Soybeans Could Drive Prices for Next Six Months

October 28, 2013 10:00 AM
Soybeans Could Drive Prices for Next Six Months

Depending on how the remainder of the harvest shapes up, it’s possible soybeans could control market prices for the next six months. That’s according to Roach Ag. Marketing’s Andy Shissler on the U.S. Farm Report Market Roundtable. He’s heard plenty of reports of 40-bushel beans from throughout the U.S.

"You may have a friendly situation in beans and not a friendly situation in corn," Shissler says. "We’ve had that before. Beans could be the driver in price for the next six months very easily depending on how this one bushel of yield goes either way. We’ll have to see."

Meanwhile, corn remains on track for strong yields based on anecdotes coming from the field, says Gregg Hunt, Archer Financial Services. USDA raised the corn crop rating by 5% last week, another indicator of crop healthy, Shissler adds.

"I think the market right now is about 160 yield for corn, that would be the low end," Hunt says. "I think the probabilities of that are probably about 90%. I think you’ve got a shot of around a 165 yield with a 50:50 probability there. That would only indicate that we were up about 6.5% from the last report even on the high end."

A recent client survey by Roach Ag. Marketing indicated a slightly higher average yield of 171 bushels per acre, though it’s unclear how that will correlate with USDA figures set to be released Nov. 8.

"This number that Gregg’s talking about toward 162, that’s kind of out there on the street and that’s spooking people," Shissler explains. "I think they’re probably going to stick us pretty hard on the November crop report because of it. We’ve heard crazy yields of some farms going 240, 250 bushels. I can find some bad yields, but those are mainly in Iowa and those places. Illinois is really strong on yield this year."

Click the play button below to watch Part 1 of the U.S. Farm Report Market Roundtable:

Click the play button below to watch Part 2 of the U.S. Farm Report Market Roundtable:

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