Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 23, 2017.
Grain markets are quiet as harvest progress weighs on a rally. The US stock market setting record highs 4 out of 5 days last week and is suggesting a new high to start this week is turning all investor’s attention to that sector for now. The strong US Dollar is also creating headwinds for any rallies in grains.
Allendale’s October Ag Leaders Webinar is scheduled for tomorrow evening.
La Nina is looking more and more likely in the coming months. How is this impacting the agriculture markets? What should we expect going forward? We'll discuss this and so much more with CME Group's Erik Norland, October 24th at 8:00 PM CDT. Register here to join us or to have the recording sent to you.
Grain Traders are looking for corn harvest this afternoon to be 40% completed compared to 28% last week and 62% average. Soybean harvest is expected to be 65% done versus 49% last week and 76% average.
World Weather Inc. says, “Brazil’s bottom line remains similar to that of Friday with improving soil moisture for many center west and center south crop areas during the next two weeks. Some rain may also reach into northeastern parts of the nation, but mostly this weekend and next week. The interior south will be too wet most of this week with frequent bouts of rain delaying spring planting of many crops and leaving some pressure on unharvested winter wheat.” And “Argentina’s bottom line remains quite favorable for most of the nation’s spring crops and fieldwork.”
AgRural puts Brazil’s soybean planting at 20% complete versus 29% last year and 19% average.
CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money funds adding 7,747 shorts to make them net short 170,684 contracts in corn. They increased their net short position in wheat by 9,963 contracts and were net buyers in soybeans of 37,176 contract raising their net long position to 68,168 contracts.
US producing oil rigs dropped by 7 to 736 last week.
Funds were active sellers on Friday as they were estimated to have been net sellers of 11,000 corn contracts, 8,000 soybeans, 3,500 wheat contracts.
Cattle-On-Feed report for October was released on Friday afternoon at 2:00 pm. Reuters survey of analysts showed average estimates for Cattle-On-Feed October 1, 2017 is 104.6% (actual 105.4%), Placements during September 108.0% (actual 113.5%), and Marketing in September 102.6% (actual 102.9%).
Trade will look at this report as being a bit bearish as On-Feed number is a 4-year high and Placements are at a 5 Year high. Traders may be making some adjustments in spreads between nearby and deferred as cash traded higher last week.
December cattle futures closed .52 lower for the week on Friday with key support crossing at 114.52 and resistance 117.50.
Cash hog prices remain strong with packer margins well in the black.
December hogs closed near session highs with resistance the contract high of 65.67. First level of support crosses at 63.80.
Dressed beef values were higher with choice up .29 and select up .38. The CME Feeder Index is 154.79. Pork cutout value is up 1.18.
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