3 Potential Market Movers in the Acreage Report

June 29, 2018 09:55 AM

At 11 a.m. CDT, USDA will release its annual Acreage report. This report historically creates some excitement for the grain markets. Will this year follow suit?

Stephen Nicholson, senior analyst for grain and oilseeds at RaboResearch, encourages farmers to watch a few key numbers.

  1. Corn Acres: Will they stay at 88 million acres or go to 89 million acres? 

    “When we analyze the market now, the market has pretty well settled on 89 million acres and 174 bu./acre, and the market is trading on those fundamentals,” Nicholson says. “If we get 89 million acres, the market will go, ‘That’s what we thought,” and move on. But if we get above 89 million, you’ll get a little downslide in the market.”

    However, if the corn acreage number stays at 88 million, he says, that could be friendly to the market and prices could have a positive reaction.
  2. Harvested Wheat Acres: As of the June 12 Crop Production report, USDA pegs winter wheat production at 1.20 billion bushels, which is down 6% from last year. Where will the final harvested what acres come in at? 

    “Kansas, Oklahoma and Nebraska have had a tough winter and tough spring—it has been very dry and hot,” Nicholson says. 
  3. Corn and Soybean Stocks: “The expectations are we’ll see corn and soybean stocks at all-time records for June 1,” he says. “That could be one of those things that puts an explanation point and the market goes down.”

Read More

How USDA Collects Acreage Report Data?

Analyst: Higher Prices In Future With Lower 2018 Ending Corn Stocks

Rest of the Story: A New Cold Tariff-War

Did Commodities Post the Proverbial “V” Bottom?

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