EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 1/4/13
Jan 04, 2013
Grains and oilseeds closed lower again and lower on the week. March wheat has had negative weekly closes for 6 weeks in a row. Soybeans continued their downtrend from this week’s Chinese cancellations. Corn followed wheat lower on poor demand. We have no major changes to the current recommendations.
Export sales were poor for corn and contributed to the lower markets. Today was the first time closing below the 200 day moving average since June 22nd! Corn is finally starting to fill the gap made over the 4th of July. Next support can be found at the bottom of the gap at $6.75 ¼.
Front Month Corn (Gap Fill)
Informa released their estimates for 2012 corn and soybean production which were still much higher than the current USDA estimates. They have corn production pegged at 10.8 billion which is up from their previous estimate of 10.738 billion and the USDA currently at 10.725. Informa has soybean production at 3.04 billion bushels compared to 2.925 billion last time and the USDA estimate of 2.971. These numbers are quite bearish but we will see where the rest of the estimates come in as they are available next week when Dow Jones and Reuters report their analyst polls.
The USDA Grain Stocks report will be released at 11:00 am Friday, January 11th. The normal time for USDA reports has been 7:30am and this is the first report with the time change.
Weekly export sales data:
Corn 49,100 MTs Expected Range: 100,000 – 200,000 MTs
Soybeans 496,300 MTs Expected Range: 200,000 – 400,000 MTs
Wheat 402,500 MTs Expected Range: 250,000 – 500,000 MTs
Soymeal 53,800 MTs Expected Range: 125,000 – 250,000 MTs
Soyoil 31,300 MTs Expected Range: 0 – 20,000 MTs
Favorable weather continues for South America and could make it difficult for soybeans to stay supported. Monday is expected to be the start of the rebalancing of the funds. We expect a rather choppy week for price action as non-index-fund traders also reposition for the January reports. With such large price declines in corn and soybeans recently we could see some short covering ahead of Friday Jan 11th. These opportunities may be a great time to get your 2013 hedges caught up. We have a new recommendation for 2013 corn and 2013 soybeans. For a free two week trial of our services including hedge recommendations, please click on the sign-up link below. Have a great weekend!
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