9 Market Analysts Share Advice

December 17, 2018 01:04 PM
 
Geopolitical forces, excessive soybean supplies and a likely shift to more corn acres create volatile corn and soybean markets for 2019.

Geopolitical forces, excessive soybean supplies and a likely shift to more corn acres create volatile corn and soybean markets for 2019. While your grain marketing plan faces many headwinds, don’t be surprised when a few tailwinds provide opportunities for you to capture profits. Keep in mind these recommendations by nine commodity analysts as you navigate the coming year. 

On a scale of 1 to 6, where do you stand for corn and soybeans in 2019?

1 = Bearish

6 = Bullish


Brian Basting, Advance Trading

Whether marketing anticipated production or bushels in the bin, using options and cash sales will allow you to set a floor but remain flexible in the event of a rally. Monitor cash basis trends and carry in the futures market.

Corn 1 2 3 4 5 6

Soybeans 1 2 3 4 5 6


Bill Biedermann, Allendale Inc.

Maintaining ownership offers the best potential asset gain. But, we all need cash flow. If you have to sell, replace it with futures, or if you’re not comfortable with that, options. For 2019, get started at $4.20 or profitable levels.

Corn 1 2 3 4 5 6

Soybeans 1 2 3 4 5 6


Naomi Blohm, Stewart-Peterson

Quickly figure your cost of production, understand realistic price targets and get your cash orders working at your elevator sooner rather than later. This is the year to be knowledgeable about all marketing tools.

Corn 1 2 3 4 5 6

Soybeans 1 2 3 4 5 6


Richard Brock, Brock & Associates

If prices reach breakeven, there’s nothing wrong with selling some of your production. But remember the market has no conscience—it doesn’t care about your breakeven. Its job is to ration supply.

Corn 1 2 3 4 5 6

Soybeans 1 2 3 4 5 6


Alan Brugler, Brugler Marketing & Management

Three buckets: “Make me do it” when prices are at least 20¢ above cost of production. Make sales above cost of production during growing season or harvest for Jan. 1 delivery. Put crops in the bin for returns on storage.

Corn 1 2 3 4 5 6

Soybeans 1 2 3 4 5 6


Mark Gold, Top Third Ag Marketing

To market 2019 crops, use a long put option to protect the downside. Use long call options to replace cash sales. Use long options and cash to manage risk.

Corn 1 2 3 4 5 6

Soybeans 1 2 3 4 5 6


Ray Grabanski, Progressive Ag

Storing cash grain and locking basis and futures at separate times when each are favorable can usually net another 10¢ to 20¢ per bushel on your net cash price.

Corn 1 2 3 4 5 6

Soybeans 1 2 3 4 5 6


Angie Setzer, Citizens Grain

Watch to see if soybean exports react to the larger supply by spreading sales and shipments out across the marketing year, rather than loading heavy on the front end.

Corn 1 2 3 4 5 6

Soybeans 1 2 3 4 5 6


Bob Utterback, Utterback Marketing Services

Consider fence row to fence row corn acres and limited, if any, soybeans. Be 100% sold if December 2019 corn reaches $4.05 to $4.20.

Corn 1 2 3 4 5 6

Soybeans 1 2 3 4 5 6


The analysis and recommendations for 2019 marketing plans continue at bit.ly/2019-bull-vs-bear

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