Soybean Bulls Starting to Fade A Bit

12:00AM Jul 16, 2008
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     November soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday closed lower and closed at a fresh three-week low close. While no serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted as prices have backed well down from the contract high of $16.36 3/4 a bushel, scored on July 3, the soybean bulls have begun to fade a bit and need to show fresh power soon.
    A close in November soybeans below solid technical support at the July low of $14.81 would begin to produce some significant near-term technical damage to begin to suggest that at least a near-term market top is in place.
    For the soybean bulls to regain some fresh upside near-term technical momentum they would have to push and close November futures prices back above solid technical resistance at this week's high of $15.83 1/2.
    The soybean bears can put forth an argument that a bearish descending triangle pattern is forming on the daily bar chart, with a close below support at $14.73 3/4 then being the beginning of a bearish downside "breakout" from that chart pattern.
    From a Fibonacci technical perspective, November soybeans are not yet close to being in any technical danger. The 38.2 percent retracement level of the price move from the April low of $10.45 1/4 to the contract high of $16.36 3/4 comes in at $14.11, which is still well below present prices. The more important 50% retracement level of the aforementioned price move comes in at $13.41.
    Importantly, this time of year the weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt are generally the major market factors for soybeans. An unexpected shift in weather forecasts for the Corn Belt would trump technicals regarding market importance. August is arguably the most important growing month for soybeans in the Corn Belt.