Agfax

Can USDA's New Great American Cotton Plan Revive Demand?

Fri, 29 May 2026 16:44:23 GMT

The Trump Administration is rolling out what it calls a major reset for the U.S. cotton industry, unveiling the “ Great American Cotton Plan, ” a USDA initiative designed to boost demand for American-grown cotton, strengthen domestic textile manufacturing and make U.S. cotton more competitive globally.

Announced Thursday by U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins in Arizona, the plan comes as cotton producers face a fifth straight year of negative returns amid rising production costs, synthetic fiber competition and shifting export markets.

While the Rollins says the plan is aimed at rebuilding the U.S. cotton industry, it includes several key points, including:

Makes U.S. cotton cheaper and more attractive for apparel brands to use — even if manufacturing happens overseas
Supports the bipartisan Buying American Cotton Act to incentivize brands to source American-grown cotton
Encourages mills and manufacturers to build more U.S.-based textile supply chains
Expands the “Plant Not Plastic” campaign promoting natural fibers over synthetic materials
Increases textile mill payments from 3 cents to 5 cents per pound of cotton processed
Prioritizes cotton processors and textile manufacturers for USDA loan programs
Expands export opportunities for U.S. cotton through new trade commitments
Raises cotton marketing loan rates and increases the seed cotton reference price for farm programs
Expands crop insurance tools and research efforts to protect cotton growers

“This change starts today,” Rollins said in announcing the initiative, which ties together trade policy, manufacturing incentives and consumer marketing aimed at increasing cotton use both domestically and abroad.

The Great American Cotton Plan is about one thing: Putting American cotton first again.

Real “_____” wear cotton. 👖🌱

Americans. Cowboys. Farmers. Families. MAHA. Because cotton is real, natural, American-grown, and made by U.S. farmers.

Here’s the plan 👇

✅ Promote… pic.twitter.com/PkzvY9nHBb
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) May 28, 2026

“The Trump Administration is committed to ensuring American cotton once again becomes the fiber of choice with the Great American Cotton Plan, a bold effort to restore profitability for cotton producers, strengthen rural economies, rebuild domestic textile manufacturing, and bring American cotton back into the products families use every day.”

Rollins made a strong tie to the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement, saying supporting natural fibers like cotton aligns with the administration’s focus.

Yes: plant, not plastic. Proud to support @USDA, @SecRollins, and the Great American Cotton Plan. American-grown cotton supports our farmers, strengthens rural communities, fuels U.S. manufacturing, and gives families a natural alternative to synthetic, plastic-based materials.… https://t.co/tuFsc6fLDb
— Secretary Kennedy (@SecKennedy) May 28, 2026

For the National Cotton Council, the announcement represents more than short-term assistance. Robbie Minnich, vice president of Washington and operations for the National Cotton Council, says the broader goal is to help the cotton industry regain long-term financial stability instead of relying solely on farm safety net programs.

“This is a plan that really a lot of us in the industry have been working on with USDA,” Minnich says. “Cotton farmers are in their fifth year of negative net returns. How do we address that and what can be done? The farm bill programs are super important as a safety net ... but more holistically, how do we get the industry back on good footing so we’re not as reliant on those programs?”

Making U.S. Cotton More Competitive

It’s no secret the cotton industry has been in peril the past five years, largely due to a dramatic cut in demand. Cotton prices have improved over the past two months, but the longer-term concerns about cotton are tied to demand.

Just last year, cotton farmers were talking about not just losing money, but losing the farm . And to start the year, things looked even more bleak with the possibility of more farmers forced to exit the business this year. The main reason? Demand for synthetic fibers had overtaken demand for cotton.

But a central goal of the plan announced this week is to make American cotton more attractive and affordable for textile brands, even if final products are manufactured overseas. USDA officials say the strategy is designed to lower costs for mills using U.S. cotton while rewarding companies that can trace and verify American-grown fiber in their supply chains.

One key piece is continued support for the bipartisan Buying American Cotton Act , legislation intended to create tax incentives for companies using U.S. cotton in textile products. Industry supporters say the measure could encourage apparel brands to source more American cotton while giving textile mills a financial reason to expand U.S.-based supply chains.

Minnich calls the Buying American Cotton Act, often referred to as BACA, the industry’s top priority.

“At the end of the day, we’ve got to build demand,” he says. “The Buying American Cotton Act can do that. It will do that.”

The National Cotton Council thanks @RepCiscomani for hosting @SecRollins and @SBA_Kelly for today’s roundtable discussion and announcement of The Great American Cotton Plan. pic.twitter.com/WCxnMN9N3h
— NatlCottonCouncil (@NCottonCouncil) May 28, 2026

He says the legislation could become a “true game changer” if brands begin requiring U.S. cotton in sourcing decisions for large-scale apparel production.

“When they make their supply decision and say, ‘I want that million pair of cotton khaki pants, and you have to make it with U.S. cotton,’ I think that’s going to be a true game changer for our industry,” Minnich says.

The plan also increases payments through the Economic Adjustment Assistance for Textile Mills program from 3 cents to 5 cents per pound of cotton processed, a move aimed at improving profitability for domestic mills and processors.

At the same time, USDA says cotton processors and textile manufacturers will receive priority consideration through Rural Development’s Business and Industry Guaranteed Loan Program to help expand domestic production capacity.

Rebuilding Domestic Manufacturing

The announcement underscores growing concern over the decline of the U.S. textile industry.

According to USDA, the number of cotton gins in the United States has fallen from 2,254 in 1980 to just 446 today, while domestic textile manufacturing capacity has steadily shrunk over the last two decades.

The administration argues rebuilding more of the supply chain domestically could help stabilize demand for cotton producers while supporting rural jobs tied to processing, manufacturing and transportation. USDA estimates every $1 generated at the cotton farm gate creates roughly $15 in economic activity across related industries.

The Great American Cotton Plan puts farmers first. 🚜🇺🇸

Through the Working Families Tax Cuts Act and targeted policy wins, the Trump Administration is reviving the U.S. cotton sector, supporting rural communities and lowering costs on everyday essentials.

Here’s how we're… pic.twitter.com/vHuO65JDjx
— Dept. of Agriculture (@USDA) May 28, 2026

Minnich says the administration’s focus on domestic textile production also has national security implications.

“When you think about America 250 and everything our country’s been through, our men and women in uniform, we’ve got to have the ability to make their uniforms,” he says. “We don’t want to be relying on another country for that.”

Positioning Cotton Against Synthetic Fibers

Another major theme of the initiative is promoting cotton as a natural alternative to synthetic fibers.

USDA and HHS are expanding the administration’s “Plant Not Plastic” campaign, which encourages consumers to choose natural fibers over petroleum-based synthetic materials such as polyester.

The campaign originated with the National Cotton Council and has become a growing part of the industry’s messaging strategy.

Minnich says consumer awareness around synthetic fibers and microplastics remains low, despite growing research into microfiber pollution.

“A lot of people just don’t realize,” he says. “If it’s not natural fibers, if it’s not cotton, and it’s synthetic plastic, well, I’m basically feeding my kid plastic.”

The administration says the effort aligns with broader “Make America Healthy Again” priorities, citing concerns about microplastics and synthetic materials in consumer products.

Today, USDA estimates nearly 70% of the world’s textile fibers are synthetic.

Officials say promoting cotton’s biodegradability, breathability and moisture absorption could help drive additional consumer demand for natural fibers.

Minnich says the administration had already begun emphasizing microplastics and synthetic fibers before the formal cotton plan announcement, pointing to EPA and HHS efforts examining the impacts of synthetic materials.

“I do think it’s more of a concerted effort to make sure that we’re promoting natural fibers,” he says.

Trade and Export Expansion

The plan also includes efforts to strengthen export opportunities for U.S. cotton after the United States lost its position as the world’s top cotton exporter to Brazil in 2023.

USDA says recent trade commitments secured with Indonesia and Bangladesh are expected to support additional purchases of U.S. cotton and textile production using American fiber.

Cotton Council International also participated in a USDA Agribusiness Trade Mission to Indonesia earlier this year for the first time.

The administration says those efforts will complement existing export promotion programs, including the Market Access Program and COTTON USA licensing initiatives.

Support for Growers

Beyond demand-building efforts, USDA says the plan includes several provisions intended to improve grower profitability and risk protection.

Those include higher marketing loan rates for cotton, expanded insurance access through the Supplemental Coverage Option program and a 14% increase in the seed cotton reference price for ARC and PLC programs beginning in fall 2026.

Minnich says many of those policy improvements were included in last year’s Working Families Tax Cut Act, but producers are still waiting to see some of those changes fully implemented.

“As producers see that base update, as they see the marketing loan changes and the benefits to that, as the ARC and PLC payments come out in October, I think that’s when they really start to go, ‘All right, wow, this is making a difference to my operation,’” he says.

USDA estimates cotton producers could lose approximately $2.6 billion across 9 million planted acres during the upcoming crop year, highlighting the financial pressure facing the industry.

For growers, the broader hope behind the Great American Cotton Plan is that stronger domestic demand, expanded export opportunities and more integrated supply chains could eventually help restore profitability across the cotton sector.

Still, Minnich says the next major step will be congressional action on the Buying American Cotton Act.

The legislation currently has bipartisan support in Congress, with more co-sponsors continuing to sign on.

“We just got to add more,” Minnich says. “Whether you’re a cotton person or a person that cares about microplastics and the environment and what you and your children wear, call your member of Congress and encourage them to support it.”

Can the Plan Save the U.S. Cotton Industry?

After five consecutive years of negative returns, many in the cotton industry say the stakes are high.

Minnich says the long-term success of the Great American Cotton Plan will ultimately depend on whether Congress passes the Buying American Cotton Act and whether brands begin making sourcing decisions around verified U.S. cotton.

“If we can implement it, and part of that overall goal being getting BACA passed through Congress and signed into law by the president, and starting to see those brands and retailers whenever they make their supply decision say, ‘I want that million pair of cotton khaki pants, and you have to make it with U.S. cotton,’ I think that’s going to be a true game changer for our industry,” he says.

Corn, Soybeans, Cotton Rally on China Tariff Cut Talk, Amid Oil Gyrations on Possible Cease Fire

Thu, 28 May 2026 21:33:30 GMT

Corn, soybeans and cotton rallied, with wheat and livestock lower Thursday.

Corn, Soybeans and Cotton Rally Early with Crude Oil
The row crop and cotton markets saw some early support Thursday from a rally in crude oil as doubts about the peace deal with Iran came into question on news of additional attacks.

However, President Trump declared a 60-day ceasefire deal had been reached which sent crude oil breaking $4, only to rebound on skepticism about the agreement.

Darren Frye, CEO of Water Street Solutions, says corn and soybeans held their ground as well not believing the ceasefire was real.

China to Lower Import Tariffs on Grains?
He thinks the row crop markets were also trading unconfirmed rumors that China was lowering its tariffs on imports of U.S. grains and oilseeds, possibly the first indication of their commitment to buy U.S. products.

“We’re looking for some opportunities with China. I think a lot of people know that that deal that was struck at the summit when we got more understanding around it a week and a half ago, we ended up being more positive about business with China. They are reducing their import
taxes, that’s good,” he explains.

If China buys and crude oil doesn’t break the corn market is undervalued, according to Frye, and that is without a weather problem.

He thinks China will buy corn and maybe even wheat and more beans. “We know their corn crop, they’re feeding some wheat, and they were using wheat in place of corn. Now they’ve got some issues with wheat. They were using it out of reserves, and I think they are going to buy corn, wheat, and even maybe some more soybeans.”

If China buys $17 billion of ag goods on top of the 25 MMT of soybeans the next three years that could also include meat and milo.

“Just the fact that that trade deal got done like that and there was positive news coming out of it I think that has given the market optimism,” he adds.

When Does the Market Need Proof of Sales?
How long will the grain markets hold a premium waiting for China business to surface?

Frye says, “Well, I think that’s really hard to say. I mean, the seasonal turns down in early June, so we got another week, week and a half, right? But just because the seasonal turns down, we don’t always have to follow seasonals, but usually you do, right? So we got to probably see some optimism come in in that June 8th timeframe. If weather is good, we either need to see crude spiking higher or something with China, or I think we’re going to start to drift lower with the seasonal until we get new information.”

Inflationary Buying?
Inflation data out Thursday morning through the PCE index showed an uptick in inflation of .5% for the month and 3.8% year over year.

The crude oil market is likely to take a while to normalize even with the Strait of Hormuz open and that may mean sticky inflation for a while.

Is the fear of inflation also a motivation for fund buying in row crops and cotton on Thursday?

“Yeah i think that’s why they have been buying i think you look at the inflation side it’s an inflation trade. Inflation is alive and well whether you see it directly in the CPI, PPI or PCE number it is moving up. And the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is going to have to decide, along with the board, the whole Fed chair and his board of governors, are going to have to decide, hey, do we have to raise interest rates, leave them the same, lower them?”

Frye does not see any rate cuts ahead but instead steady or even rising interest rates to curb inflation.

“And you’re going to start seeing it every month as we get new numbers, in my opinion. Energy is part of that. And I think we’re going to continue to see that escalate and rise,” he adds.

Grains Find Technical Support
The corn market had a poor technical close on Wednesday with July below the 200-day moving average and December also broke support.

Today the market negated that he says. “I like where the market closed. I like how it turned around. The only market I’m a little concerned about is wheat. It’s gotten a little bit deeper on this correction, but hey, we’re in uptrends in wheat, uptrends in corn, uptrends in beans, uptrends in bean oil, obviously, and meal also turning up here over the last two to three weeks.”

So he thinks the markets will move higher.

Wheat Story Over...For Now
The one market he is concerned about is wheat as the market saw historically low crop ratings on Tuesday and failed to recover.

He doesn’t think the story is over in the Western Plains, but right now it is old news.

“I think we got poor demand and we probably priced in all the supply shortages. So I’m not sure how we get wheat turned around. Maybe it’s more of an oil issue or a corn issue. But wheat is probably the one I’m most concerned about holding right here and basing and then turning for higher.”

Wheat a 2027 Story
He thinks there will be a cut in U.S. and global wheat acres with Australia and some of countries already projecting lower production due to higher fuel and fertilizer prices.

“Yeah, it’s affecting some countries now. We’ve seen it affect Ukraine. We know Australia, maybe Canada as well. But I think it’s really a 27 story,” he adds.

Countries that don’t have the means will not be able to buy as much fertilizer.

“I do think it’s an issue for places like Brazil. Southern Brazil might be a little different than northern Brazil where Safrinha is. Those soils are close to the equator. They’re more baked out, lower organic matter, lower CECs. And because of that they need more fertilizer. They need more water. And I think it could be a real issue in 27 for their bean crop, for their Safrinha corn crop.”

He says Ukraine, Argentina, the United States, which are breadbaskets, have deeper, richer soils. “We can mineralize more nutrients. Can we do it without nitrogen? Absolutely not. But we probably will get the nitrogen we need as long as we want to pay the price that they’re charging.”

Cotton Bottoming?
Cotton was higher on the China tariff news but also saw a technical correction after getting oversold.

Frye says the market took out weather premium with rains in West Texas but he thinks the market is bottoming.

“I think chart wise, it looks good. I want to see the market base there and turn from there. But obviously, you know, cotton just took off like a racehorse and extended and extended and extended. So you’re going to get a correction. And then, of course, the rain andthe forecast rain in West Texas helped to do that. I don’t think it’s going to be in the end as helpful as people think. But for the next two to three weeks, it certainly could. I think it makes cotton have to prove its willingness to go higher. I do think it will. I think we got another new high to make here over the next month or so, but only time will tell. But I like the chart right here for higher,” he adds.

Cattle Market Can’t Extend Rally
Cattle futures ended lower on Thursday unable to extend the rally.

Frye says lower boxed beef values were part of the story plus the funds sold on strength.

“But man, people are nervous about the cattle market, you know, supply and shortages and consumer. I mean, consumers still buy in. We don’t have the numbers. We don’t have the borders open. How can this thing go lower? But then, you know, it breaks and people are nervous being long without being hedged. People are nervous being hedged. And I think when you get this type of volatility in people’s emotions over a market like this, you get a choppy trade, you get volatility.”

He says cash bids of $255 5o $256 were being passed, which could mean higher cash.

“If we see a good cash market tomorrow, you could finish the week pretty strong here.”

Fort Morgan Fails to Reach an Agreement
The fund traders may have also been trading the headline that the workers at Cargill’s Fort Morgan, CO facility did not reach an agreement.

He says, “You know, the market, when you’re this high and this sensitive to headline news, and we have a lot of headline news with this president and just everything going on, you know, he puts out posts about trying to get beef prices down and that affects the market or closing of a plant or negotiations didn’t go well or anything.”

War Positive Cattle
But he thinks the cattle market will have a hard time breaking until the war is finally over.

“War is bullish cattle. I just think breaks are still for buy-in. I still think you can go higher. But at any time, that could change. We could top. I mean, we’re in rarefied air up here, but the cattle market still looks like it has ups in it to me.”

Hogs Also Fail
The nearby lean hog futures also failed to extend Wednesday’s gains.

So what will it take to finally bottom the market?

He says, “Well, I was bullish hogs. I really thought four weeks ago, three weeks ago, two weeks ago into the seasonal that we would go up, but we haven’t done that. And now Memorial Day is past us. So we broke critical support. you know, thinking that we got to go lower, not higher right now. But hey, they’re oversold. They look like they’re cheap and some of the fundamentals have been supportive. But for whatever reason, the market just doesn’t want to rally.”

Grains Slide Further After China Summit: Is the Long Term Uptrend Still Intact?

Fri, 15 May 2026 21:25:56 GMT

Grain and cotton markets continued lower on Friday with cattle higher.

Grains and Cotton Slide Further After China Summit
Grain and cotton markets saw follow through selling and fund liquidation for a second day.

Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says the market was removing China premium after the disappointing summit as the market wanted more details on ag purchases.

“I just think the concept here was that most people believed, including myself to some extent, that we were going to have some tangible,
concrete evidence of increased purchases of other ag products whether it’s corn, whether it’s cotton and such forth. We just felt that for him to go out there and come back empty-handed was not a likely scenario and he came back the way it looks pretty empty-handed without anything
tangible anything concrete,” he explains.

Market Wants Proof
Despite USTR Jamieson Greer stating that China would commit to double digit billions of dollars of agricultural goods for the next three years the market discounted it.

Hackett says the market now wants proof of sales.

“It needs proof. It needs to know how much of which markets. When are those purchases going to start in earnest? Is it going to be a quarterly thing? Is it going to be just an annual thing? Can they do it whenever they want? So much of that has to do with what’s the appropriate pricing
discovery mechanism for today based upon the nature of these purchases.”

He points out that during the Phase One there were exact quantities.

“And that gave the market clarity on how to handle the supply demand equation in each of those markets. We’re left guessing and guessing isn’t going to bring confidence into our markets to bid them up from where they were prior to this meeting.”

How Much China Premium Left to Remove?
So the markets have been extracting China premium, especially cotton and soybeans and there was way more premium than people even thought.

Many observers thought the recent run up in grain and cotton markets was tied to weather and war or geopolitical premium, not trade premium.

“And given the way things. have played out the last couple of days it’s becoming clear that a lot of that late rally we saw leading into this meeting was more about the trade premium than anything else and I think the market got surprised in misdiagnosing what the premium was coming from and hence you know the big knockdown and the big surprise,” he says.

How Much Lower Will Grain Prices Fall?
So how much more fund selling will those market see and how low could grain prices fall?

He says, “Maybe we have another day or two, but I think most of the heavy selling is behind us. I say that because it’s so early in the growing season. I think the market, in order to get the funds to liquidate more, will want to see that we’re going to have a good growing season.”

Funds Stay Long Through Early Growing Season
He says it’s still too early for the speculator to give up on their long positions and the weather.

“In fact just if you look at cotton today it was kind of hard down lock limit through most of the day but then did come off limit here as we approach the end of trading and so that says to me that we might have gotten most of those short-term aggressive traders out of the market and we might at least stabilize next week,” he adds.

Chart Damage
Still cotton, soybean oil, corn and soybeans posted lower weekly closes and reversed from new highs early in the week and scored reversals.

So, how much technical damage was done?

“It’s a strong reversal but if you look at the up trends that we that began at the beginning of the year we’re still holding those up trends even after today but barely meaning we’re at a point where if we’re going to maintain any technical. credibility, we need to dig our heels in here and at least abide by the upward trend line,” he explains.

So it was a warning sign but he thinks as long as the uptrends hold it will prevent any additional technical selling.

Iran War Not Over
Plus, he says the Iran war is not over and energy prices are still going up, even though the grain futures ignored it on Friday.

“There’s too many uncertainties that’s going to want to keep the speculators holding some ground here,” he states.

That inflationary concerns are not going to go away. So at some point is that going to come back to be supportive for grains and cotton?

Hackett says, “Absolutely. I don’t see that this Iran situation, anything has really changed. The fertilizer situation is definitely not changed. The further we get on into the year, the more this fertilizer situation, especially in places like India and Brazil, where they really don’t have to import so much of this fertilizer, are going to start to show themselves into needing higher prices to effectuate the outcomes that we need. And so that’s a good long-term supportive mechanism.”

Near Term Weather More Favorable
Near term weather is looking for favorable with some rains in dry areas of the Western Corn Belt and Southern Plains.

“Good rains in Texas, the deep South, the Southeast areas that haven’t had a drop of rain in months. No doubt that the weather in the next couple of weeks is going to be quite productive. Doesn’t mean it ends the drought scenario there, but it takes the pressure off. It allows some planting to accelerate where they haven’t been able to plant because it’s been too dry,” he says.

So that is not going to give the speculator any reason to want to add weather premium.

Has Wheat Topped?
The wheat market has already been removing weather premium he says and may have put in a spike top the day of the USDA report.

“It looks like it traded the worst news you could trade on the bad U.S. winter wheat crop,” he says.

The results of the Kansas Wheat Tour confirmed the 54 year low in the wheat crop USDA printed but that even failed to move the market so the worst news is priced in.

“They didn’t say it was good, but they said it was a little better than the USDA said. And remember, we are only the fifth largest producer in the world and we’re only the fifth largest exporter in the world. Russia, Ukraine looks great. They look like they could have a record wheat crop and others don’t look so bad either. So I think you have to say, how much premium can we add onto the market?”

Bullish Grains for 2027
So Hackett says he is still bullish for 2027 grain and cotton futures, especially with the weather set up.

“Our view is we have this significant El Nino weather pattern coming for the U.S., which means very good crops. But once we digest this crop, everything that I see going forward on weather, everything that I see on cost of production says to me that in 2027, we should be looking at prices considerably better than what we’ve just seen before this big break.”

Cattle Rally With Cash and Futures Discount
Cattle futures were higher on Friday with another week of record cash and continued tight supplies. So how long will that hold prices at these high levels?

Hackett says, “We don’t have the animals. And so unless, you know, somehow we’re able to import some higher quality beef. I mean, we’re bringing the lower quality side, but the higher quality we’re not. Unless the Mexican border opens up, or Brazilian tariffs are cut, it’s just hard to see how you could get a big break in this market.”

Plus, grilling season demand should continue to support.

He adds, “The cattle situation will take years to get ourselves out of this, not three to six months.”

China to Re-List U.S. Beef Plants
News also out on Friday afternoon that China is relisting 425 U.S. beef plants for export.

Hackett says the U.S. doesn’t have a whole lot of beef to export and prices may be too high for them to buy anyway.

“I would argue, do we really need to be importing beef to China? I mean, I’m sure every cattle producer wants the highest price he can possibly get, and I understand that. But at the same time, I mean, we’re dealing with a terrible prolonged structural shortage of very, very high beef prices. The president wanting and demanding that beef prices come down. It just seems to me like we’re at odds.”

Corteva Brands Seed And Genetics Business With New Name

Mon, 04 May 2026 21:34:00 GMT

Corteva announced on Monday that its advanced seed and genetics business, formerly operating under the placeholder “SpinCo,” will be branded as Vylor, Inc. The spin-off remains on track to become an independent company no later than the fourth quarter of 2026.

Corteva will continue to sell crop protection products – herbicides, fungicides, insecticides and biologicals.

For farmers who have spent decades planting Pioneer, Brevant and Hogemeyer branded seed products, the changes mark a massive consolidation of research and development power. Vylor will launch with a significant intellectual property portfolio, including more than 4,000 germplasm patents and 2,000 biotechnology patents, according to a Corteva press release.

Heritage Meets High-Tech

The branding is a deliberate nod to the past and the future of the American farm. The name “Vylor” is derived from valor, a tribute to the grit of U.S. farmers and workers who have helped “feed the world.”

Even the new logo carries a hidden meaning: the stylized “l” represents the shape of a single chromosome—the building block of the company’s genetics-first mission.

The company’s visual identity also honors its roots, using a color palette of green, maroon, and blue to pay homage to the Pioneer, Brevant, Hogemeyer and Corteva legacies.

A New Pipeline for the Field

Vylor isn’t just rebranding existing products, according to future Vylor CEO Chuck Magro. He says it is positioning itself to lead the next generation of “gamechanger” technologies. According to the announcement, farmers can expect a pipeline focused on:

Proprietary Hybrid Wheat: A long-sought breakthrough in wheat productivity.
Gene Editing Leadership: Faster development of traits to combat evolving pests and weather patterns.
Multi-Disease Resistance Corn: Reducing the reliance on over-the-top pesticide applications.
Next-Generation Biofuels: Expanding the profit potential of row crops beyond the food supply chain.

“Vylor traces its roots back a century, to a single idea: that innovation could transform agriculture,” Magro notes. “From food security to energy security... Vylor will be uniquely positioned to help solve some of the world’s toughest challenges.”

Global Footprint

Vylor enters the market from a position of dominance, boasting the largest seed production network in the world, Corteva reports. The brands under its umbrella already hold No. 1 and No. 2 market share positions in nearly every global region they serve, backed by a history of world-record yields in corn and soybeans.

While the corporate structure is changing, Corteva says Vylor’s “north star” remains the same: leveraging scientific expertise to help farmers feed and fuel a growing population. As the separation nears its 2026 finish line, Vylor signals an aggressive intent to “vye” for new opportunities in row crops and beyond.

Watch this video to learn more about Vylor.

EPA Opens Public Comment Period On Draft Fungicide Strategy

Mon, 04 May 2026 16:19:42 GMT

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is offering the U.S. public an opportunity to help shape the future of agricultural safety, unveiling a draft Fungicide Strategy designed to balance the needs of American farmers with the protection of the nation’s most vulnerable wildlife.

The proposal marks a significant step in the agency’s effort to meet its dual mandates under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA). By creating a more efficient and transparent framework for pesticide registration, the EPA says it aims to “safeguard more than 1,000 federally endangered and threatened species” while ensuring growers maintain the tools necessary to protect the nation’s food supply.

A New Framework for Modern Farming

The draft strategy focuses on conventional agricultural fungicides across the lower 48 states — an area covering approximately 41 million treated acres annually. Rather than a one-size-fits-all mandate, the proposal introduces a three-step framework:

Identify Impacts: Assessing potential population-level effects on listed species.
Mitigation Planning: Pinpointing specific measures to reduce those risks.
Targeted Application: Determining exactly where these protections are most needed based on where endangered and threatened species live and how fungicides move through the environment.

The agency emphasizes that while this strategy guides future regulatory actions, it does not impose immediate requirements. Instead, the strategy serves as a roadmap for upcoming registration reviews, with the EPA promising public input on every specific action before it is finalized.

Balancing Innovation and Conservation

Saying that it recognizes farmers are the backbone of the U.S. economy, the EPA’s draft includes several updates to provide greater flexibility. Notably, the plan expands options for reducing spray drift buffer distances and introduces new mitigation tools, such as the use of “guar gum” as a spray adjuvant.

"[American farmers] need a diverse toolbox of innovative agricultural technologies to manage crop disease, prevent resistance, and produce the affordable, nutritious food that feeds our country,” the EPA says, in a press release. “The draft Fungicide Strategy is designed to ensure those innovative tools remain available and that they are used in ways that protect the environment and endangered species.

How to Get Involved

In a push for transparency, the EPA has opened a 60-day public comment period to gather feedback from scientists, conservationists, Tribal partners and the agricultural community.

Public Comment: Stakeholders can review the strategy and submit formal feedback via (Docket: EPA-HQ-OPP-2026-2973) through June 29, 2026.
Informational Webinar: The agency will host a public webinar on May 20, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET to walk through the proposal and answer questions. Register here .

The EPA expects to review all public input and finalize the Fungicide Strategy by November 2026.

Rice Delphacid Expands Across Mid-South

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 16:22:00 GMT

First documented in Texas in 2015, the rice delphacid has gradually expanded its footprint. In 2025, it appeared in Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi, putting the Mid-South region’s rice industry on alert. While Texas growers have nearly a decade of experience managing the pest, other states are still learning how it behaves in local conditions.

Comparison of two rice plants: (Left) plant exhibiting split-stem traits; (Right) healthy, normal plant.

(Mississippi)

Texas: Managing an Evolving Threat

In Texas, rice delphacid is no longer a new threat; it’s an evolving one.

“In the three years I’ve been in this role, they’ve shown up earlier every year,” says Sam Rustom, Texas Extension rice specialist.

Once considered primarily a ratoon crop pest, delphacids are now appearing in main crop rice earlier in the season. In 2024, populations emerged in July. By 2025, they were detected as early as June.

“The most severe damage occurs from panicle differentiation to soft dough,” Rustom says. “This is when hoppers feed on the sugars and stored carbohydrates that are supposed to fill the grain, resulting in both yield and quality loss.”

Rustom recommends scouting as soon as rice transitions from vegetative to reproductive stages, especially in aromatic varieties, which appear particularly attractive to delphacids.

“Our recommendation has been to spray on first detection,” Rustom says. “When we let populations get out of control, they will stay out of control.”

Courier, an IGR available through a Section 18 exemption, is currently the primary management tool. While it targets nymphs and provides residual protection, long-term solutions like resistant varieties and improved insecticides for adults are still in development.

“It’s going to help bridge the gap – until we get long-term solutions,” Rustom says.

Rice delphacid observed on a rice plant.

(Mississippi)

Louisiana: Monitoring Migration and the Importance of Timing

In Louisiana, efforts are focused on early detection and understanding how the pest behaves under local conditions.

“We are doing a statewide monitoring survey for the delphacid,” says Tyler Musgrove, Louisiana Extension rice specialist.

He says the program was scheduled to begin on April 1. Researchers are using sweep nets, sticky cards and even a DVAC to track populations.

Louisiana’s rice-crawfish rotation system might also influence the pest’s survival.

“Rice and crawfish are grown in rotation – which means food resources and habitat may persist longer into the winter,” Musgrove says.

That extended availability of habitat ties into a larger question researchers are still working to answer. Does the pest survive locally, or must it reestablish each season?

“There’s a theory that rice delphacids don’t overwinter locally, but instead migrate in each year,” Musgrove says.

Based on 2024 observations, that migration could lead to peak pressure later in the season, with significant populations expected around July.

Even so, last year’s outbreaks pointed to one factor growers can control – timing.

“Our current recommendation to producers is to plant as early as possible within the recommended window,” Musgrove explains. “The rice that was hit the hardest was the rice that was planted the latest.”

He emphasizes planting date isn’t just important for rice, but across agriculture as a whole.

That trend held across multiple states in 2024, with later-planted fields in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas consistently experiencing the greatest pressure.

Rice delphacid observed on a rice plant.

(Arkansas)

Arkansas: Facing a Major Unknown

For Arkansas, 2026 might be the first true test.

“Time will tell,” says Nick Bateman, Arkansas crop entomologist. “We’ve had about six weeks’ worth of experience with it, so it’s a major unknown.”

Unlike Texas, Arkansas has little historical presence of the pest. Surveys conducted decades ago failed to detect either the insect or the virus it can carry.

Recent winter weather may have reduced early populations this year.

“That cold front – it looks like the weather should have been cold enough to knock them out,” Bateman says.

Still, migration from Texas remains a concern.

“There’s no telling if it will happen again this year,” Bateman says. “It wouldn’t surprise me if we deal with it on a yearly basis.”

As in Louisiana, planting dates could play a critical role.

“If we can get rice planted in April, I think we’ll outrun a lot of the major issues,” Bateman says.

Rice delphacid observed on a rice plant.

(Arkansas)

Proactive Scouting and Management Tips

Across all three states, one message is clear – scouting must start earlier and be more aggressive.

“They need to be sweeping it with a sweep net, particularly where vegetation is thick,” Bateman says.

Producers should watch for early signs of damage, including hopper burn, which is characterized by small, irregular patches of browning.

In Louisiana, Musgrove also recommends checking grassy areas around fields early in the season, where populations might establish before moving into rice.

Management options remain limited. Courier, the Section 18-approved insecticide, is currently the primary tool available across the region.

However, improper insecticide use might worsen the issue.

“When we treated for rice stink bug, the rice delphacid immediately followed,” Musgrove says, referencing pest resurgence.

Avoiding broad-spectrum pyrethroids might help reduce that risk.

A Looming Viral Threat

Beyond feeding damage, the rice delphacid presents an even greater concern – its ability to transmit Hoja Blanca virus. There is no cure once the infection occurs.

“You’ve got to control the insect in order to control the virus,” Musgrove says.

Although the virus has only been confirmed in Texas so far, researchers expect it to spread.

“It’s a matter of when, not if,” Musgrove says.

With limited research and increasing pressure, specialists agree vigilance will be critical moving forward.

Corteva Unveils Executive Team Lineup For Its Two-Way Company Split

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 14:58:00 GMT

Corteva Inc. has reached a pivotal milestone in its corporate restructuring, announcing the executive leadership teams that will guide its transition into two independent, publicly traded entities.

The separation, which will result in the formation of New Corteva and SpinCo, is expected to be finalized in the fourth quarter of 2026.

New Corteva: A Focus on Crop Protection

Luther “Luke” Kissam has been appointed as the future chief executive officer of New Corteva, the entity that will retain the company’s crop protection portfolio. Kissam is scheduled to join the firm on June 1 as CEO.

Corteva’s Greg Page says the company board of directors selected Kissam following a global search, citing his ability to drive growth through innovation. Page notes that Kissam’s history of leading public companies and delivering market-focused solutions will benefit farmers and shareholders alike, according to a company press release.

Kissam brings a background in both agriculture and specialty chemicals to the new role. He previously served as the chairman and CEO of Albemarle Corporation and held legal and executive positions at Monsanto and Merisant Company.

Joining Kissam at New Corteva in key leadership roles will be:

Jeff Rudolph, chief financial officer
Brook Cunningham, chief commercial officer
Ralph Ford, chief integrated operations officer
Reza Rasoulpour, chief technology officer
Jim Alcombright, chief digital and information officer

SpinCo: Advancing Seed and Genetics

The second entity, provisionally named SpinCo, will operate as a standalone seed and genetics company. This business will focus on elite germplasm and cutting-edge biotechnologies, including gene editing and molecular breeding for row crops.

Current Corteva CEO Chuck Magro will transition to the role of SpinCo CEO at the time of formal separation. Magro says SpinCo’s success will be built on technological investments that allow farmers to increase yields in row crops and potentially new markets.

Along with Magro, the leadership team for SpinCo will include:

David Johnson, chief financial officer
Judd O’Connor, chief commercial and operations officer
Sam Eathington, chief technology officer
Audrey Grimm, chief people officer
Brian Lutz, chief digital and information officer
Jennifer Johnson, chief legal officer

When Will Grains Become Numb to War Headlines? Have Cattle Already Done That?

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 20:29:03 GMT

Corn and soybeans ended lower on Thursday with cotton, wheat and cattle higher.

Corn and Soybeans Fade Despite Skyrocketing Crude Oil
Corn and soybeans ended lower Thursday fading early strength tied to skyrocketing crude oil prices after President Trump addressed the nation and said the war in Iran would continue and could escalate if Iran doesn’t reach a deal.

Corn and soybeans ran into chart resistance and were also capped by the strong dollar but Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says those markets are also experiencing war fatigue and are tired of chasing every headline.

“I also think when you think about renewable diesel, the EPA, the new rules that the EPA put out, we’re not going to alter that too much depending on what crude is doing. So, when i really look at soybeans and corn I don’t really think there’s as much an energy component as
the market has kind of been worried about. In terms of fertilizer we know soybeans don’t really worry too much about fertilizer prices and corn, unless the weather for planting is not great, I don’t really think producers are going to change their intentions too much.”

So he thinks the market will soon move beyond geopolitics and back to weather.

Markets Setting a New Norm
The crude oil market as well as the grain markets are setting a new norm says Hackett. So, what is that norm?

“If we assume that we’re not just going to leave Iran and everything’s going to go back to the way it was, I mean, I don’t think anyone really believes we’re going back to the way it was. And I think what’s likely going to be that we’re going to keep a ongoing long-term geopolitical premium in the crude oil market and even in the international LNG market and in the fertilizer prices. My feeling is $75 is your low end during good times in the market’s perception. And I think $110 is the high side. I think that’s your new normal in terms of where the market can kind of bounce back and forth depending on how it feels about things.”

He thinks that is positive for higher soybean and corn prices depending on how long the war lasts and the outcome and its impact on energy markets.

“Who’s running the Strait of Hormuz? How much gets through? Who’s policing the Strait of Hormuz? How much of the infrastructure that was damaged, supposedly, how long will it actually take to bring that back on to the marketplace? Is it six months? Is it three months? Is it a year? These are all unanswered questions that we’re going to need clarity on once we feel we’re at a point where this situation has stabilized and we can make these determinations.”

When Will Grains Divorce From the Headlines?
Hackett thinks the grain markets are getting close and will soon turn towards weather for direction.

“I think we’re going to start to move away from it. We’re going to get into the planting season. We’re going to watch planting progress. We’re going to watch how things are progressing.”

He is keeping an eye on the weather and a strong El Nino pattern for the growing season.

“Generally speaking, historically, since 1950, El Ninos have always produced trend line to above trend line yields. The market is going to start to have to factor in the fact that we are probably going to have very good corn and soybean and spring wheat crops and factor that in to the equation of what the market needs to do from current prices. It’s going to be very, very hard for grain markets to take out and move substantially higher if we don’t have weather problems to worry about during the U.S. growing season.”

Will That Uncertainty Keep Funds Defending Their Long Position?
The funds have added to their long position in corn and soybeans and so with the uncertainty about weather, does that keep the funds defending those longs?

Hackett says they are going to defend the longs until they are sure how weather is going to turn out but once El Nino develops and the weather pattern changes they will head for the door.

“I think they’re going to quickly head for the exits as they typically do if weather’s good heading into August, where we’ve historically continue to make harvest lows repeatedly over the last five to seven years.”

Money Flow
So some of buying in the grains has been on money flow out of equities into grains, which are undervalued. So is that move just about done?

Hackett says, “I mean, there’s been a lot of new reaction of buying agriculture because of high fertilizer prices, the long term impact that that has on production, which in fact does if it remains the longer haul. But I do believe we’re not going to see much more of a rotation into
the ag group without getting Mother Nature involved. You can only do this for so long. You can only attract so much capital flows. And then you actually need to see the supplies actually get tight.”

He says that only happens if the U.S. has a poor growing season, which is unlikely.

Wheat Holding Weather Premium?
The wheat market was slightly higher on Friday but lower for the week. There were some rains in HRW areas but coverage wasn’t broad. So is the market trying to hold some weather premium?

“Yeah, some of the western parts of Kansas and the western parts of Oklahoma and the western parts of Nebraska did not catch those rains. It’s still a big swath of the KC winter wheat belt that needs the rains.”

He’s more worried about the likelihood for a flash frost coming in late April, early May.

“A lot of our work says we could be worried about kind of a cold snap that could come in at the wrong time. That might be the weather anomaly to pay more attention to than the dry weather.”

Some of this rally, though, in wheat has been technical and adding some overseas geopolitical premium.

Cotton in Uptrend
The cotton market was higher on Thursday and for the week and is in a clear uptrend. Hackett says the market has been getting help from higher crude oil prices and historically low planted acres for a second year.

“When we look at the blends that most clothes that you buy at the store, the blends are mostly polyester, which is petroleum based and cotton fiber. When polyester is economical, they increase the use of those polyester fibers, reducing the cotton fibers. Right now, the price of cotton relative to the price of polyester is near historic lows, meaning. There is every incentive to increase the blends of cotton and reduce the blends of polyester. And in order to get ourselves into a more normal relationship, Michelle, we’d have to get ourselves into the, let’s say, low to mid 80 cent range on December cotton.”

So he thinks there’s more upside to be had in the market. He also doesn’t buy into the 9.64 million acre planting intentions figure from USDA.

“All our independent work, all the customers we work with in the cotton area, all the economics, we look at it from comparative crops, the fertilizer situation, the cost of equipment, all of it says that we are not going to plant one acre more than we did last year. And we’re sticking to the idea that come June, when we get the June planting report, we’re going to see those numbers come down and be more in line with what we
saw last year.”

Live Cattle Hit Contract Highs Chasing Cash
Cattle futures were higher on Thursday with new contract highs in the deferred live cattle futures cashing cash trade.

A light trade was reported in most areas Thursday afternoon, with Southern live deals at $245 to $246, $8 to $9 higher than last week’s weighted averages. Northern dressed business is marked at $380 to mostly $385, $13 higher than last week’s weighted averages.

Hackett says continued tight supplies are also driving the market. Some herd rebuilding is starting which is further tightening available cattle numbers and that is being priced into the live cattle.

He thinks the market can continue higher with strong demand as long as higher energy prices don’t push the economy into recession.

“Which we don’t think would happen as long as we stay at $110 a barrel or less.”

The market was also impressive as it shook off the lower equity markets and unless the stock market corrects by 20% he thinks the cattle market will stay intact.

USDA Faces Record-Low Acreage Survey Response as NASS Seeks to Rebuild Trust with Farmers

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 17:48:45 GMT

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the March 2026 Prospective Plantings report Tuesday, and with no major surprises, the story this year may not just what farmers plan to plant, but how few farmers actually responded. Only 37.6% of producers participated, marking the lowest response rate in the survey’s history.

(Source: USDA)

For NASS , the implications go beyond a number. According to Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board, the low participation highlights a growing trust gap between farmers and the agency.

“We’ve got a bit of a trust issue out there,” Honig tells U.S. Farm Report. “That’s what I read on social media. That’s what I read in various farmer comments. That’s an issue right now… something we’ve got to work on rebuilding. We’re open to hearing what we can do to help rebuild that. We had a session at the Outlook Forum to talk about it. We’ve got the data user meeting coming up in just a few weeks on April 22nd. And we’ve got a request for information out there. We are seeking input from our users and our customers to tell us what we can do better, what we can do to help reestablish that trust. That’ll hopefully get farmers willing to respond to these surveys again.”

NASS @usda_nass is a small group of statisticians. They're good people. They have a tough job. Big Ag is much more nefarious. I think lots of people have it backwards. https://t.co/14ZOQW4m6m
— Joe Vaclavik (@StandardGrain) April 1, 2026

Even before the results were released this week, Honig told Farm Journal farmer participation is more important than ever, but he was concerned fewer farmers may participate, especially if they’re frustrated .

Honig emphasizes that rebuilding trust is critical because accurate data ensures farmers have a level playing field in agricultural markets.

“What we’re doing is to benefit everyone in agriculture, specifically the farmers, because we’re out here level in the playing field,” he says. “If we don’t produce accurate numbers, there are large companies out there that are going to be in a much better position to know what’s going on. We don’t want farmers to be at a disadvantage. But in order to keep that working smoothly, we do also need the cooperation of the farmers. We need to work together. We want to work together. And anything I can do to help make that better, I’d love to hear it because I’d love to do it.”

Regional Patterns, Response Challenges

Even with a low response rate for this report, Honig says response rates vary across the country each year, with certain regions consistently harder to reach. Honig noted that the Plains states—from Kansas up through the Dakotas—pose ongoing challenges.

“Response typically varies across the country,” he said. “Some of the toughest areas to get cooperation are through the Plains states… this time was no exception. But when you know where you’ve got these regional dips, we make some adjustments with our sampling in those areas. We didn’t see any change in the pattern of where response is higher and lower this time.”

Seth Meyer, who was the chief economist for USDA for the past five years, before returning to the University of Missouri as the director of FAPRI earlier this year, points out this is simply what farmers intend to plant, and these numbers will likely change.

“This is like watching the beginning of a negotiation. And so this is a really a survey based upon farmers’ response of what they might do, what they’re thinking about doing,” says Meyer. “And you’re kind of watching the bid process with the market, but you’re only seeing the farmers offer. Now you got to see the market go back and forth a bit.”

Timing of Responses Could Be Key

In an effort to increase transparency, NASS released daily response rates for the first time, giving analysts and farmers insight into when the data came in, which is key this year due to the ongoing conflict in Iran.

“Well, really two reasons. One is we try to really double down on transparency and rebuilding relationships out there, making it as clear about what these data represent as possible. We felt that was a key piece of information that we could share. So you can see within that two-and-a-half-week window when the data came in, what farmers were thinking when they reported—it’s really critical for this report. Specifically, there have been some events during that period that really had a big impact on what farmers might be thinking. Fertilizer prices spiked and things of that nature. We just wanted folks to be able to look at the data and see for themselves: what do you think the data really mean, knowing that this is when farmers actually told us what their intentions were?”

(USDA)

Meyer says by NASS reporting the share of farmer responses they received by day, from February 27 to March 15, it could help shine light on the share of responses that were submitted before the war started.

“And you know why [Lance] did it this year? Because we had the war with Iran beginning towards the end February and then continuing on. And so I think what happened is there’s something that initially folks might have thought was going to be a short action continues until today,” says Meyer. “So I think it was important for him to know where we were at, how many responses he’s getting because we saw fertilizer prices climb immediately, but then stay high as time went on. I think it was a critical piece of information for NASS, to say this is the response farmers were giving us and putting that in context of high oil and high fertilizer

Noticed this one, good context for this year, what was the response rate? https://t.co/f7YSGyezxG
— Seth Meyer (@SethMeyerMU) March 31, 2026

Market analysts say global events and regional fertilizer access likely influenced farmer responses to the Prospective Plantings survey. Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain agrees that timing could have played a role in this survey, but it’s hard to put an exact percentage on how many acres could possibly change.

“The surveys were being taken as the Iran and fertilizer situation was all unfolding. I’ve heard differing things about the fertilizer situation. Some of it appears to be regional. Feels to me, and based on what I’ve heard, farmers in the central Corn Belt and maybe in the eastern Corn Belt also had a lot of their nitrogen needs locked up prior to the initial attacks in Iran. And it seems like in some of, call them fringe areas or western Corn Belt areas, maybe not so much,” says Vaclavik.

He also points to market price shifts as another factor affecting planting intentions.

“Corn prices did rise at least momentarily following the initial attacks, and that may have helped to offset some of the fertilizer increase… but now we’ve given back all of those gains,” Vaclavik said.

The combination of global events, regional fertilizer access, and short-term price swings highlights the complexity of interpreting early March planting intentions, underscoring why NASS emphasizes that the report captures intentions, not final plantings.”

Crop Trends

While the report itself revealed some expected shifts, they were largely secondary to the trust and response issues. Corn acreage is projected at 95.3 million acres, down 3% from 2025, while soybeans are projected up 4% to 84.7 million acres. Wheat acreage continues a long-term decline, hitting a record low, with both winter and spring wheat contributing to the drop. Rice acres also declined slightly.

Honig describes these numbers as consistent with trends but reinforced the importance of interpreting them carefully.

“There weren’t a lot of surprises in this report,” he said. “But certainly some interesting numbers, and we want people to know this is what farmers were thinking in early March, given the economic environment and input prices at that time.”

Even with declining corn acreage and rising soybean intentions, analysts say the March Prospective Plantings report was largely in line with expectations. Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, describes the report as “rather an even keel situation.”

“No, I think it was tied,” Basse says. “When you lose three and a half million acres and gain three and a half million of soybeans, three and a half million acres of corn loss, you end up with rather an even keel situation. We need those extra, if you will, soybean acres. I would still say the market has a lean to buy more soybean acres relative to corn, but there’s also a strong historical tendency that we find additional corn acres by the June report. Over the last five to ten years, we tend to go up somewhere around two million acres in total. So again, maybe not that much this year because of [market conditions].”

With historical trends suggesting corn acreage may still rise slightly before final plantings are set, keeping the market closely watching June acreage updates.

Looking Ahead to June

With planting season underway, the June acreage report will provide an updated picture of plantings. As Basse pointed out, if you look at what history shows, corn acreage tends to increase by 2 million acres from March to June. But NASS officials emphasize that rebuilding farmer participation is critical for the reliability of all future reports.

“Absolutely,” Honig said. “I want to do everything I can to help reestablish that trust. I want to hear from folks: tell me, from your perspective, what we can do to help rebuild that trust. This is a partnership. Accurate numbers are critical for farmers. We need your cooperation, and we want to work together.”

Cotton Prices Rally, But Reality is Growers Are Still Chasing Break-Even for 2026

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 19:23:54 GMT

Cotton futures pushed to contract highs this week, giving producers a much-needed lift after a prolonged stretch of difficult market conditions. While the rally has sparked renewed attention across the cotton belt, the underlying drivers reflect a complex mix of market positioning, global uncertainty and ongoing demand concerns.

The price momentum is offering a glimmer of hope as many cotton farmers have faced three to four years of below break-even prices,
which has pushed farmers, and the entire cotton industry, to a breaking point.

Darren Hudson, associate dean at Texas Tech University and director of the International Center for Agricultural Competitiveness, says the recent strength in cotton is less about a dramatic change in fundamentals and more about how traders are repositioning in the market. After an extended period of bearish sentiment, that shift alone has been enough to generate upward momentum in prices.

“Managed money has been heavily short in cotton,” Hudson says. “What we’re seeing is those traders reducing their net short positions, and that’s creating buying pressure as they come out of those positions.”

December cotton contract

(AgWeb)

That unwinding of short positions has injected energy into the market at a time when outside influences are also shaping trader psychology. While some participants point to rising crude oil prices as a supportive factor, Hudson says that connection is often overstated and rooted more in perception than reality. Even so, sentiment can still influence short-term price movement, particularly when markets are already looking for a reason to turn higher.

“There’s always this sentiment that when oil prices go up, cotton prices go up,” Hudson says. “That’s kind of an old wives’ tale. Polyester is still really cheap, so it would take a large and sustained increase in oil prices to really shift demand in a meaningful way.”

Global Supply Questions Add Support

Beyond trader activity, there are also developing global supply considerations that are adding another layer of uncertainty, according to Hudson. South America, particularly Brazil, remains a key player in the cotton market, but questions are emerging about this year’s crop. Late planting of the second crop has shortened the growing season, which could affect yields, even if total production remains relatively solid.

“You do have some rumblings out of South America,” Hudson says. “The crop is probably a little smaller than in past years, and that late planting shortens the season for cotton more than other crops.”

Even when Brazil produces a large crop, Hudson says infrastructure limitations continue to play a role in how quickly that cotton reaches the global market. The country’s ability to gin and move cotton efficiently has not kept pace with production growth, creating timing issues that can influence global supply availability.

“They basically gin cotton year-round,” Hudson says. “They just don’t have the capacity yet to process everything quickly, so there are always questions about timing and when that cotton becomes available for shipment.”

Demand Still Lags Expectations

Despite these supportive elements, demand remains a concern and continues to cap how far the rally can realistically go. Export sales and shipments from the U.S. are lagging behind expectations, which limits the bullish case from a fundamental standpoint.

“We’re behind on export sales and shipments,” Hudson says. “That’s not bullish by any stretch of the imagination.”

At the same time, the cotton market operates differently than grains when it comes to available supplies. With relatively tight stocks, even modest changes in demand can have an outsized impact on price direction. That dynamic is particularly important as traders watch for potential buying activity from key importers.

“We don’t have much wiggle room,” Hudson says. “If someone comes in and commits to buying a million bales, that’s going to move the market because we don’t have a lot of excess supply sitting around.”

China’s Role Still Matters at the Margin

That sensitivity to demand helps explain why ongoing trade discussions with China are being closely monitored. While China is no longer the dominant buyer of U.S. cotton, any incremental purchases still matter at the margin and can quickly shift market sentiment.

“China is still buying some U.S. cotton, but it’s not the largest buyer anymore,” Hudson says. “Places like Vietnam and Bangladesh have taken on a bigger role.”

China is reportedly signaling openness to buying more American farm products , even as broader geopolitical tensions remain high. Reports say President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping held what they described as “remarkably stable” talks over the weekend in Paris, with agriculture emerging as a key topic. But what caught the cotton market’s attention is the fact China is reportedly considering increasing purchases of U.S. goods such as beef, poultry and other crops, while remaining committed to major soybean imports in the years ahead. That helped fuel the cotton market.

Hudson says it’s important to remember cotton reacts differently than soybeans to trade headlines because of that diversified demand base. Negative news tends to have a muted impact, while positive developments can generate a stronger price response.

“If China comes in and buys additional cotton, that’s new demand,” Hudson says. “That’s something the market has to react to, and it can push prices higher pretty quickly.”

Reality is Profitability Remains Out of Reach

While the recent rally has improved sentiment, it has not yet translated into profitability for most producers. Years of financial losses, combined with rising input costs, have left many operations in a precarious position heading into another growing season.

Hudson says the reality on the farm is that current price levels still fall short of what producers need to break even, especially when factoring in basis and total production costs. That gap continues to influence planting decisions and long-term outlooks for the industry.

“Break-even is probably somewhere between 78 and 83 cents,” Hudson says. “When you back off basis, even 76- or 77-cent futures only gets you to about a 73-cent farm price.”

That margin pressure is compounded by tightening credit conditions, as lenders become more cautious after multiple years of losses in the sector. Producers are increasingly focused on simply maintaining operations rather than building equity.

“A lot of producers have been hit with several bad years,” Hudson says. “Banks are getting stingy, and they really need that 80-cent range to have a chance to break even.”

Even with weaker grain prices, cotton has not yet reached a level that would encourage widespread acreage shifts. According to the National Cotton Council’s (NCC) Planting Intentions Survey, U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 9.0 million cotton acres this spring, a 3.2% decline from 2025, with a nearly 21% drop in the Mid-South. Input costs, particularly fertilizer and fuel, remain elevated, limiting flexibility for producers evaluating cropping decisions.

“There’s just not a lot of incentive to move acres into cotton right now,” Hudson says. “The price just isn’t high enough, especially with input costs where they are.”

Long-Term Pressure from Synthetics

Looking longer term, Hudson says the industry faces a structural challenge that extends beyond short-term price movements: competition from synthetic fibers. As global textile demand continues to evolve, cotton has steadily lost market share to cheaper alternatives like polyester.

“Synthetic demand continues to erode cotton’s share globally,” Hudson says.

He says one of the key lessons for the cotton industry is recognizing where purchasing decisions are actually made. While past marketing efforts focused heavily on consumers, Hudson says the real influence lies with brands and retailers, who determine fiber content long before products reach store shelves.

“Consumers don’t make that choice,” Hudson says. “Brands and retailers decide the fiber mix months before that product ever shows up in a store.”

That shift in strategy is now being reflected in industry efforts to engage more directly with manufacturers and apparel companies, with the goal of increasing cotton usage at the production level rather than relying on consumer preference alone.

Cautious Optimism Ahead

Despite the ongoing challenges, Hudson says there is cautious optimism as the market shows signs of life. The recent rally, while still fragile, provides an opportunity for producers to manage risk if prices continue to improve.

“If we can get back into that 75- to 78-cent range, producers should start looking at locking some of that in,” Hudson says. “It may not build equity, but it can help cover costs and keep things moving.”

For now, the cotton market remains in a delicate balance. Prices are supported by shifting market dynamics, but still weighed down by structural and economic pressures that will take time to resolve. But if cotton prices can at least reach break-even for this year, it could help save a industry that seems to be drowning in headwinds.