Questions about U.S. corn and soybean acres in 2017 have captivated farmers and traders for months. But don’t overlook the fact that on the eve of USDA’s March 31 Planting Intentions report, grain stocks are higher than a year ago, says Don Roose, U.S. Commodities.
“What do we have for grain on hand as of March 1? To put it in perspective, you’re probably going to be somewhere around 750 [million] to 800 million bushels of corn more than a year ago … ,” Roose tells “AgDay” host Clinton Griffiths on the Agribusiness Update segment for Thursday, March 30, 2017. “You’re probably going to have soybeans 110 [million] to 120 million bushels more than a year ago. Wheat probably 250 [million] bushels to 270 million bushels more than a year ago. The stocks are probably going to be something that’s going to be a big focus.”
Yet acreage remains front and center on the radar. Roose expects any surprises will stem from corn or soybeans racking up more acres than the market anticipates. That could happen if corn nears 93 million acres, soybeans reach 88 million to 89 million acres or both.
“Be careful for a surprise where we just have more acres than you think,” says Roose, though don’t expect prices to swing as wildly as in the past. It’s unlikely the market will see a soybean move of 60 cents or a corn move of 40 cents as it did when commodity prices were higher, he says.