AgDay Daily Recap - August 11, 2017

August 11, 2017 02:57 AM
 
AgDay

TODAY ON AGDAY
AUGUST 11, 2017


HEADLINES
USDA SHOCKING THE  MARKETS WITH BETTER EXPECTED PRODUCTION AND  YIELDS... MEANING RED PLASTERED ACROSS THE CME  ON THURSDAY.  DEFINITELY A BEARISH TONE COMING OUT OF THESE  REPORTS.THAT'S AS PRODUCTION SHINES IN THE SOUTHERN  STATES.  TRADE TALKS HEAT UP... AND IT HAS AG GROUPS AND  BUSINESSES ON EDGE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BORDER.    N AGRIBUSINESS, IT'S NOT JUST A TREND OF HEAVIER  WEIGHTS CREATING A STORY IN THE CATTLE MARKET... < WE'RE SEEING A BIG SHIFT IN MOVEMENT OF CALVES AND YEARLINGS  THIS YEAR> AND DITCHING DAIRY IS A POPULAR TREND... BUT IT'S  NOT WHA THE DOCTOR ORDERED.  AGDAY - PRESENTED BY CHEVY SILVERADO. HIGH-STRENGTH STEEL FOR  HIGH-STRENGTH DEPENDABILITY.

AUGUST USDA REPORT
GOOD MORNING I'M TYNE MORGAN. CLINTON GRIFFITHS  IS ON ASSIGNMENT. HE'LL JOIN US IN JUST A FEW  MINUTES. USDA STUMPED TRADERS WITH ITS AUGUST CROP  PRODUCTION ESTIMATES. WHILE THE AG DEPARTMENT  LOWERED ITS EXPECTATIONS FOR THE 2017 CORN  CROP, IT'S STILL HIGHER THAN WHAT ANALYSTS WERE  EXPECTING. USDA TRIMMED ITS ESTIMATE OF THE U-S CORN YIELD  TO 169-AND-A HALF BUSHELS AN ACRE. IT'S DOWN FIVE  BUSHELS FROM LAST YEAR. BUT STILL HIGHER THAN  THE AVERAGE PRE-REPORT GUESS OF 166 BUSHELS AN  ACRE. . PRODUCTION COMES IN AT 14-POINT-TWO BILLION  BUSHELS. SEVEN PERCENT LOWER THAN LAST YEAR. BUT AGAIN, MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT TRADERS  EXPECTED. . USDA BUMPED THE SOYBEAN YIELD TO 49-POINT-FOUR  BUSHELS AN ACRE. LAST MONTH IT WAS 48 BUSHELS TO  THE ACRE. NEW PRODUCTION ESTIMATES COME IN AT FOUR-POINT- FOUR BILLION BUSHELS. FOCUSING ON THE TOP FIVE CORN STATES - ILLINOIS,  IOWA AND MINNESOTA ARE ALL LOWER THAN LAST  YEARS PRODUCTION LEVELS. IOWA HAS A STATEWIDE AVERAGE YIELD 15 BUSHELS  BELOW LAST YEAR. . INDIANA IS UNCHANGED, DESPITE DECLINING CROP  CONDITIONS. . AND NEBRASKA IS ACTUALLY HIGHER  FROM LAST YEAR. . IN SOYBEANS - ALL FIVE OF THOSE SAME STATES HAVE  DROPPED IN THEIR STATE AVERAGE YIELDS. WHILE THE CORN YIELDS DROPPED IN THE MIDWEST,  SOUTHERN STATES ARE SEEING  BIG GAINS IN YIELDS.  THIS USDA MAP LAYS IT OUT RATHER CLEARLY. THE  BLUE REFLECT INCREASE YIELDS THROUGHOUT THE  SOUTH. WHILE THE RED INDICATES LOSSES IN THE  CORN BELT. BETSY JIBBEN BREAKS DOWN THOSE SOUTHERN  NUMBERS, BETSY.         USDA SAYS THIS CROP COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE  THIRD LARGEST ON RECORD. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE  NUMBERS, THE SOUTHERN STATES SEEM TO BE  SHINING THIS YEAR. NINE SOUTHERN STATES ARE  SEEING DOUBLE-DIGIT GAINS WITH CORN YIELDS. BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE,  FEWER PLANTED ACRES  MEANS, 6 OF THOSE 9 STATES ARE SEEING LOWER  TOTAL PRODUCTION.    OF THE MOST IMPRESSIVE:  ALABAMA'S YIELD PER ACRE IS UP 45 FROM LAST YEAR. LOUISIANA'S YIELD PER ACRE IS UP 27 FROM 2016.  AND MISSISSIPPI'S YIELD ESTIMATE IS UP 19 BUSHELS  PER ACRE FROM LAST YEAR AS WELL. ENNESSEE, ARKANSAS, GEORGIA, KENTUCKY, NORTH  CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA ALSO SEEING DOUBLE- DIGIT BOOSTS IN YIELD. BUT WHEN YOU ADD IN ACRES, ARKANSAS, KENTUCKY,  LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA  ARE EXPECTED TO  TOTAL PRODUCTION ACTUALLY  DROP SLIGHTLY THIS YEAR.  KEEPING THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE - WHEN WE LOOK AT  TOTAL PRODUCTION ACRES, THOSE 9 SOUTHERN  STATES TOTAL ADD UP TO JUST OVER 5 MILLION  ACRES.COMPARE THE PRODUCTION ACRES TO IOWA WHICH IS  EXPECTED TO HAVE AN ESTIMATE OF MORE THAN 13  MILLION CORN ACRES.  OF THE NINE LISTED, 3 GAINED ALMOST 6 MILLION  ACRES. COMPARE THAT TO IOWA WHICH IS EXPECTED  TO HAVE A PRODUCTION TOTAL OF ALMOST 24 MILLION  ACRES THIS YEAR.  THANKS, BETSY. DROUGHT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS TAKING A BIG  BITE FROM SPRING WHEAT PRODUCTION. IT DROPPED 402  MILLION BUSHELS. THAT'S A DROP FROM 534 MILLION  BUSHELS LAST YEAR. . ALL-WHEAT PRODUCTION COMES IN AT ONE-POINT- SEVEN BILLION BUSHELS. THAT'S DOWN ABOUT A HALF  BILLION BUSHELS FROM LAST YEAR.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRO FARMER REACTION
NOW TO THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND TABLES - DOMESTIC CARRYOVER IN NEW CROP CORN WAS  TRIMMED SLIGHTLY TO TWO-POINT-TWO BILLION  BUSHELS FROM JULY ESTIMATE. OLD CROP CORN WAS UN-TOUCHED. NEW CROP SOYBEAN ENDINGS STOCKS PUSHED  HIGHER TO 475 MILLION BUSHELS. OLD CROP DIPPED  370 MILLION BUSHELS. THE USDA REPORTS SENDIGN NEGATIVE SIGNALS  ACROSS COMMODITY MARKETS. WE HAVE REACTION.  LET'S START WITH PROFARMER.  <USDA AGUSUST CROP SUPPLY AND DEMAND REPORTS  WERE BEARISH. NUMEBRS FOR THE PRODUCTIONS IDE  CORN BEANS AND HWEAT ALL CAME IN HIGHER THAN  EXPECTED AS DID NEW CROP CARRYOVER  PROJECTISON FOR ALL THREE COMMODITIES THERE, SO  DEFINITELY A BEARISH TONE COMING OUT OF THESE  REPORTS. THE HEADLINESERS OBVIOUSLY WHERE THE  CORN AND SOYBEANS ESTIMATES THERE THE FIRST  SUVEY BASED ESTIMATES AND WHEN WE LOOK AT  THOSE BOTH OF THEM COMING IN HIGHER THAN WHAT  WAS ANTICIPATED AND HTE HISTORY OVER THE PAST 20  EYARS THAT TELLS US ON CORN IT'S ABOUT A 50/50  PROPOSITION, USDA MAY GO UP IT MAY COME DOWN,  BUT ON SOYEBANS THERE'S A 2/3 CHANCE THAT THEY  WILL GO UP FROM WHERE THEY WERE HERE WIHT  THEIR AUGUST ESTIMATE EVEN THOUGH IT CAME IN  HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED AND BAOVE TRENDLINE  LEVELS, WHICH WAS A MAJOR SURPRISE. FOR THE  PROFARMER EDITORS IN CEDAR FALLS IOWA, I'M BRIAN  GRETE>>

CLINTON IN MEXICO
WE'RE LESS THAN A WEEK AWAY FROM U-S OFFICIALS  DIVING INTO TRADE TALKS WITH BOTH MEXICO AND  CANADA.  IT'S A DEAL MORE THAN 20 YEARS OLD. CLINTON GRIFFITHS IS IN MEXICO HEADING INTO THE  NEGOTIATIONS, AND HE SAYS THERE'S A LOT RIDING ON  THE LINE FOR BOTH  U-S AND MEXICO AGRICULTURE  AND NO MATTER THE OUTCOME, IT WILL HAVE A RIPPLE  EFFECT. CLINTON.  0WE'RE ON THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND MEXICO. BORDER  CROSSING WE'RE EVERY DAY JUST LIKE THIS. LOADED. WITH. TWO  HUNDRED AND SEVENTY FIVE THOUSAND BUSHELS OF GRAIN ABOUT 200  TRUCKS TOTAL CROSS INTO MEXICO EVERY DAY FROM THE UNITED STATES.  THOSE TRUCKS THAT LEAVE SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR MEXICO MANY OF  THEM WILL END UP HERE ELIZONDO. IT'S A SMALL FEED MILL IN APODACA  MEXICO JUST OUTSIDE MONTERREY. AND THE OWNER SAYS IT'S NAFTA  THAT ALLOWS HIM TO BE COMPETITIVE IN HIS BUSINESS. SEE WE DON'T  KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON WITH HIM. WE DON'T KNOW HOW IT IS GOING TO  BE ABLE TO ADAPT TO WORKING IF NAFTA IS PHASED OUT IF THEY TELL US  IN JANUARY AND BE ABLE TO IMPORT ANYTHING FROM THE UNITED  STATES. WE WOULD NEVER KNOW JUST THE A FAILED STATE TO TRY TO DO  SOMETHING WE'RE GOING TO TRY AND GO TO SOUTH AMERICA AND TRY TO  BUY SOMETHING FROM SOUTH AMERICA AND BUY SOME GRAIN BUT IT'S  GOING TO HARD FOR US TO COMPETE WITH THE BIG COMPANIES THIS 20000 HEAD FEEDLOT SITS JUST 90 MILES SOUTH OF LAREDO TEXAS.  AND THANKS TO NAFTA. THEY'RE BUYING A LOT OF AMERICAN  PRODUCTS HERE. JUST TAKE THEIR FEED FOR INSTANCE. THEY'RE USING  CORN. DDGS. COTTONSEED THEY'RE ALSO USING TECHNOLOGY AND  EQUIPMENT FROM THE U.S. TO RUN THE FEED MILL AND AMERICAN  GENETICS AND THEIR CATTLE HERD THE ONLY THING THAT I'M AFRAID OF IS  FOR SOME TARIFFS TO BE ADDED AND THAT IS GOING TO HAVE AN EFFECT  ON PRODUCTION COSTS. THE END CONSUMER IS GOING TO BE THE ONE  THAT'S GOING TO BE DAMAGED OR THIS IS GOING TO FEEL IT THE MOST.  BUT I DON'T THINK THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN. 

FARM ECONOMY AND FEDERAL RESERVE
A PROLONGED DOWNTURN IN THE FARM ECONOMY IS  STILL QUITE EVIDENT IN SEVERAL KEY REGIONS OF THE  FEDERAL RESERVE. BUT THERE IS A HINT OF OPTIMISM  AT THE END OF THE SECOND QUARTER. A REPORT FROM THE KANSAS CITY FEDERAL RESERVE  SUGGESTS THAT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN THE FARM  SECTOR MAY BE STABILIZING. . WHILE CREDIT CONDITIONS WEAKENED FURTHER FROM  APRIL TO JUNE, THE PACE HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT. . AND FARMLAND VALUES ALSO TRENDED LOWER. THE K- C FED SAYS THE VALUE OF IRRIGATED CROPLAND  DROPPED SEVEN PERCENT, NON-IRRIGATED IS DOWN  FIVE. AND RANCHLAND IS DOWN FOUR PERCENT FROM A  YEAR AGO. <AGRICULTURAL CREDIT CONDITIONS WEAKENED FURTHER IN THE SECOND  QUARTER, BUT THE PACE OF DETERIORATION HAS SLOWED. ALTHOUGH THE  RATE AT WHICH FARM LOANS ARE BEING REPAID CONTINUED TO  DECREASE, THE CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO WAS NOT AS SHARP AS IN  RECENT YEARS. ONLY 37 PERCENT OF BANKERS IN THE TENTH DISTRICT  REPORTED A DECREASE IN REPAYMENT RATES FROM A YEAR AGO, THE  LOWEST SHARE SINCE MID-2015. FARMLAND VALUES CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER ALONGSIDE THE  REDUCTIONS IN FARM INCOME AND WEAKER CREDIT CONDITIONS, BUT THE  CHANGES HAVE REMAINED MODEST. FOR THE SIXTH CONSECUTIVE  QUARTER, THE VALUE OF CROPLAND AND RANCHLAND IN THE DISTRICT  DECREASED FROM A YEAR AGO. SIMILAR TO RECENT QUARTERS, THE VALUE  OF IRRIGATED CROPLAND, NONIRRIGATED CROPLAND AND RANCHLAND  DECREASED 7 PERCENT, 5 PERCENT AND 4 PERCENT, RESPECTIVELY.> MEANWHILE AT THE CHICAGO FED - WHICH COVERS THE  CORE OF THE CORN BELT - FARMLAND VALUES IN THE  SECOND QUARTER OF 2017 WERE ONE PERCENT  HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO.  . THIS IS THE FIRST YEAR-OVER-YEAR GAIN IN THREE  YEARS. WHILE DISTRICT-WIDE FARMLAND VALUES  CLIMBED, ILLINOIS AND INDIANA EXPERIENCED YEAR- OVER-YEAR DECREASES. . . AND LIKE KANSAS CITY, CREDIT CONDITIONS IN THE  CHICAGO DISTRICT DETERIORATED AT A SLOWER RATE.

CROP COMMENTS
LET'S CHECK SOME CONDITIONS IN THE FIELD. MIKE  HOFFMAN HAS A LOOK IN THIS MORNING'S CROP  COMMENTS.  GOOD MORNING, TYNE.  TODAY'S CROP COMMENT IS FROM LAUREN TURLEY IN  UNION COUNTY, KENTUCKY. LAUREN SAYS SHE IS  CHOPPING SILAGE AND IS ABOUT 20 DAYS AHEAD OF  LAST YEAR SINCE THE DRY WEATHER HAS SET IN.  ACCORDING TO USDA, KENTUCKY IS SEEING A DOUBLE- DIGIT YIELD GAIN.  AND NOW HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS.

TEASE
STILL TO COME WE SHIFT FROM ALL THAT GRAIN NEWS  TO LIVESTOCK. ERODING BASIS COULD ENTICE  FEEDYARDS TO HANG ON TO CATTLE A LITTLE LONGER.  THAT'S ANALYSIS.  AND WE HEAD TO CORN COLLEGE, HEAVY DISEASE  PRESSURE IS OVERCOMING FIELDS THIS YEAR, ARE YOU  TAKING THE RIGHT STEPS TO ADDRESS IT?  PLUS, WHY MOMS ARE DITCHING DAIRY AGAINST  DOCTORS ORDERS. THAT'S AS WE HEAD IN THE  COUNTRY. 

FROM THE FARM
IN AGRIBUSINESS, UNLESS YOU'RE A BEAR, THURSDAY  WASN'T A GOOD DAY IN THE MARKETS, WITH DOUBLE  DIGIT LOSSES. SO WHY DID USDA'S REPORT TRIGGER  SUCH A NEGATIVE REACTION? LET'S HEAD NOW TO THE   FLOOR OF HTE CME.  WE ARE SEEING SOME PRESSURE IN THE GRAINS AND SOME IS PROBABLY AN UNDERESTIMATE. WE'RE SEEING CORN AND SOYBEANS WHEAT ALL TRADED SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TRADING AT SOME OF THE LOWEST LEVELS WE HAVEN'T SEEN SINCE LAST YEAR. BUT ON A TECHNICAL BASIS I THINK WE'RE AT SOME OF THESE LEVELS THAT START TO REPRESENT SOME FAIRLY DECENT VALUE 373 IS WHERE WE CLOSE ON THIS DAY LAST YEAR 374 IS WE HAVEN'T TRADED BELOW THAT FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE SEPTEMBER 375 IS WHAT WE'VE HELD BASICALLY ALL YEAR. SO IF WE CAN STAY ABOVE THIS 370 MARK. I THINK IT OFFERS REALLY GOOD VALUE. HOWEVER ON THE FLIP SIDE TO MANAGE YOUR RISK IF WE DO CLOSE BELOW THAT I THINK WE COULD SEE SOME ACCELERATED SELLING PRESSURE FROM THE FUNDS PRESSES DOWN TOWARDS THE LAST AUGUST LOWS OF 358 TO 364. THAT'S WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK. THAT'S WHAT YOU SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TO THIS HAS BEEN OLIVER SLOUP WITH IITRADER FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME. ​

AGRIBUSINESS
HERE NOW DON CLOSE OF RABOBANK DON AS WE HEAD INTO FALL DO  YOU THINK THAT WE WILL SEE HEAVIER WEIGHTS. I MEAN WE KNOW WITH  THOSE ATTRACTIVE PRICES THAT WE SAW WE SAW WAITES KIND OF DROP  OFF. DO YOU THINK WE CLIMB HIGHER. YOU KNOW EARLIER EARLIER TODAY  I SAW THE WEEKLY SLAUGHTERER DATA COME OUT BOTH STERN HEFER  CARCASSES WERE UP THREE POUNDS OVER. SAME WITH YEAR. A WEEK  AGO. SO YES I DO WONDER WHAT IT WOULD HAVE BEEN CONCERNED  WITH WAS A LOT OF THE APPEAL IN THE AGGRESSIVE MARKETING THAT WE  SAW THROUGHOUT THE SPRING. NOT ONLY WERE WE SEEING EXCEPTIONAL  CLEARANCE OF PRODUCT TO MARKET PLACE BUT CASH PRICE WAS RUNNING  SO FAR OVER FUTURES THAT THE HEDGERS WERE ABLE TO CAPTURE A  PHENOMENAL BASIS GAMES THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT OF THE  MARKET. IF THE BASIS GAINS YOUR WORST OUT OF THE MARKET THAT SHARES THE INSANITY OF THE CATTLE FEEDER FROM CONVERSIONS AND  WHAT IS MY COST AGAIN OPPOSED TO THE PRICE OF A FED STEER. AND  WHEN THAT PRICE BRIDGE AS WIDE AS IT IS TODAY I THINK THAT WILL BE A  CATALYST TO ENCOURAGE HEAVIER WEIGHTS AS WE GET LATE SUMMER  INTO FALL. YEAH. WHAT ABOUT THE MOVEMENT OF FEEDER CATTLE AND  CALVES VERSUS VERSUS A YEAR AGO OR ARE YOU SEEING ANY  DIFFERENCES THERE. WE'RE SEEING A BIG SHIFT IN MOVEMENT OF  CALVES AND YEARLINGS THIS YEAR. I THINK THERE'S TWO BIG DRIVERS.  ONE IS A YEAR AGO YOU KNOW CATTLE FEEDERS WERE IN IN A REALLY  TOUGH POSITION. A LOT OF THEM WERE AT A POINT WHERE THEY HAD TO  BUY FEEDER CATTLE THAT WOULD HAVE THE DAY THEY BOUGHT OR MORE  THEY WERE NOT THERE I'D WONDER WOULD NOT GO WITH. THIS YEAR  WE'VE HAD SIX MONTHS OF VERY GOOD RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDING.  THAT LEAVES THAT CATTLE FEEDER IN A MUCH STRONGER POSITION. HE  WILL PROBABLY USE SOME OF THAT MONEY. HE'S CAPTURED THIS YEAR.  ALL RIGHT. DON CLOSE. THANK YOU SO MUCH. STAY WITH US WE'LL  BE BACK WITH MORE AGDAY AFTER THE BREAK.

WEATHER
WELCOME BACK ON THIS FRIDAY WELL A LITTLE BIRDIE TOLD ME MIKE  YOU HAVE SOME GOOD NEWS. I'M GETTING OLD. I GUESS THAT'S GOOD  NEWS OTHER THAN THAT A GRANDFATHER NOW FIRST TIME. SO IS IT  GRANDFATHER OR GREAT POWER. WHAT'S THE NAME GRANDPA. I THINK  WHATEVER THEY WANT TO CALL ME THAT IS SO TRUE. YES. EMILIA AND  EMILIA CONNIE CONNIE IS MY MOM'S NAME. SO THAT IS EMILIA'S  MIDDLE NAME. AND HEALTHY VERY HEALTHY DOING GREAT. YEAH.  WE'RE WE'RE LOVING EVERY SECOND OF IT OBVIOUSLY. SO HAPPY FOR  YOU CONGRATULATIONS. I'VE JOIN THE CLUB. OF MANY OF YOU. YES.  THAT'S GREAT. ALL RIGHT HERE WE GO. LET'S CHECK OUT THE DROUGHT  MONITOR. YOU CAN SEE THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN  SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. SO LET'S GO BACK FOUR WEEKS OR A MONTH  AND SEE WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE. YOU CAN SEE WE DID NOT HAVE ANY  EXCEPTIONAL AREAS ONE MONTH AGO SO AS WE GO DAY BY DAY WITH  THIS YOU WILL SEE HOW THINGS HAVE ACTUALLY GOTTEN WORSE ACROSS  NORTH DAKOTA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF  EASTERN MONTANA OVER THE PAST FOUR WEEKS AND UNFORTUNATELY I  DON'T SEE THAT IMPROVING A BUNCH. NOW WE SHOWED YOU THE THE  THE GROUNDWATER THE UPPER LEVELS PARTS OF THE GROUND THE ROOT  ZONE MOISTURE THAT WE NOW CALL IT HAS TURNED A LITTLE WET IN THAT  AREA. SO YOU WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT  OVER TIME BUT WE NEED MORE RAIN. IT TAKES AWHILE TO GET RID OF A  DROUGHT. ALL RIGHT. HERE'S THE WEATHER MAP TWO SYSTEMS ONE IS  THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER ONE FROM THE GREAT  LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THIS  SITUATION AND YOU CAN SEE THAT'S THE SAME IDEA OUT WEST THERE'S  DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE SO THAT'S  TAMPING THINGS DOWN IN THE WEST. BUT YOU'LL STILL GET SOME ACTIVITY  IN THE AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY KIND OF IN NEW MEXICO OVER THERE  BETWEEN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE COLD FRONT. YOU CAN  SEE BY TOMORROW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS INTO THE  NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  AGAIN AND THIS IS ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE  YEAR. LITTLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE KIND OF IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE  MAINLY CAUSING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN  PLAINS BY LATER TOMORROW. THERE IS A PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE OVER  THE PAST 24 HOURS ADDING IN THE NEXT 36. YOU CAN SEE HOW REALLY  THE CENTRAL PLAINS ESPECIALLY OKLAHOMA INTO THE SOUTHEAST IS WHO  GETS THE MOST BUT IT'LL BE SPOTTY ACTIVITY FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK  INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ON THE  PLEASANT SIDE LOTS OF 70S NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES  80S FARTHER SOUTH IF YOU 90S MOSTLY 90S IN TEXAS IN THE DESERT  SOUTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING 50S AND 60S IN THE  PLAINS BEHIND THAT COLD FRONT AND HIGHS TOMORROW KIND OF MORE OF  THE SAME. THESE ARE VERY COMFORTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE  NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY AND TAKE A LOOK AT THE JET  STREAM YOU CAN SEE HOW WE HAVE THAT TROUGH THERE BUT WATCH  WHAT HAPPENS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. WE CAN SEE THIS RIDGE  COME IN AND THEN WE GO ZONAL AND THAT MEANS A LITTLE BIT OF A  WARM UP FARTHER EAST THAN WE'VE SEEN. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE  COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL  FOR TUCSON ARIZONA HOT AGAIN AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN  SPOTS HIGH OF 100 IN ONE TAMO IOWA PARTLY SUNNY. COMFORTABLY  ARM HIGH OF 83. AND FINALLY HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA. CLOUDS AND  HUMID THUNDERSTORM IN MANY AREAS. HIGH OF 86. 0

TEASE
STILL TO COME, GETTING THE MATH RIGHT ON  APPLYING HERBICIDES AND PESTICIDES. WE HEAD TO  THE FIELD WITH FARM JOURNAL COLLEGE.  PLUS, SOME MOMS ARE BANNING DAIRY FROM THEIR  KIDS' DIET. BUT THAT MATH ISN'T ADDING UP FOR  EXPERTS. WE'LL TELL YOU WHY AS WE HEAD IN THE  COUNTRY. 

FARM JOURNAL COLLEGE TV
WELCOME BACK, CLINTON IS PULLING DOUBLE-DUTY  THIS WEEK. HE TAKES US TO THE FIELD FOR THIS  WEEK'S FARM JOURNAL COLLEGE WHERE WE LOOK AT  THE MATH BEHIND PESTICIDE AND HERBICIDE  APPLICATIONS. CLINTON  WE'RE JOINED BY FRED WHITFORD HE'S A PESTICIDE SPECIALIST HERE AT  PURDUE UNIVERSITY. FRED LET'S WE'RE GETTING READY TO SPRAY A FIELD  HERE. LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT MAKING SURE WE HAVE THE RIGHT  AMOUNT OF PESTICIDE OR HERBICIDE OR WHATEVER WE'RE DOING TO FIT  THE TANK SIZE THAT YOU KNOW WE HAPPEN TO BE IN HERE IN PLOTS IF  YOU'RE A FARMER OR YOU'VE GOT ALL THIS MONEY ALREADY INVESTED IN  FERTILIZER YOU'VE GOT INVESTED IN SEED THIS IS YOUR LIVELIHOOD AND  SO OBVIOUSLY WE GOT WEEDS INSECTS DISEASES THAT WANT TO TAKE  AWAY A LITTLE MORE YIELD. AND SO WE RELY ON THESE PRODUCTS TO BE  ABLE TO CONTROL. I MEAN SURE AND A LOT OF MONEY TO GET A LOT OF  MONEY BACK. ON THE OTHER END. BUT YOU KNOW SOMETIMES WE  FORGET THE SIMPLE THINGS IN LIFE THAT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN THIS  HAGIE SPRAYER. WE'VE GOT A THOUSAND GALLONS WORTH OF WATER ON  TWO DIFFERENT TANKS BUT A THOUSAND GALLONS. OK. SO I'LL ASK YOU IF  WE WANT TO PUT ON THAT SAYING THESE PLOTS HERE WE'RE GOING TO DO  ABOUT 20 ACRES 20 GALLONS OF WATER PER ACRE. OK. HOW MANY.  HOW MANY ACRES OF MY TANK DO. THEY'LL DO ABOUT 50 TO ABOUT 50  ACRES. TIMES FIVE OUNCES PER ACRE BUT ONE LABEL IS 250 OUNCES OR  50 POUNDS. I CAN SIT RIGHT HERE AND NOT HAVE TO DO ANYTHING AND  TELL YOU WHAT THAT GOES INTO IT. BUT WHAT HAPPENS IF THAT TANK IS  NOT 1000 GALLONS WORTH OF WATER. WELL THEN YOU'VE GOT A PROBLEM  RIGHT. YES BECAUSE ALL OF MY MIXED RATES WENT THAT THE TWO  PROBLEMS WE GOT IS IF WE HAD ONE THAT WAS SAID IT WAS A 900  GALLON THAT WAS ACTUALLY 11 HUNDRED GALLONS. SO HE MIXED UP  ENOUGH CHEMICAL FOR 90 AND SPREAD IT OVER OVER A LARGER AMOUNT.  HE DILUTED HIS PRODUCT. RIGHT WHICH IS A PROBLEM WHICH IS A BIG  PROBLEM BECAUSE NOW I DON'T I DON'T GET CONTROL OF ESPECIALLY ON  THESE INVASIVE WEEDS AND THESE INSECTS THAT WE'RE FIGHTING 

TEASE
THANKS, CLINTON. STILL TO COME, DOING AWAY WITH  DAIRY IS AN INCREASING FAD. BUT WHY THIS POPULAR  TREND IS DISCOUNTING MEDICAL ADVICE. THAT'S WHEN  WE RETURN AND HEAD IN THE COUNTRY. 

IN THE COUNTRY
MORE MOMS ARE GROWING LESS KEEN ON MILK. BUT DITCHING DAIRY MAY NOT BE WHAT THE DOCTOR IS  ORDERING.  A NEW SURVEY SHOWSTHE NATIONAL OSTEOPOROSIS FOUNDATION FINDING 6  IN 10 MOMS HAVE EITHER TRIED OR ARE RESTRICTING  DAIRY IN THEIR CHILDREN'S DIET. SOME ARE EVENING BANNING THEIR KIDS FROM  DRINKING MILK. MANY CELEBRITY WEBSITES AND DIET BOOKS SHOW  DITCHING DAIRY IS A GOOD THING, HOWEVER, EXPERTS SAY GOING DAIRY-FREE CAN HAVE  SIGNIFICANT DOWNFALLS, ESPECIALLY IN KIDS AND  YOUNG ADULTS.  DAIRY IS THE MAIN FOOD SOURCE OF THREE OF THE  FOUR NUTRIENTS IN THE DIETARY GUIDELINES FOR  AMERICANS, INCLUDING POTASSIUM, CALCIUM AND  VITAMIN D.  THE GUIDELIENS SUGGEST TWO TO THREE YEARS OLD  DRINK TWO CUPS OF MILK. AND 9 YEAR OLDS AND UP  SHOULD DRINK 3 CUPS A DAY. 

CLOSE
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE  GLAD YOU TUNED IN.  FOR ALL OF U S AT AGDAY, I'M TYNE MORGAN, HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND INF ARM COUNTRY. 

 

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