As the market awaits Thursday’s Acreage report, there are plenty of opinions about the balance between corn and soybean acres planted this spring.
With weather woes in South America sparking a sharp rally this spring and record old-crop sales showing strong demand, it made sense for many growers to move corn acres into soybeans, according to analysts.
“I’ve heard a lot of talk about a lot of soybean acres being out there,” said Jack Scoville, vice president of the PRICE Futures Group in Chicago, which is expecting 84 million acres of soybeans and 92.08 million acres of corn in Thursday’s USDA report.
Prospective Soybean Acres
USDA released its soybean prospective planting report in March. © Christopher Walljasper/Farm Journal
Weather is one reason. “There were a lot of drowned-out spots this year. It was a very wet spring in parts of the Midwest,” Scoville said. “Some guys just couldn’t get the corn planted—it got too late for them, so rather than take the yield hit, they looked to beans instead.”
Overall, the average trade estimates for the June 30 reports are 92.896 million acres of corn, 83.834 million acres of soybeans, and 49.868 million all-wheat acres.
In addition to market factors, analysts also point to weather—both this year and last year’s—as playing a role in the expected increase in soybean acres. Last year, for example, heavy rains in many states forced numerous farmers to take prevent plant on their fields.
That has not been a factor this year. In fact, DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing in Britton, S.D., predicted less prevent plant acres would account for an increase of 4.4 million soybean acres over intentions-- for a record-breaking 86.8 million soybean acres planted.
“The wild card in this year's outlook is the limited amount of expected prevented plant acres versus last year,” agreed Angie Setzer, vice president of grain at Citizens Elevator in Charlotte, Mich. “It is possible we could see an increase in soybean acres without much of an overall reduction in any other intentions.”
Bosse has similar thoughts. Planting progress was generally right on time, except for the Delta, so he said he thinks there is a good chance that farmers got their corn acres planted after all.
In fact, he thinks that both corn and soybean acreage to increase in the June report. “The math continues to add up to more acres,” he said.
Prospective Corn Acres
USDA released its corn prospective planting report in March. © Christopher Walljasper/Farm Journal
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