RICE: Higher-than-previously expected March 1 U.S. rice stocks, as reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on March 28, results in a 5.0- million-cwt reduction in all rice 2012/13 domestic and residual use, and a commensurate increase in ending stocks. No changes are made on the 2012/13 supply side or to projected exports. Long-grain 2012/13 domestic and residual use is lowered 4.0 million, and medium- and short-grain domestic use is lowered 1.0 million. The all rice 2012/13 export projection is unchanged at 108.0 million cwt.
NASS estimated March 1 all rice rough stocks at 104.3 million cwt and milled rice stocks at 6.7 million cwt (9.5 million on a rough-equivalent basis). The March 1 all rice stocks estimate on a rough-equivalent basis at 113.8 million cwt is up 0.8 percent from a year earlier, and up 0.9 percent from the preceding 5-year average.
The decrease in 2012/13 domestic and residual use led to a 5.0 million cwt or 17 percent increase in all rice ending stocks to 34.1 million cwt. Long-grain ending stocks are raised 4.0 million cwt to 20.4 million, and medium- and short-grain stocks increased 1.0 million to 11.5 million.
The projected U.S. average milling yield for 2012/13 is reduced to 70 percent, down 0.25 percentage points from last month. The change is based on data supplied by the Rice Millers’ Association of the USA Rice Federation for August through January and on expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
The midpoint of the 2012/13 long-grain, medium- and short-grain, and all rice season-average prices are unchanged at $14.50 per cwt, $15.90 per cwt, and $14.90 per cwt, respectively.
World rice production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 467.6 million tons, still a record, largely due to lower projections for Colombia, Pakistan, and Thailand, which are partially offset by increased projections for Ecuador, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Global consumption is reduced 0.9 million tons, largely due to reductions for Burma, Brazil, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and the United States. Trade projections for 2012/13 are little changed from a month ago. Global 2012/13 ending stocks at 103.8 million tons are up 0.5 million from last month, but down 1.7 million from the prior year.
Coverage, Analysis of the April 10 USDA Reports
See all of the data, coverage and analysis of the WASDE and Crop Production reports.