks the bottom is close at hand.